一、發生趨勢
根據(ju)秋季(ji)各地病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)情(qing)實況(kuang)、常年病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)情(qing)況(kuang)及(ji)未來天氣(qi)趨勢綜合分析，預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji) 2015 年全(quan)省秋季(ji)蔬(shu)菜主要病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)總體(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)、局(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)（ 3 （ 4 ）級），主要病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)有霜霉病(bing)(bing)、灰(hui)霉病(bing)(bing)、疫病(bing)(bing)、小菜蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)、甜菜夜蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)、斜(xie)(xie)紋夜蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)、豆(dou)(dou)野螟(ming)等(deng)。其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)霜霉病(bing)(bing)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)、局(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)（ 3 （ 4 ）級）；灰(hui)霉病(bing)(bing)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)、局(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)（ 3 （ 4 ）級）；辣(la)椒疫病(bing)(bing)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)、局(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)（ 3 （ 4 ）級）；小菜蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)、菜青蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)、川西局(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)（ 3 （ 4 ）級）；甜菜夜蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)、斜(xie)(xie)紋夜蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)、棉鈴蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)等(deng)夜蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)科(ke)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 4 級）；豆(dou)(dou)野螟(ming)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 3 級）。
二、預測依據
1. 霜(shuang)霉(mei)病(bing)發生(sheng)與上年相當，局部偏(pian)重。監測(ce)點(dian)調(diao)查，白菜、黃(huang)瓜(gua)霜(shuang)霉(mei)病(bing)平(ping)均病(bing)株(zhu)率(lv) 3.29% 和 24.66% ，與上年同(tong)期相當。漢源縣近期調(diao)查，黃(huang)瓜(gua)霜(shuang)霉(mei)病(bing)平(ping)均病(bing)株(zhu)率(lv) 75% ，平(ping)均病(bing)葉率(lv)達 40% 。
2. 灰霉病(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生輕于上年。監(jian)測顯示(shi)，全省辣(la)椒、茄子(zi)、番茄發(fa)(fa)(fa)生面積比(bi)分(fen)別(bie)為(wei) 16.32% 、 27.65% 、 18.69% ，分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)上年同(tong)期低(di) 11.56 、 1.36 和 0.1 個百分(fen)點；平均(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)株(zhu)率分(fen)別(bie)為(wei) 3.13% 、 2.31% 、 5.33% ，分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)上年同(tong)期低(di) 8.79 、 2.39 和 10.34 個百分(fen)點。當前川中局部(bu)灰霉病(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生重。簡陽(yang)辣(la)椒灰霉病(bing)、番茄灰霉病(bing)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)株(zhu)率達 12.35% 和 31.26% ，但均(jun)(jun)(jun)低(di)于上年同(tong)期。
3. 辣椒疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)發(fa)生程度輕于去(qu)年同期，局部(bu)偏(pian)重。全省辣椒疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)發(fa)病(bing)(bing)面(mian)積比(bi)(bi)、病(bing)(bing)株率及(ji)病(bing)(bing)果率分(fen)別(bie)為 25.08% 、 8.48% 、 3.36% ，分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)(bi)上年同期低 14.68 、 3.28 和(he) 7.56 個百分(fen)點(dian)。彭州市近期調查(cha)，辣椒疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)株率及(ji)病(bing)(bing)果率分(fen)別(bie)為 28.6% 和(he) 17.64% 。
4. 小(xiao)菜(cai)蛾(e)(e)、菜(cai)青蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)局部地(di)區蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口基(ji)數大。全省前(qian)期(qi)(qi)小(xiao)菜(cai)蛾(e)(e)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv) 12.2% 、平均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang) 73.5 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，分別比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)低 44.29% 和 25% ；菜(cai)青蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv) 22.1% ，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)低 17.53 個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分點；平均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)殘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang) 138.23 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)少 10.1 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。當前(qian)，川(chuan)西局部蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)較高(gao)。彭州市小(xiao)菜(cai)蛾(e)(e)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv) 14.1% ，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)高(gao) 1.7 個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分點，平均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang) 73 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)多 16 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；菜(cai)青蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv) 51.2% ，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)高(gao) 12.4 個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分點，平均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang) 371 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)多 244 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。
5. 夜蛾科害蟲局部燈(deng)下蛾量大。全省(sheng)辣椒(jiao)煙(yan)青蟲及棉鈴蟲平均(jun)駐果率(lv)分(fen)別為 3.36% 和 1.87% ，分(fen)別比(bi)上年同期(qi)低 55.56% 和 68.41% 。東坡區斜紋(wen)夜蛾有蟲株率(lv) 28-55% ，平均(jun) 37.5% ，每百葉蟲量 73-285 頭，平均(jun) 135 頭。截止 7 月 28 日 ，夾江縣單個斜紋(wen)夜蛾性誘劑電子測(ce)報(bao)點誘蛾總(zong)數達 1500 頭。
6. 豆(dou)(dou)野螟為害普(pu)遍(bian)，局部發生偏(pian)重(zhong)。全省(sheng)平均豆(dou)(dou)莢(jia)被害率 5.03% ，比(bi)上年(nian)同(tong)期高 0.39 個(ge)百(bai)分點。簡陽市豆(dou)(dou)莢(jia)被害率 11.35% ，比(bi)上年(nian)同(tong)期高 2 個(ge)百(bai)分點。
7. 氣象條件。據省(sheng)農業(ye)氣候中心分析， 8 月盆地(di)西北(bei)部、東北(bei)部及川西高原(yuan)地(di)區降水量較(jiao)常年(nian)均值(zhi)(zhi)偏多(duo) 1 ～ 2 成，川西高原(yuan)氣溫較(jiao)常年(nian)均值(zhi)(zhi)偏低(di) 0.5-1.0 ℃，其余地(di)區氣溫較(jiao)常年(nian)均值(zhi)(zhi)偏高 0.5-1.0 ℃，盆地(di)高溫多(duo)雨(yu)氣象條件對(dui)(dui)病害發生較(jiao)為有利(li)(li)，對(dui)(dui)小菜蛾等害蟲(chong)無明顯不(bu)利(li)(li)。
（四川省農業廳）
