根據我市(shi)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai)越冬基數和當(dang)前小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)情況，結(jie)合小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)長勢、品種(zhong)抗性、氣象條(tiao)件、防治水(shui)平及歷年(nian)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)演變規律。預計(ji)2017年(nian)我市(shi)小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai)將(jiang)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，累(lei)計(ji)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積2800萬畝次，其中，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)1250萬畝次，病(bing)害(hai)(hai)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)1550萬畝次。條(tiao)銹病(bing)偏(pian)重流行(xing)，唐河、新(xin)野、淅川等地部(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)大流行(xing)；赤霉病(bing)中度以上(shang)流行(xing)風險高，紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)在(zai)高產麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，部(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，麥(mai)(mai)蜘蛛中度發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，吸漿蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，部(bu)(bu)分麥(mai)(mai)田偏(pian)重。
一、發生趨勢
（一）小麥病害
條銹病(bing)偏重流行(xing)，南部的唐河、新(xin)野、淅川等地部分麥田呈大流行(xing)態勢(shi)，流行(xing)盛(sheng)期(qi)3月下旬至5月上旬，發生面積(ji)450萬畝。
赤霉病中度以上流行風險高，部分麥田偏重流行，盛發(fa)期5月(yue)中下(xia)旬，發(fa)生面積300萬畝(mu)。
紋枯病(bing)中度(du)發生，稻茬麥(mai)及氮肥偏多的高(gao)產麥(mai)田(tian)偏重(zhong)發生，盛發期在3月上(shang)旬至(zhi)4月下旬，發生面積380萬畝(mu)。
小麥白粉病中(zhong)度偏(pian)輕發生，山區及部分種植密度高、郁閉田(tian)塊偏(pian)重(zhong)發生，預計發生面積50萬畝，盛發期4月中(zhong)旬至5月上旬。
小(xiao)麥葉枯病(bing)在部(bu)分(fen)品種中偏(pian)重發生；散黑穗(sui)病(bing)偏(pian)輕(qing)發生，局部(bu)將達中等程度；小(xiao)麥莖基腐(fu)病(bing)及根(gen)腐(fu)病(bing)在部(bu)分(fen)麥田危害(hai)程度將繼續加重。
（二）小麥蟲害
吸漿(jiang)蟲(chong)在全市大部(bu)麥田(tian)中度(du)(du)偏輕發生，西峽、社旗、鎮平(ping)、內鄉(xiang)、方城、臥龍等地部(bu)分麥田(tian)中度(du)(du)發生，預計成(cheng)蟲(chong)盛期4月中下(xia)旬，發生面(mian)積200萬畝。
蚜蟲在(zai)唐河、社旗、方城(cheng)、新(xin)野、鎮平、內鄉(xiang)、淅川、宛城(cheng)、臥龍等地麥區(qu)偏重，部分麥田大發生(sheng)，全市發生(sheng)面積450萬畝。
麥(mai)蜘蛛中度發生(sheng)，社旗(qi)、淅川、鎮(zhen)平、臥(wo)龍、宛(wan)城、桐柏、內鄉、方城部分麥(mai)田(tian)重發生(sheng)，盛發期在3月(yue)中旬(xun)至4月(yue)中旬(xun)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)280萬畝。
地下害蟲(chong)(chong)在部分麥田發生偏(pian)重，3月中(zhong)旬前(qian)后(hou)將(jiang)再有一次(ci)為害高(gao)峰；一代粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)偏(pian)輕發生，部分田塊可達中(zhong)等程度。
二、 預報依據
1、多種病害發生基數偏高
據(ju)各縣(xian)（區(qu)(qu)）冬前及(ji)近期(qi)(qi)(qi)調查(cha)，當前全(quan)市(shi)紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)田(tian)(tian)(tian)率(lv)(lv)68.4％，平均(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)12.1％，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)53.6個百(bai)分點，部(bu)(bu)分水澆田(tian)(tian)(tian)濕(shi)度(du)(du)大(da)、氮肥高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)發(fa)(fa)生嚴(yan)重，最高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)55％（官莊），特別密度(du)(du)大(da)、氮肥偏多、凍害(hai)明顯的(de)麥(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)(tian)發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)較重。白(bai)粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)山區(qu)(qu)縣(xian)零星見病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)，程度(du)(du)輕于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)。條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)早、菌(jun)源量(liang)(liang)(liang)大(da)，唐河(he)縣(xian)年(nian)(nian)前12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)14日在(zai)黑龍鎮街北周莊村(cun)(cun)(cun)喬莊2塊(kuai)田(tian)(tian)(tian)發(fa)(fa)現(xian)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)冬前發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)9個（其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1塊(kuai)田(tian)(tian)(tian)發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)4個，另(ling)(ling)1塊(kuai)5個），中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)面積(ji)0.2-1平方(fang)米(mi)，嚴(yan)重度(du)(du)10-80%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)134片(pian)(pian)、136片(pian)(pian)；12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)26日在(zai)同村(cun)(cun)(cun)另(ling)(ling)外一塊(kuai)麥(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)(tian)又發(fa)(fa)現(xian)一個發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)數(shu)28片(pian)(pian)，嚴(yan)重度(du)(du)10-80%；1月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)9日上屯鎮卜萁王村(cun)(cun)(cun)見2個發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)數(shu)41、78片(pian)(pian)，嚴(yan)重度(du)(du)5-80%，比(bi)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)早3個月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)以上。淅川縣(xian)12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)19日在(zai)大(da)石橋鄉(xiang)(xiang)清風嶺村(cun)(cun)(cun)又發(fa)(fa)現(xian)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)單片(pian)(pian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)3片(pian)(pian)，嚴(yan)重度(du)(du)5-40%；元月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)11日在(zai)另(ling)(ling)外一塊(kuai)麥(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)(tian)發(fa)(fa)現(xian)一個小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)和兩(liang)片(pian)(pian)單片(pian)(pian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)11片(pian)(pian)，嚴(yan)重度(du)(du)5%-40%之間(jian)。元月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)16日，新野(ye)縣(xian)五星鄉(xiang)(xiang)馬莊村(cun)(cun)(cun)麥(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)(tian)發(fa)(fa)現(xian)3個條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)面積(ji)分別達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到0.2-8平方(fang)米(mi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到30-300多片(pian)(pian)，嚴(yan)重度(du)(du)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到10%-80%。目前南部(bu)(bu)的(de)新野(ye)、唐河(he)等(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)部(bu)(bu)分區(qu)(qu)域病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)田(tian)(tian)(tian)率(lv)(lv)已超過(guo)30%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)情擴展(zhan)迅(xun)速，發(fa)(fa)生面積(ji)已達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)4萬畝(mu)(mu)，菌(jun)源量(liang)(liang)(liang)已達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)大(da)流行(xing)指標。另(ling)(ling)據(ju)全(quan)國農(nong)技中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)通報，與我市(shi)毗鄰(lin)的(de)湖北省已在(zai)十堰、襄陽、荊(jing)門、隨州、荊(jing)州等(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)查(cha)到小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)，發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)范圍和程度(du)(du)也顯著(zhu)多于(yu)(yu)(yu)或重于(yu)(yu)(yu)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)，導致我市(shi)春(chun)季病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)流行(xing)的(de)外地(di)(di)菌(jun)源也比(bi)較豐富(fu)。赤霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)寄(ji)主作物玉米(mi)等(deng)(deng)種植面積(ji)500余萬畝(mu)(mu)，秸稈(gan)還(huan)田(tian)(tian)(tian)面積(ji)超過(guo)300萬畝(mu)(mu)，菌(jun)源量(liang)(liang)(liang)廣泛存在(zai)。苗期(qi)(qi)(qi)蚜(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)在(zai)內(nei)鄉(xiang)(xiang)、社(she)旗(qi)、臥龍、宛城(cheng)、鎮平、唐河(he)等(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)普遍發(fa)(fa)生重于(yu)(yu)(yu)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)市(shi)平均(jun)(jun)百(bai)株蚜(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)9.6頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，嚴(yan)重田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)株率(lv)(lv)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)25%，百(bai)株蚜(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)815頭(tou)(tou)(tou)；麥(mai)(mai)蜘(zhi)蛛越冬蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)輕于(yu)(yu)(yu)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)，平均(jun)(jun)每單行(xing)尺蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)15.7頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，唐河(he)、社(she)旗(qi)、內(nei)鄉(xiang)(xiang)等(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)部(bu)(bu)分麥(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)(tian)單行(xing)市(shi)尺蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)100余頭(tou)(tou)(tou)；吸漿蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)去(qu)(qu)秋(qiu)鎮平、社(she)旗(qi)、西(xi)峽(xia)、南召(zhao)、宛城(cheng)、臥龍、唐河(he)、方(fang)城(cheng)、新野(ye)、內(nei)鄉(xiang)(xiang)、淅川縣(xian)（區(qu)(qu)）共(gong)淘土抽查(cha)448個小(xiao)(xiao)方(fang)（10㎝×10㎝×20㎝），共(gong)有吸漿蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)525頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，平均(jun)(jun)每小(xiao)(xiao)方(fang)有吸漿蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)1.2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)減(jian)少(shao)31.8%，嚴(yan)重的(de)西(xi)峽(xia)縣(xian)最高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)單方(fang)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)19頭(tou)(tou)(tou)（西(xi)峽(xia)縣(xian)回車(che)鎮石梯(ti)村(cun)(cun)(cun)）。地(di)(di)下害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)平均(jun)(jun)每平方(fang)米(mi)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)1.1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，折畝(mu)(mu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)736頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，平均(jun)(jun)畝(mu)(mu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)減(jian)少(shao)12.4%。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)蠐(qi)螬畝(mu)(mu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)542頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，占73.7%，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)11.29%；金針蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)畝(mu)(mu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)151頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，占20.5%，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)22.9%；螻(lou)蛄畝(mu)(mu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)43頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，占5.8%，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)30.6%；嚴(yan)重田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)每畝(mu)(mu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)10672頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。
2、作物(wu)長勢及種植制(zhi)度利于病(bing)蟲害發生
全市(shi)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)播面(mian)(mian)積(ji)900萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。農(nong)技部門調(diao)查，全市(shi)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田(tian)一、二、三類田(tian)60％、30％、7%，一、二類苗占(zhan)90%以上，苗情好于常(chang)年同期。主要品種(zhong)衡(heng)觀35、西農(nong)979、鄭麥(mai)(mai)(mai)9023、豫麥(mai)(mai)(mai)70、鄭麥(mai)(mai)(mai)366、許科316等，種(zhong)植超過面(mian)(mian)積(ji)500萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，大部品種(zhong)對條銹病(bing)抗(kang)性較(jiao)差(cha)，且常(chang)發(fa)(fa)區因病(bing)菌新致病(bing)類群(qun)頻(pin)率上升，品種(zhong)抗(kang)銹性喪失(shi)加快。主栽品種(zhong)對白(bai)粉(fen)病(bing)、紋(wen)枯病(bing)、蚜蟲等主要病(bing)蟲害的抗(kang)性普(pu)遍(bian)較(jiao)低(di)。近年來連續實行小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)與玉(yu)米連作(zuo)，造成田(tian)間(jian)赤(chi)霉(mei)病(bing)等病(bing)原菌不斷積(ji)累；高產(chan)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區種(zhong)植密度大、高肥水管理，致使小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)群(qun)體大、田(tian)間(jian)郁閉(bi)，有利于赤(chi)霉(mei)病(bing)、白(bai)粉(fen)病(bing)、紋(wen)枯病(bing)、蚜蟲等病(bing)蟲害的發(fa)(fa)生。
3、氣象(xiang)條件對病(bing)蟲害發生有利(li)
去年我(wo)市麥(mai)播基礎較好，麥(mai)播以來氣(qi)溫(wen)適(shi)宜，降(jiang)水偏(pian)多(duo)，加上(shang)暖冬（1月份(fen)平均氣(qi)溫(wen)3.7℃，降(jiang)水量20.1℃㎜），小麥(mai)長勢好于往年。氣(qi)象預報，2月份(fen)我(wo)市降(jiang)水偏(pian)多(duo)，氣(qi)溫(wen)正常(chang)(chang)，非常(chang)(chang)有利于條(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)發生流行(xing)。長期氣(qi)象條(tiao)件對小麥(mai)病(bing)蟲害無(wu)明(ming)顯不利影響(xiang)。
