一、小麥病蟲害
圖1 2017年小麥條銹病發生趨勢圖
小麥病害總體中等發生(3級),發生面積970萬畝次。其中,小麥條銹病中等發生(3級),發生面積360萬畝,若4-6月份氣候適宜,伊犁河谷、塔城盆地局部麥田偏重流行(4級)。白粉病中等發生(3級),發生面積210萬畝。赤霉病在北疆伊犁河谷、昌吉中等發生(3級),發生面積55萬畝。葉銹病偏輕發生(2級),發生面積80萬畝,主要發生區在昌吉、塔城和博州。黑穗病偏輕發生(2級),發生面積100萬畝。全蝕病輕發生(1級),發生面積35萬畝。根腐病偏輕發生(2級),發生面積35萬畝。雪腐雪霉病在北疆冬麥區中等發生(3級),發生面積40萬畝。其他病害輕發(fa)生(sheng),發(fa)生(sheng)面積55萬畝。
小麥蟲害總體中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)605萬(wan)畝次。小麥(mai)蚜蟲(chong)中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)325萬(wan)畝。麥(mai)蜘蛛(zhu)中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)20萬(wan)畝。地下(xia)害蟲(chong)偏輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(2級(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)40萬(wan)畝。麥(mai)莖蜂在(zai)塔額盆地、阿勒泰中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)50萬(wan)畝。皮薊馬、小麥(mai)負泥蟲(chong)、棉鈴蟲(chong)等(deng)其他害蟲(chong)偏輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(2級(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)155萬(wan)畝。土蝗偏輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(2級(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)15萬(wan)畝。
二、玉米病蟲害
玉米病害總體偏輕發生(2級),發生面積40萬畝次。其中瘤黑粉病偏輕發生(2級),發生面積20萬畝;絲黑穗病偏輕發生(2級),發生面積10萬畝;銹病及其他病害輕(qing)發生(1級(ji)),發生面積10萬(wan)畝。
圖2 2017年玉米螟發生趨勢圖
玉米蟲害總(zong)體(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)1580萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次。一代玉米(mi)螟(ming)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)290萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu),二代玉米(mi)螟(ming)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),伊犁(li)河谷(gu)西部、博州(zhou)、喀什、哈密局部大發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(4級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)310萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次。二代棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)100萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu),三代棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)150萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。草地(di)螟(ming)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(1級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)5萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。玉米(mi)蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)偏輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(2級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)200萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。玉米(mi)葉(xie)螨中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)255萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。雙斑螢(ying)葉(xie)甲中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)80萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu),博州(zhou)、昌(chang)吉(ji)是(shi)主要發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)。地(di)老(lao)虎等(deng)(deng)(deng)地(di)下(xia)害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)110萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。白星(xing)花金龜中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)20萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。三點斑葉(xie)蟬中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji)),發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)50萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu),其他害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(1級(ji)(ji)),10萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
三、其他病蟲害
稻瘟病中等發(fa)生(3級),發(fa)生面積20萬畝次。
豆類病害偏輕發生(sheng)(2級),發生(sheng)面積10萬畝。
馬鈴薯病害偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(2級(ji)),發(fa)生(sheng)面積10萬畝次,以馬鈴薯早疫(yi)病、晚(wan)疫(yi)病為主。伊犁(li)、昌吉(ji)、阿勒泰(tai)是主要發(fa)生(sheng)區。
水稻蟲害總體(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng),發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)60萬畝。稻水(shui)象甲(jia)在伊(yi)犁河(he)谷、烏(wu)魯木齊市中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(3級),發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)30萬畝。水(shui)稻鰓蚯(qiu)蚓中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(3級),烏(wu)魯木齊市局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(4級),發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)10萬畝。稻螟蛉、水(shui)稻蚜(ya)蟲中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(3級),發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)分別為15萬畝、5萬畝。
豆類蟲害中等發生(sheng)(3級),發生(sheng)面積10萬畝。
馬鈴薯蟲害中(zhong)等發生(3級),發生面積20萬畝,以馬(ma)鈴薯甲蟲為主。
四、預測依據
1.氣候因素(su)。2016年(nian)10月(yue)(yue)至(zhi)11月(yue)(yue)降雨量(liang)多,有(you)(you)(you)利(li)于病(bing)菌(jun)冬前侵染傳播,感染機率大(da);田間形(xing)成穩定(ding)積(ji)雪較(jiao)歷年(nian)偏早,積(ji)雪時間長,有(you)(you)(you)利(li)于雪腐雪霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)的發(fa)生,若春季氣溫(wen)回(hui)升早,融雪速度(du)快,則(ze)不(bu)利(li)于小(xiao)麥(mai)雪腐雪霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)的發(fa)生。若4-6月(yue)(yue)溫(wen)度(du)適宜,降水偏多,有(you)(you)(you)利(li)于小(xiao)麥(mai)銹病(bing)、白粉病(bing)、小(xiao)麥(mai)赤(chi)霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)、細菌(jun)性條斑病(bing)和全蝕病(bing)流行。
2.菌(jun)(jun)源(yuan)基數和害蟲(chong)越冬(dong)基數普遍偏高。冬(dong)麥秋苗(miao)調查在(zai)阿克蘇(su)市發(fa)現小麥條銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)菌(jun)(jun)源(yuan),阿克蘇(su)市病(bing)(bing)(bing)田率(lv)13.3%,病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)0.33%,平(ping)均(jun)(jun)嚴重(zhong)度(du)1%;溫宿縣(xian)自生麥苗(miao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)68.5%,嚴重(zhong)度(du)36.13%;巴州輪臺縣(xian)葉銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)26.32%,嚴重(zhong)度(du)74.9%。玉米螟(ming)冬(dong)前調查基數偏高,伊(yi)犁河谷平(ping)均(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)量為(wei)(wei)113頭(tou)(tou)/百(bai)桿,最高為(wei)(wei)382頭(tou)(tou)/百(bai)桿,為(wei)(wei)全疆歷史最高值;博州平(ping)均(jun)(jun)52.3頭(tou)(tou)/百(bai)桿;昌吉州平(ping)均(jun)(jun)53.04頭(tou)(tou)/百(bai)桿(2015年(nian)為(wei)(wei)29頭(tou)(tou)/百(bai)桿);哈密(mi)36頭(tou)(tou)/百(bai)桿;喀什地區平(ping)均(jun)(jun)18.6頭(tou)(tou)/百(bai)桿;塔(ta)城地區平(ping)均(jun)(jun)20頭(tou)(tou)/百(bai)桿。
3.種植(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)結構有(you)利于(yu)病(bing)蟲害(hai)的發生。小麥高密(mi)度種植(zhi)(zhi),玉米種植(zhi)(zhi)和果糧間作面(mian)積逐年增(zeng)加(jia),重茬、迎茬面(mian)積大(da),品種抗性差等均有(you)利于(yu)病(bing)蟲害(hai)的發生危(wei)害(hai)。
4.玉米螟在農區(qu)有一定的越冬場所,農民(min)防控意識薄(bo)弱,田間管理粗放(fang),若(ruo)遭受冰雹(bao)、大雨等自(zi)然災(zai)害(hai)(hai)出現傷口,中后期防控難度(du)大,有利于蟲(chong)害(hai)(hai)的發生。
五、防控對策
1.小麥
重點抓(zhua)好條銹病、白(bai)粉病、雪腐雪霉病、黑穗病、蚜蟲和草害。在返青期及時開展化學除(chu)草。大力(li)推廣“準(zhun)確(que)監測,帶藥偵察,發現一(yi)點,控(kong)制一(yi)片”的防(fang)治(zhi)經驗,早(zao)發現,早(zao)防(fang)治(zhi),提高(gao)防(fang)除(chu)效果(guo)。
小麥條銹病重點(dian)落(luo)實“關口前(qian)移、帶藥偵(zhen)查、打(da)點(dian)保面(mian)”,預防控制(zhi)大面(mian)積流行;小麥雪腐(fu)雪霉病、黑穗病重點(dian)落(luo)實藥劑拌(ban)種(zhong)預防措(cuo)施(shi);小麥抽(chou)穗至(zhi)灌(guan)漿期(qi)重點(dian)落(luo)實“一噴三(san)防”關鍵技術防治(zhi)條銹病、白粉病和蚜(ya)蟲;小麥草害重點(dian)落(luo)實春季化防。
2.玉米
重點抓好玉米螟和葉螨。玉米病蟲害防控要以綠色防控技術為支撐,大力推進專業化統防統治,實施秸稈還田、種子處理(li)、苗(miao)期(qi)害蟲防治(zhi)和心(xin)葉末期(qi)病蟲防治(zhi)技術。