2017年(nian)3月8-9日河北(bei)省(sheng)植(zhi)保植(zhi)檢站(zhan)(zhan)在滄(cang)州市召開了“2017年(nian)全省(sheng)農業有害(hai)生(sheng)物發生(sheng)趨(qu)勢會(hui)商(shang)(shang)及(ji)培訓會(hui)”。我站(zhan)(zhan)測報科工作人(ren)員也應邀參加(jia)了本次會(hui)議(yi)，并與北(bei)京(jing)(jing)市植(zhi)物保護站(zhan)(zhan)、河北(bei)省(sheng)11個(ge)設(she)區市植(zhi)保站(zhan)(zhan)及(ji)其48個(ge)測報區域站(zhan)(zhan)的技術人(ren)員共同會(hui)商(shang)(shang)分析了 2017年(nian)京(jing)(jing)津冀(ji)地區主要農業有害(hai)生(sheng)物發生(sheng)趨(qu)勢，形成了京(jing)(jing)津冀(ji)地區完整的會(hui)商(shang)(shang)結果。
根(gen)據病(bing)蟲冬前(qian)和(he)早(zao)春基數調查，結合農(nong)業種(zhong)(zhong)植結構、品種(zhong)(zhong)抗性、氣象預(yu)(yu)報(bao)等(deng)因子(zi)綜(zong)合分析，預(yu)(yu)報(bao)：2017年上半年京津冀地(di)區主要(yao)農(nong)業有害生(sheng)物總體將中等(deng)發生(sheng)，蝗蟲、麥蚜等(deng)個別(bie)病(bing)蟲害將在部分地(di)區的(de)個別(bie)地(di)塊(kuai)偏重到大發生(sheng)，具體預(yu)(yu)報(bao)結果(guo)如下：
一、小麥病蟲
預計2017年京津冀(ji)地區小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害(hai)總(zong)(zong)體(ti)(ti)將中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，麥(mai)(mai)蚜將在(zai)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地區偏(pian)重(zhong)到大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)吸漿(jiang)蟲(chong)將在(zai)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地區的個別(bie)地塊(kuai)(kuai)偏(pian)重(zhong)到大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。其中：麥(mai)(mai)蚜中等(deng)到大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，面(mian)積(ji)(ji)約1800多萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)吸漿(jiang)蟲(chong)總(zong)(zong)體(ti)(ti)中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)1400萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，在(zai)冀(ji)中南和天津寶坻區、薊州區可(ke)能(neng)出現(xian)高密度點(dian)片；麥(mai)(mai)蜘蛛、小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)紋枯病(bing)(bing)、白粉病(bing)(bing)總(zong)(zong)體(ti)(ti)中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)依次為(wei)：1000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)、1100萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)、1300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)條銹病(bing)(bing)現(xian)在(zai)在(zai)河南等(deng)地菌源量(liang)大(da)，如(ru)氣(qi)候(hou)適宜，在(zai)冀(ji)中南麥(mai)(mai)區有流行的可(ke)能(neng)；冀(ji)中南麥(mai)(mai)區小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)揚花期如(ru)果(guo)遇(yu)連陰雨天氣(qi)，小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)赤霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)在(zai)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地塊(kuai)(kuai)將偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)根腐(fu)病(bing)(bing)、葉銹病(bing)(bing)局部(bu)(bu)地塊(kuai)(kuai)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；地下害(hai)蟲(chong)總(zong)(zong)體(ti)(ti)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。預報依據：
1、病蟲基數：2016年(nian)(nian)小麥收(shou)獲前，河北省(sheng)各地對小麥吸漿蟲(chong)發生(sheng)區進(jin)行了剝穗(sui)(sui)調查(cha)(cha)，全省(sheng)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)被(bei)害(hai)穗(sui)(sui)率(lv)(lv)16.8%，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)被(bei)害(hai)粒率(lv)(lv)1.7%，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)單(dan)(dan)穗(sui)(sui)1.9頭(tou)，最(zui)(zui)多單(dan)(dan)穗(sui)(sui)171頭(tou)（欒城(cheng)區）。除(chu)被(bei)害(hai)粒率(lv)(lv)與上(shang)年(nian)(nian)持平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)，被(bei)害(hai)穗(sui)(sui)率(lv)(lv)和平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)單(dan)(dan)穗(sui)(sui)數(shu)均(jun)(jun)(jun)高(gao)于(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期。據正定縣調查(cha)(cha)，2016年(nian)(nian)吸漿蟲(chong)發生(sheng)程度重于(yu)(yu)近三年(nian)(nian)，被(bei)害(hai)穗(sui)(sui)率(lv)(lv)25.8%，被(bei)害(hai)粒率(lv)(lv)2.7%，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)單(dan)(dan)穗(sui)(sui)1.65頭(tou)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)單(dan)(dan)粒0.04頭(tou)，百穗(sui)(sui)蟲(chong)量165.2頭(tou)，比(bi)2013年(nian)(nian)、2014年(nian)(nian)、2015年(nian)(nian)分別增加(jia)156頭(tou)、144頭(tou)、75頭(tou)，比(bi)2012年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)85頭(tou)，比(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)2頭(tou)。冬前淘(tao)土調查(cha)(cha)，河北全省(sheng)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)1.8頭(tou)/樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方，高(gao)于(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)1.6頭(tou)/樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)達145頭(tou)/樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方（定州市）；北京市平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)量0.8頭(tou)/樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方，低(di)于(yu)(yu)常年(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)值的(de)(de)(de)22.3頭(tou)/樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方和上(shang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)值的(de)(de)(de)2頭(tou)/樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方，單(dan)(dan)樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方最(zui)(zui)高(gao)蟲(chong)量為10頭(tou)/樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方。天(tian)津(jin)市薊州區和寶(bao)坻區平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)每樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方蟲(chong)量5.8頭(tou)/樣(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)方，是上(shang)年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)3.6倍，但仍低(di)于(yu)(yu)歷史(shi)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)值（2005年(nian)(nian)）79.6%。
河北早春基數(shu)調查，小麥(mai)吸漿蟲(chong)全(quan)省(sheng)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)1.73頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/樣方(fang)，基本與上年(nian)持(chi)(chi)平(ping)(ping)（1.78頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/樣方(fang)），最高(gao)達(da)(da)108頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/樣方(fang)（定(ding)州市）。麥(mai)蜘(zhi)蛛平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)5.4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/尺單行(xing)，高(gao)于(yu)上年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)的(de)1.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/尺單行(xing)，最高(gao)32頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/尺單行(xing)（故城縣(xian)）。全(quan)省(sheng)小麥(mai)紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)田率(lv)16.1%，高(gao)于(yu)上年(nian)的(de)11.8%，最高(gao)達(da)(da)48％（正定(ding)縣(xian)），平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)3.5%，高(gao)于(yu)上年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)的(de)1.7%，最高(gao)90%（永年(nian)縣(xian)）。根腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)1.1%，與上年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)持(chi)(chi)平(ping)(ping)，發生重的(de)地(di)塊(kuai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)達(da)(da)10％（肥鄉縣(xian)）。灰飛虱全(quan)省(sheng)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)0.35頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/尺2，最高(gao)4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/尺2（望都縣(xian)），密度較(jiao)低，僅平(ping)(ping)鄉縣(xian)個別(bie)地(di)塊(kuai)見(jian)小麥(mai)叢矮病(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株。麥(mai)田地(di)下害蟲(chong)螻蛄(gu)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)0.21頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/㎡，蠐螬平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)0.91頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/㎡，金針蟲(chong)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)0.77頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/㎡，密度均(jun)(jun)高(gao)于(yu)上年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)的(de)0.12、0.3、0.26頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/㎡。南部麥(mai)區部分(fen)地(di)塊(kuai)發現麥(mai)蚜(ya)，蚜(ya)量(liang)一般(ban)1-2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/百株。
據全(quan)國(guo)農技中心通報，截至(zhi)3月(yue)上旬，小麥條銹病已在(zai)湖(hu)北(bei)、河南(nan)等省多個(ge)縣發(fa)生，是近年來發(fa)生時間最早(zao)、范圍最廣的一年，且向(xiang)北(bei)、向(xiang)東擴散(san)態勢明顯(xian)，京津冀地(di)區(qu)進(jin)入監控關鍵期。
2、生態條件：據(ju)農(nong)業(ye)部(bu)門(men)統計，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)秋(qiu)季京津冀(ji)地區冬小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)播種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)約3600萬畝，目前(qian)種(zhong)植的小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)品種(zhong)大(da)(da)部(bu)分抗病(bing)(bing)性不高(gao)，如遇(yu)適宜(yi)氣候條件，個別病(bing)(bing)害在個別品種(zhong)上(shang)可能發(fa)(fa)生較重。據(ju)河北省小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)專(zhuan)家顧問(wen)組(zu)和(he)(he)河北省小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)產業(ye)技術(shu)體(ti)系小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)創新團隊(dui)專(zhuan)家2月(yue)底3月(yue)初(chu)考(kao)察(cha)，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)河北省小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)苗情屬于(yu)正(zheng)常(chang)偏好(hao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)份，當前(qian)主體(ti)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田群體(ti)充足、個體(ti)健壯，長勢(shi)均衡，墑情充足，對病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害的發(fa)(fa)生無(wu)不利(li)影響。天津部(bu)分麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區實行的高(gao)密度、高(gao)肥(fei)水種(zhong)植管理制度，致使(shi)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)群體(ti)大(da)(da)、田間郁(yu)閉(bi)，利(li)于(yu)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)(fa)生蔓延。北京小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)返青(qing)期較常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)早(zao)2天，一類苗占比大(da)(da)，個體(ti)素質好(hao)于(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)，返青(qing)苗情為近(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)最好(hao)的年(nian)(nian)(nian)份。
3、氣象條件：去年冬季(ji)京(jing)津(jin)冀(ji)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)氣(qi)溫(wen)偏(pian)高，對(dui)小麥病蟲越冬比較有(you)利。據(ju)氣(qi)象部(bu)門預(yu)報(bao)，2017年春季(ji)（3-5月(yue)份）京(jing)津(jin)冀(ji)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)南部(bu)降水(shui)量(liang)(liang)偏(pian)多1-3成，中(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)和秦、唐地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)降水(shui)量(liang)(liang)接近(jin)常年，北(bei)京(jing)、天(tian)津(jin)降水(shui)量(liang)(liang)比常年略偏(pian)少，氣(qi)溫(wen)接近(jin)常年略偏(pian)高。其中(zhong)(zhong)，3月(yue)份降水(shui)量(liang)(liang)較常年偏(pian)少，京(jing)津(jin)冀(ji)南部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)接近(jin)常年，中(zhong)(zhong)北(bei)部(bu)偏(pian)少1-2成，氣(qi)溫(wen)較常年偏(pian)高，對(dui)麥蜘蛛發生(sheng)非常有(you)利，4-5月(yue)份南部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)降水(shui)偏(pian)多，將有(you)利于小麥吸漿蟲、根(gen)腐病、紋枯(ku)病、白(bai)粉病、銹病的發生(sheng)。
二、玉米病蟲
預(yu)計2017年上(shang)半年京津冀地(di)(di)區玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米病(bing)蟲(chong)害(hai)總體(ti)將(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米薊(ji)馬等個(ge)別病(bing)蟲(chong)害(hai)將(jiang)在(zai)部分地(di)(di)區的個(ge)別地(di)(di)塊偏(pian)重到大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)：薊(ji)馬在(zai)晚(wan)播春玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米及(ji)早播夏(xia)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米田將(jiang)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，局部地(di)(di)塊大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)600萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝左(zuo)(zuo)右；二代(dai)粘蟲(chong)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，部分地(di)(di)區會(hui)出(chu)現高密度集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為害(hai)田塊，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝左(zuo)(zuo)右；一(yi)代(dai)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米螟在(zai)北(bei)部春玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米區中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，局部偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，冀中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)地(di)(di)區偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)700萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝左(zuo)(zuo)右；二代(dai)棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)在(zai)夏(xia)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米區發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)普遍，呈加(jia)重趨勢，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)1100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝左(zuo)(zuo)右；雙(shuang)斑螢葉甲呈上(shang)升趨勢,發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)160萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝；玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米粗縮病(bing)在(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)部晚(wan)春播或早夏(xia)播玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米田個(ge)別地(di)(di)塊偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)200萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝左(zuo)(zuo)右；玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米絲黑穗病(bing)總體(ti)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)150萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝左(zuo)(zuo)右。地(di)(di)下害(hai)蟲(chong)、褐足(zu)角胸葉甲、線(xian)蟲(chong)矮化(hua)病(bing)、玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米苗蚜等在(zai)部分地(di)(di)區會(hui)造成一(yi)定(ding)為害(hai)。預(yu)報依(yi)據：
1、越冬基數：全(quan)國農技(ji)中(zhong)心通報，2016年(nian)(nian)三代(dai)(dai)粘蟲總體(ti)為害(hai)程度明顯輕于(yu)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)，回(hui)遷(qian)蟲源量顯著少(shao)于(yu)2013-2015年(nian)(nian)；我省(sheng)(sheng)灤(luan)縣(xian)(xian)高(gao)(gao)空(kong)燈監測三代(dai)(dai)成蟲累計誘蛾91頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，明顯低(di)(di)于(yu)2015年(nian)(nian)的7051頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。玉(yu)米螟冬前基(ji)數(shu)調(diao)查(cha)，河(he)(he)北省(sheng)(sheng)全(quan)省(sheng)(sheng)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)活蟲20.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，與上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)相當(dang)(dang)，冀北部(bu)基(ji)數(shu)較高(gao)(gao)，其中(zhong)樂亭縣(xian)(xian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)103.2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，萬全(quan)區68.5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)；北京市平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)活蟲5.5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)偏(pian)低(di)(di)2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；天津市平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)活蟲27.4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)2.5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。地區間(jian)差異較大，其中(zhong)南皮縣(xian)(xian)冬前調(diao)查(cha)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)30頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，明顯高(gao)(gao)于(yu)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)的9頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，望都縣(xian)(xian)冬前調(diao)查(cha)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)23頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，明顯高(gao)(gao)于(yu)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)的5.83頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，永年(nian)(nian)區春季(ji)調(diao)查(cha)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)25.8頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)增加了(le)17.9頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，安新縣(xian)(xian)春季(ji)調(diao)查(cha)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)25頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)增加了(le)16頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，撫寧區春季(ji)調(diao)查(cha)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)20頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)降(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)了(le)28頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，安次區春季(ji)調(diao)查(cha)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)11頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)(bai)稈(gan)(gan)(gan)，比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)降(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)了(le)25頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。春季(ji)基(ji)數(shu)調(diao)查(cha)，河(he)(he)北省(sheng)(sheng)全(quan)省(sheng)(sheng)玉(yu)米螟平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)存活率(lv)83.49%，與上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)相當(dang)(dang)。
2、生態條件：京津(jin)冀(ji)地區(qu)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)植面積(ji)較大，為玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)病(bing)(bing)蟲害的(de)(de)(de)(de)發生提供了適(shi)生環境。春季基數調查冀(ji)中南部(bu)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)秸稈存儲(chu)量明顯減少，秸稈存儲(chu)率(lv)平均4.23%，壓低(di)了玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟等(deng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)總體蟲源(yuan)量；冀(ji)北(bei)部(bu)春玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)區(qu)秸稈存儲(chu)率(lv)平均51.31%，為一(yi)代玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟保(bao)留了一(yi)定蟲源(yuan)。京津(jin)冀(ji)大部(bu)分地區(qu)多年(nian)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)連(lian)作，密植、免耕、秸稈還田、高肥水管理、農機械(xie)跨區(qu)作業等(deng)技術的(de)(de)(de)(de)推廣，均利于玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)病(bing)(bing)蟲害的(de)(de)(de)(de)累(lei)積(ji)、傳播擴散。部(bu)分品(pin)種(zhong)對玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)病(bing)(bing)蟲害抗(kang)性不強，利于病(bing)(bing)蟲害的(de)(de)(de)(de)發生。
3、氣象條件：冬季氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)偏(pian)高(gao)，利于(yu)病(bing)蟲越冬。氣(qi)(qi)象預(yu)報(bao)2017年(nian)(nian)春季（3-5月份），京(jing)津冀地(di)區(qu)(qu)南(nan)部降(jiang)水量偏(pian)多1-3成，中部和秦、唐地(di)區(qu)(qu)降(jiang)水量接近常(chang)年(nian)(nian)，其他地(di)區(qu)(qu)降(jiang)水量偏(pian)少1-2成;大部分地(di)區(qu)(qu)平均(jun)氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)接近常(chang)年(nian)(nian)略偏(pian)高(gao)，氣(qi)(qi)象條件對病(bing)蟲害發生無明(ming)顯(xian)不(bu)利影響。
三、棉花病蟲
預計(ji)2017年上半年京(jing)津冀地(di)(di)區(qu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)病(bing)蟲害總(zong)體將(jiang)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，苗(miao)蚜等(deng)個別(bie)病(bing)蟲害將(jiang)在部分地(di)(di)區(qu)的個別(bie)地(di)(di)塊(kuai)偏重(zhong)到大發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。其(qi)中(zhong)：苗(miao)蚜總(zong)體偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部地(di)(di)塊(kuai)大發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)200多(duo)萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；二(er)代(dai)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)盲蝽、棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)苗(miao)病(bing)、枯黃(huang)萎病(bing)、紅蜘蛛等(deng)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，預計(ji)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)分別(bie)為300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)左右(you)、300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)左右(you)、160萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)左右(you)、200萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)左右(you)；二(er)代(dai)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（棉(mian)(mian)(mian)田(tian)幼蟲量(liang)少，其(qi)他作物田(tian)有加重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨(qu)勢），發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)400多(duo)萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。預報依(yi)據：
1、越冬基數：棉(mian)鈴蟲越冬(dong)(dong)蛹(yong)量低，基數調查河(he)北省(sheng)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)0.058頭(tou)/㎡，與上年(nian)相(xiang)(xiang)當(dang)，低于(yu)歷年(nian)。玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)田(tian)越冬(dong)(dong)蛹(yong)量高于(yu)棉(mian)田(tian)，玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)田(tian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)0.137頭(tou)/㎡，蔬菜田(tian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)0.031頭(tou)/㎡，與上年(nian)相(xiang)(xiang)當(dang)。地(di)區間(jian)差異(yi)較大(da)，部分地(di)區蛹(yong)量較高，其中南大(da)港(gang)區棉(mian)田(tian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)0.25頭(tou)/㎡，三河(he)市(shi)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)田(tian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)0.4頭(tou)/㎡，遷安市(shi)花生田(tian)0.23頭(tou)/㎡，高邑縣蔬菜0.2頭(tou)/㎡。春季(ji)調查，河(he)北省(sheng)棉(mian)鈴蟲蛹(yong)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)越冬(dong)(dong)死亡率(lv)8.46％，與上年(nian)相(xiang)(xiang)當(dang)。
2、生態條件：抗(kang)蟲(chong)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)種植普遍(bian)，對二代棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)有(you)(you)較強(qiang)抑制作用(yong)。近兩年棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花種植面積呈(cheng)穩(wen)定態勢，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)田外蔬菜、花生(sheng)、玉米等(deng)作物食源條件好，基數高，利于(yu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)。棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花枯黃萎病(bing)等(deng)病(bing)害(hai)常年發(fa)生(sheng)，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)田菌源充足，多數抗(kang)蟲(chong)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)對棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花苗病(bing)、枯黃萎病(bing)抗(kang)性較差(cha)，利于(yu)病(bing)害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)。盲(mang)(mang)蝽(chun)象近年發(fa)生(sheng)普遍(bian)，寄主(zhu)種類(lei)增(zeng)多，有(you)(you)利其(qi)發(fa)生(sheng)；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花面積減(jian)少，易造成盲(mang)(mang)蝽(chun)象集(ji)中危害(hai)。
3、氣象條件：冬季氣(qi)溫(wen)較常年偏(pian)高，利(li)于病(bing)(bing)蟲越冬。氣(qi)象預(yu)報2017年春(chun)季（3-5月(yue)份），京津(jin)冀大(da)部(bu)分地區(qu)平均(jun)氣(qi)溫(wen)接(jie)近常年略偏(pian)高，利(li)于病(bing)(bing)蟲早(zao)春(chun)的繁殖。春(chun)季冀南(nan)部(bu)降水量偏(pian)多1-3成(cheng)，冀中和唐山(shan)地區(qu)降水量接(jie)近常年，冀北及(ji)天津(jin)棉區(qu)降水量偏(pian)少1-2成(cheng)，總體利(li)于棉花苗(miao)病(bing)(bing)、枯黃萎病(bing)(bing)等病(bing)(bing)害的發生。
四、蝗蟲
預計(ji)2017年京津(jin)冀地(di)區(qu)東(dong)亞飛蝗(huang)(huang)夏(xia)蝗(huang)(huang)總(zong)體偏輕到中等(deng)發(fa)生，發(fa)生260萬畝左右，達防治(zhi)指標面(mian)積(ji)近130萬畝，沿海蝗(huang)(huang)區(qu)的個別(bie)地(di)塊(kuai)偏重到大發(fa)生。分布區(qu)域(yu)主(zhu)要集中在：天津(jin)市(shi)(shi)濱海新區(qu)北大港水(shui)庫(ku)和(he)寧河七(qi)里(li)海蝗(huang)(huang)區(qu)。河北省保定(ding)市(shi)(shi)白(bai)洋淀、王快水(shui)庫(ku)、滄州市(shi)(shi)南大港濕地(di)周(zhou)邊、楊埕水(shui)庫(ku)、邯鄲市(shi)(shi)岳城、東(dong)武仕兩(liang)大水(shui)庫(ku)及(ji)漳河、衛河兩(liang)岸、石家莊市(shi)(shi)、承德市(shi)(shi)、唐(tang)山市(shi)(shi)、廊坊市(shi)(shi)等(deng)地(di)的河泛、湖庫(ku)、內(nei)澇、洼淀蝗(huang)(huang)區(qu)等(deng)。北部農牧交錯區(qu)土(tu)蝗(huang)(huang)：預計(ji)我(wo)省發(fa)生200萬畝左右，需要防治(zhi)50萬畝。北部土(tu)蝗(huang)(huang)優勢種為寬(kuan)翅(chi)曲背蝗(huang)(huang)、黃脛小車蝗(huang)(huang)、笨蝗(huang)(huang)、中華稻蝗(huang)(huang)、短(duan)額(e)負蝗(huang)(huang)、短(duan)星翅(chi)蝗(huang)(huang)等(deng)。預報依據：
1、蟲源基數：2016年(nian)東亞飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)秋(qiu)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)普查，河北省(sheng)普查面(mian)積(ji)(ji)332萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)達203萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，比上年(nian)增(zeng)加25萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，和前年(nian)相(xiang)當(dang)，其中(zhong)有殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)6-10頭(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)的面(mian)積(ji)(ji)124萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，有殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)11-30頭(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)的面(mian)積(ji)(ji)61萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，有殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)31-100頭(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)的面(mian)積(ji)(ji)15.3萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，有殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)大(da)于100頭(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)的面(mian)積(ji)(ji)3.5萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，平均(jun)密(mi)度(du)(du)12.5頭(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)，最高300頭(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)（王(wang)快(kuai)水(shui)庫，面(mian)積(ji)(ji)2畝(mu)(mu)）。天津市(shi)秋(qiu)殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)27.9萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，主要(yao)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)區殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)平均(jun)密(mi)度(du)(du)為9.37頭(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)，最高189頭(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)。2016年(nian)秋(qiu)殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)密(mi)度(du)(du)超過10頭(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)的面(mian)積(ji)(ji)較近四年(nian)（2012～2015）平均(jun)值降低了44.5%。
2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)春季東(dong)亞飛蝗各地挖(wa)卵(luan)調查(cha)，河北省平均(jun)(jun)卵(luan)塊(kuai)數0.037塊(kuai)/m2，低于上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)0.042塊(kuai)/m2，與(yu)近年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相當，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)1塊(kuai)/m2（安(an)新縣、樂亭縣、玉田縣、大城縣、霸州市(shi)）。全(quan)(quan)省卵(luan)粒(li)數平均(jun)(jun)52.3粒(li)/塊(kuai)，高(gao)(gao)于上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)45.6粒(li)/塊(kuai)，前年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)40.2粒(li)/塊(kuai)，與(yu)近年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相當，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)75粒(li)/塊(kuai)（大城縣），高(gao)(gao)于上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)84粒(li)/塊(kuai)（平山縣）；全(quan)(quan)省平均(jun)(jun)死亡率6.1%，低于上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)7.86%，與(yu)近年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相當，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)15.3%（南(nan)大港）。
河北省2016年秋季土蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)普查面(mian)積(ji)769萬畝(mu)(mu)，殘(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)積(ji)達138萬畝(mu)(mu)，其中有殘(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)小(xiao)于330頭(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)面(mian)積(ji)99.5萬畝(mu)(mu)，有殘(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)331-2000頭(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)面(mian)積(ji)23萬畝(mu)(mu)，有殘(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)2001-6000頭(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)面(mian)積(ji)13.6萬畝(mu)(mu)，有殘(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)6001-33000頭(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)面(mian)積(ji)2萬畝(mu)(mu)，平均密(mi)度1200頭(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)，最(zui)高(gao)10005頭(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)。2017年春(chun)季土蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)基數調查，農(nong)牧交錯(cuo)區平均卵塊(kuai)(kuai)數1.243塊(kuai)(kuai)/m2，比(bi)上年的(de)(de)(de)0.3444塊(kuai)(kuai)/m2偏高(gao)，高(gao)密(mi)度地(di)塊(kuai)(kuai)平均卵塊(kuai)(kuai)數13.5塊(kuai)(kuai)/m2，最(zui)高(gao)達72塊(kuai)(kuai)/m2（灤(luan)縣(xian)）。
2、氣象條件：河北省和(he)天津(jin)市冬季氣溫較常(chang)年偏(pian)高，利于(yu)蝗(huang)卵越(yue)冬。氣象(xiang)預報2017年春季，我省南部降水(shui)(shui)量(liang)(liang)偏(pian)多1-3成，中部和(he)秦(qin)、唐地區(qu)降水(shui)(shui)量(liang)(liang)接近常(chang)年，其他地區(qu)降水(shui)(shui)量(liang)(liang)偏(pian)少1-2成;全(quan)省大部分地區(qu)平均氣溫接近常(chang)年略偏(pian)高。氣象(xiang)條(tiao)件總體對東(dong)亞(ya)飛蝗(huang)蝗(huang)卵孵化有利，對土蝗(huang)發生無明(ming)顯不利影(ying)響。
3、生態環境：河北省(sheng)和天津(jin)市2016年(nian)7月下旬至8月期間，曾出現多次降雨過程，總體降水(shui)(shui)(shui)多于上年(nian)同(tong)期，天津(jin)市北大港、河北崗南(nan)、黃(huang)壁莊、岳成等水(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)部分夏蝗發(fa)生高密度地塊被水(shui)(shui)(shui)淹沒(mei)，蝗卵沒(mei)有(you)發(fa)育(yu)出土。據氣(qi)象部門(men)預報，2017年(nian)天津(jin)市降水(shui)(shui)(shui)總體偏少，如以上地塊脫水(shui)(shui)(shui)裸(luo)露，將有(you)集中出土的危險。
五、草地螟
預計河北省草地螟一代幼蟲輕發生。北京、天津(jin)兩市存在成蟲集中(zhong)遷入的可能(neng)。預報依據：
1、蟲源基數：河北省北部張(zhang)家口、承德地區(qu)冬(dong)(dong)前基數調查,未查到越(yue)冬(dong)(dong)活蟲(chong)(chong)繭。且從全國(guo)(guo)重大病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)趨(qu)勢預(yu)報(bao)獲悉，異地（國(guo)(guo)內）總越(yue)冬(dong)(dong)面(mian)積(ji)比上(shang)年同期減少71.4%；全國(guo)(guo)越(yue)冬(dong)(dong)總蟲(chong)(chong)量同比減少90%以(yi)(yi)上(shang)，為2001年以(yi)(yi)來最小的(de)年份。近幾(ji)年我國(guo)(guo)草(cao)地螟(ming)種群處(chu)于(yu)間(jian)歇期，呈持續輕發趨(qu)勢；國(guo)(guo)外俄羅斯(si)、蒙古(gu)等境外蟲(chong)(chong)源區(qu)同樣處(chu)于(yu)發生周期的(de)低谷。
2、預測模型：根據馬爾(er)可夫鏈模型預測2017年河北省草地螟一(yi)代幼蟲發生(sheng)程度(du)為1級，輕發生(sheng)。
3、氣象條件：據(ju)氣象部門預報，2017年(nian)春季河北省(sheng)張家口、承德(de)地區氣溫接近(jin)常年(nian)或(huo)略偏高，對寄主植物生(sheng)長(chang)、越冬代成蟲(chong)的宿留(liu)、繁殖和(he)一代幼蟲(chong)發生(sheng)無不利影響。
六、二點委夜蛾
預(yu)(yu)計(ji)2017年京津冀地(di)區(qu)二點委夜蛾(e)總體將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積800萬畝左右，局(ju)部偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。如(ru)果一代蛾(e)盛(sheng)期(qi)至(zhi)(zhi)二代低(di)(di)齡(ling)幼(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)盛(sheng)期(qi)（一般6月中(zhong)下(xia)旬(xun)至(zhi)(zhi)7月上旬(xun)）氣(qi)候條件適(shi)宜(yi)，玉(yu)米幼(you)(you)(you)(you)苗(miao)敏感(gan)期(qi)與(yu)幼(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)危(wei)害高峰期(qi)相遇(yu)的田塊，危(wei)害程度將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)加重(zhong)，其(qi)中(zhong)麥秸(jie)、麥糠殘留覆蓋物多(duo)的地(di)塊為重(zhong)發(fa)地(di)塊，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)范圍(wei)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)涉及京津及河(he)北廊(lang)坊以南夏玉(yu)米主產區(qu)。如(ru)果一代蛾(e)盛(sheng)期(qi)至(zhi)(zhi)二代低(di)(di)齡(ling)幼(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)盛(sheng)期(qi)遇(yu)持續高溫(wen)（日最(zui)高氣(qi)溫(wen)≧36℃）或干旱（日平均相對濕(shi)度≦40%）天氣(qi)，將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)會降低(di)(di)其(qi)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)危(wei)害程度；秸(jie)稈(gan)粉碎、滅茬、清(qing)壟等(deng)生(sheng)(sheng)態防控(kong)措施(shi)實施(shi)較好的地(di)塊將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；小(xiao)麥秸(jie)稈(gan)腐(fu)熟好，自生(sheng)(sheng)麥苗(miao)多(duo)的田塊，幼(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)食料(liao)充足，也可減輕其(qi)對玉(yu)米苗(miao)造成的危(wei)害。預(yu)(yu)報依據(ju)：
1、蟲源基數：冬(dong)春基(ji)數調(diao)(diao)查，河(he)北省全省越冬(dong)蟲繭(jian)密(mi)度平(ping)(ping)均(jun)0.013頭(tou)/㎡，一(yi)般地塊0.01-0.25頭(tou)/㎡，最高平(ping)(ping)均(jun)1.03頭(tou)/㎡（廣平(ping)(ping)縣玉米田），與上年(nian)基(ji)數相當，其中在玉米田、棉田發現的較(jiao)多(duo)。地塊間(jian)地區間(jian)差異較(jiao)大，廣平(ping)(ping)縣春季調(diao)(diao)查30平(ping)(ping)米，發現31頭(tou)蟲繭(jian)蛹(yong)，許多(duo)地區未查到(dao)蟲繭(jian)蛹(yong)。春季調(diao)(diao)查，河(he)北省平(ping)(ping)均(jun)死亡率16.46％，目前已經有部分幼蟲化蛹(yong)。
2、生態條件：農(nong)民防(fang)控防(fang)治意識逐(zhu)漸提高，農(nong)機農(nong)藝措(cuo)(cuo)施逐(zhu)漸改進，清(qing)理麥秸(jie)、播(bo)種行、秸(jie)稈(gan)細粉碎、機械滅茬等(deng)生(sheng)態防(fang)控措(cuo)(cuo)施推廣應(ying)用面積逐(zhu)年(nian)增大，破壞(huai)了(le)二(er)點(dian)委夜蛾的適生(sheng)環境(jing)，二(er)點(dian)委夜蛾總體(ti)發(fa)生(sheng)趨(qu)勢將比2011-2014重發(fa)年(nian)有(you)所降低。
3、氣象條件：二(er)點(dian)(dian)委夜蛾發生的(de)主(zhu)要(yao)氣象影響因素是6月中下旬和7月上(shang)旬的(de)溫度(du)和濕度(du)，如(ru)果此段時間(jian)內氣溫偏高、濕度(du)偏大將利于二(er)點(dian)(dian)委夜蛾的(de)發生。
七、馬鈴薯病蟲
預(yu)計馬鈴薯病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害在河北省(sheng)張家口、承德(de)地區總(zong)(zong)體中等(deng)(deng)(deng)發生，晚疫病(bing)(bing)、早疫病(bing)(bing)、炭疽病(bing)(bing)、黑脛(jing)病(bing)(bing)、二十八星瓢蟲(chong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)總(zong)(zong)體中等(deng)(deng)(deng)，局部地塊將偏重發生；黑痣病(bing)(bing)、病(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)、環(huan)腐病(bing)(bing)、豆芫菁、地下(xia)害蟲(chong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)偏輕發生；粉(fen)痂(jia)(jia)病(bing)(bing)、瘡痂(jia)(jia)病(bing)(bing)呈(cheng)上升趨勢。預(yu)報依(yi)據：
1、病蟲基數：上(shang)年部(bu)分地塊(kuai)馬(ma)鈴薯(shu)晚疫病、早疫病、炭疽病發生較重，田(tian)間(jian)病殘體、用(yong)種帶菌(jun)量較高(gao)，加之去冬氣溫較常年偏高(gao)，有利于病蟲越冬，田(tian)間(jian)病蟲菌(jun)源充足。
2、生態條件：馬鈴薯種植面積(ji)呈加大(da)趨勢，為病(bing)(bing)蟲害發生提供(gong)了適(shi)宜(yi)的(de)寄主條件(jian)。種植大(da)戶預防(fang)理(li)念新，防(fang)治及時，病(bing)(bing)蟲害發生較輕(qing)(qing)；散(san)戶預防(fang)滯(zhi)后，病(bing)(bing)蟲害發生普遍較重(zhong)。近年(nian)來抗病(bing)(bing)品種和脫毒種薯的(de)大(da)力(li)推廣，使(shi)病(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)田(tian)間發生較輕(qing)(qing)。
3、氣象條件：一般年份(fen)張家口(kou)承德地(di)區6-8月份(fen)為多(duo)雨季節，對(dui)病害的侵染和流行非常有利。
八、水稻病蟲
預(yu)計京津冀地區水稻(dao)病(bing)蟲害總體中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)中(zhong)稻(dao)瘟病(bing)、稻(dao)曲病(bing)、水稻(dao)紋(wen)枯病(bing)、稻(dao)蝗(huang)總體中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)，局部偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；灰飛虱、二化螟總體中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，部分(fen)地塊偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；苗期病(bing)害偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，但在部分(fen)管(guan)理粗放的老稻(dao)田及(ji)個別品種上發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)較重；稻(dao)水象(xiang)甲輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；水稻(dao)條紋(wen)葉枯病(bing)等(deng)(deng)零(ling)星(xing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。預(yu)報依據(ju)：
1、病蟲基數：河北省(sheng)早(zao)春(chun)基數(shu)調查，稻(dao)水象甲平(ping)均(jun)(jun)0.44頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/㎡，比上年同期偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)（0.242頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/㎡）。二化螟(ming)越冬(dong)蟲(chong)(chong)量低(di)，冬(dong)前(qian)調查平(ping)均(jun)(jun)0.08頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/穴，低(di)于(yu)上年的(de)0.24頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/穴，唐山(shan)地區(qu)部分地塊蟲(chong)(chong)量偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)，春(chun)季田間調查未見二化螟(ming)幼蟲(chong)(chong)。天津冬(dong)前(qian)剖(pou)稈調查，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)百(bai)株稻(dao)茬有二化螟(ming)活蟲(chong)(chong)0.35頭(tou)(tou)(tou)（約(yue)合(he)0.05頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/穴），春(chun)季剖(pou)稈調查，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)百(bai)株稻(dao)茬有活蟲(chong)(chong)0.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)（約(yue)合(he)0.04頭(tou)(tou)(tou)/穴），越冬(dong)幼蟲(chong)(chong)死亡率為14.3%，蟲(chong)(chong)源基數(shu)接近歷(li)年值，略高(gao)(gao)于(yu)上年。
2、生態條件：稻水象甲適生環境的改變對其發生有較大的抑制作用。稻田多年連作，田間菌源充足。目前種植的水稻品種大部分抗病性較差，加之近些年來稻田有機肥使用少，底肥不足，重氮肥輕鉀肥，品種抗性降低。
3、氣象條件：去年冬(dong)季京(jing)津(jin)冀地區(qu)(qu)氣溫(wen)偏(pian)高，利于病蟲越冬(dong)。據氣象(xiang)部門(men)預報(bao)，2017年春季（3-5月份），京(jing)津(jin)冀水(shui)稻(dao)主要(yao)種植區(qu)(qu)氣溫(wen)較(jiao)常年略偏(pian)高，降(jiang)水(shui)量接近(jin)常年，總體利于水(shui)稻(dao)病蟲發(fa)生；承(cheng)德(de)種植區(qu)(qu)氣溫(wen)較(jiao)常年略偏(pian)高，降(jiang)水(shui)量偏(pian)少1-2成，對水(shui)稻(dao)病蟲發(fa)生無明顯不(bu)利影響。
九、蔬菜病蟲
預計京津(jin)冀地區蔬(shu)菜病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)總(zong)體(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)棚(peng)室黃瓜霜霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，白粉(fen)(fen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、靶斑(ban)(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、灰霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、細(xi)菌(jun)性(xing)(xing)(xing)角(jiao)斑(ban)(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)總(zong)體(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；番(fan)茄(qie)灰霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、早疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、葉(xie)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)毒(du)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，細(xi)菌(jun)性(xing)(xing)(xing)髓部(bu)壞死病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害偏(pian)(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；茄(qie)子(zi)綿疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；蔬(shu)菜菌(jun)核病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、葉(xie)菜類霜霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；根(gen)結線(xian)蟲(chong)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、茶黃螨(man)局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；煙(yan)粉(fen)(fen)虱(shi)、美洲斑(ban)(ban)潛蠅(ying)、薊(ji)馬(ma)等(deng)蟲(chong)害中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。露地黃瓜霜霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、白粉(fen)(fen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；番(fan)茄(qie)早疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、晚疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、茄(qie)子(zi)黃萎(wei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、茄(qie)子(zi)褐紋病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、葉(xie)菜類葉(xie)斑(ban)(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；美洲斑(ban)(ban)潛蠅(ying)、煙(yan)粉(fen)(fen)虱(shi)、薊(ji)馬(ma)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；十字花科(ke)蔬(shu)菜害蟲(chong)小(xiao)菜蛾偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，菜青蟲(chong)、蚜蟲(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；茄(qie)果(guo)類蔬(shu)菜病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)毒(du)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；紅蜘(zhi)蛛中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)理性(xing)(xing)(xing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害、細(xi)菌(jun)性(xing)(xing)(xing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害有加重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨勢(shi)。預報依據(ju)：
1、病蟲基數：據河北(bei)省各區域(yu)測報(bao)站(zhan)2月(yue)底3月(yue)初調查，番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)灰(hui)霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)一般在0.6-15%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)35%（承德(de)縣）；黃(huang)(huang)瓜(gua)(gua)霜霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)0.5-23.5%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)60%（承德(de)縣）；黃(huang)(huang)瓜(gua)(gua)靶斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)0.3-15%；番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)灰(hui)葉(xie)(xie)斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)1-10%；番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)細(xi)菌(jun)性髓(sui)部壞死病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)0.16-8%；番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)、辣(la)椒菌(jun)核病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)1-3%；番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)1-3%；番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)葉(xie)(xie)霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)0.02-25%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)48.5%（正定）；番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)早疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)0.8-8.5%；晚疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)1.4-14.3%；番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)黃(huang)(huang)化(hua)曲葉(xie)(xie)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)田率(lv)(lv)2-5%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)25%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)0.2-8.5%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)55%（昌黎）；煙粉(fen)虱番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)三葉(xie)(xie)蟲量0.1-26頭。北(bei)京市(shi)番(fan)(fan)(fan)茄(qie)(qie)灰(hui)霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)(peng)平(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)為(wei)5.2%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)35%；晚疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)(peng)平(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)為(wei)17%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)100%；葉(xie)(xie)霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)(peng)平(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)為(wei)20.1%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)65%。黃(huang)(huang)瓜(gua)(gua)霜霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)(peng)平(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)為(wei)41.2%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)100%；白粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)(peng)平(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)為(wei)5.7%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)9%；灰(hui)霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)(peng)平(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)(lv)為(wei)30.6%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)69%。
2、生態條件：蔬(shu)菜的周年(nian)生(sheng)產(chan)為病蟲害(hai)越冬越夏提供了良(liang)好的生(sheng)態條件(jian)，積累了大量(liang)菌源。由于棚室(shi)中土壤(rang)鹽漬化(hua)，漚根、營(ying)養(yang)失衡等生(sheng)理性病害(hai)加(jia)重。
3、氣象條件：京(jing)津冀地區去年(nian)冬(dong)季氣溫偏高，對(dui)病蟲(chong)越(yue)冬(dong)比較有利。保護地濕度(du)大，尤其(qi)冬(dong)季霧(wu)霾嚴(yan)重，光(guang)照不足，加重了病害(hai)(hai)發生(sheng)。據氣象(xiang)部門預(yu)報，2017年(nian)春季氣溫接(jie)近常年(nian)略偏高，降(jiang)水量接(jie)近常年(nian)，氣象(xiang)條件(jian)總(zong)體利于蔬(shu)菜病蟲(chong)害(hai)(hai)發生(sheng)。
十、花生病蟲
預(yu)計京(jing)津冀地區花生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)病蟲(chong)害總體呈(cheng)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨(qu)勢。其中(zhong)花生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)葉斑(ban)病、花生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)根莖腐病偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；冀南部(bu)(bu)二代棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；地下害蟲(chong)蠐螬、金針(zhen)蟲(chong)等(deng)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)；冀中(zhong)南部(bu)(bu)薊馬中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)；花生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)蚜蟲(chong)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，個(ge)別地塊大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（拌種花生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)田輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)）；花生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)病毒病、紅蜘蛛偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；瘡(chuang)痂病、白絹病局部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。
十一、鼠害
預計農(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)害總(zong)體(ti)(ti)將(jiang)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生，其(qi)中北(bei)部(bu)壩(ba)(ba)上(shang)及接壩(ba)(ba)農(nong)牧交錯區(qu)、中南部(bu)局(ju)部(bu)地區(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生。總(zong)發(fa)(fa)生面積(ji)2100萬畝左右，重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)面積(ji)200多萬畝。農(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)害總(zong)體(ti)(ti)將(jiang)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生，部(bu)分湖(hu)區(qu)、庫區(qu)、沿海(hai)、山區(qu)（半山區(qu)）等貧困(kun)地區(qu)局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生。北(bei)部(bu)壩(ba)(ba)上(shang)和接壩(ba)(ba)農(nong)牧交錯區(qu)農(nong)田優(you)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)種為(wei)黑(hei)線(xian)倉鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)、達烏爾(er)黃鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)、鼢(fen)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)；農(nong)舍(she)(she)優(you)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)種為(wei)褐家(jia)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)、小(xiao)家(jia)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)；中南部(bu)平原農(nong)田優(you)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)種為(wei)黑(hei)線(xian)倉鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)、黑(hei)線(xian)姬鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)，其(qi)中，局(ju)部(bu)鼢(fen)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)發(fa)(fa)生呈上(shang)升趨勢(shi)(shi)(shi)；農(nong)舍(she)(she)優(you)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)種為(wei)褐家(jia)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)，小(xiao)家(jia)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)常見(jian)種。
十二 、甘薯病害
北京(jing)市甘薯病毒病中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)較普遍，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)約 0.9 萬畝；莖線蟲病在(zai)局(ju)部(bu)中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)約 0.9萬畝；根(gen)腐病在(zai)局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)約 0.35萬畝；黑斑病輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)約 0.15 萬畝。
