根據近期各監測點對(dui)第一代螟(ming)蟲發(fa)育(yu)進(jin)度剝查(cha)，結合水稻生育(yu)期、氣(qi)候預報(bao)等綜合分析，預報(bao)如下(xia)：
1、發生時期(qi)(qi)(qi)：預(yu)計我省第二代(dai)螟(ming)(ming)蟲發生期(qi)(qi)(qi)與(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)年相近，卵(luan)(luan)孵(fu)(fu)盛(sheng)期(qi)(qi)(qi)大(da)部分(fen)(fen)在(zai)6月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)旬至7月(yue)(yue)上旬初。據(ju)(ju)仙游(you)縣(xian)調查分(fen)(fen)析，卵(luan)(luan)孵(fu)(fu)盛(sheng)期(qi)(qi)(qi)在(zai)6月(yue)(yue)12-29日，卵(luan)(luan)孵(fu)(fu)高峰期(qi)(qi)(qi)為6月(yue)(yue)17-19日，與(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)年相當，比(bi)歷年早2-3天。據(ju)(ju)福安市在(zai)平原區(qu)溪(xi)潭鎮(zhen)洋頭村監測，螟(ming)(ming)蛾 4月(yue)(yue)13日始見、比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年提前2天，高峰期(qi)(qi)(qi)比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年提前3天，預(yu)計第二代(dai)蟻螟(ming)(ming)始盛(sheng)期(qi)(qi)(qi)與(yu)(yu)高峰期(qi)(qi)(qi)在(zai)6月(yue)(yue)9-15日。據(ju)(ju)洛江區(qu)分(fen)(fen)析，二代(dai)螟(ming)(ming)蟲的(de)卵(luan)(luan)孵(fu)(fu)盛(sheng)期(qi)(qi)(qi)在(zai)6月(yue)(yue)18日-7月(yue)(yue)5日，卵(luan)(luan)孵(fu)(fu)高峰期(qi)(qi)(qi)6月(yue)(yue)25-30日。
2、發(fa)生(sheng)程度：預(yu)計第(di)二(er)代二(er)化(hua)螟在閩(min)(min)東(dong)、閩(min)(min)北稻區及(ji)閩(min)(min)西北單(dan)雙混栽區偏重發(fa)生(sheng)，其余中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)；第(di)二(er)代三化(hua)螟在閩(min)(min)南局部稻區中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)，其它地區輕(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)，較去年略多。
主要依(yi)據(ju)：截(jie)止6月(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)不完全(quan)(quan)統計，當(dang)前(qian)(qian)我(wo)省一(yi)(yi)代(dai)二(er)化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)蟲源面積(ji)約45萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)多6%；一(yi)(yi)代(dai)三化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)蟲源面積(ji)1萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)明顯(xian)增加。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)省1-5月(yue)(yue)(yue)總體(ti)氣溫偏高(gao)(gao)，較有(you)利于螟(ming)(ming)蟲越冬繁殖(zhi)，當(dang)前(qian)(qian)一(yi)(yi)代(dai)二(er)化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)田間(jian)(jian)(jian)蟲源較多，全(quan)(quan)省平均二(er)化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)幼(you)蟲量650頭、比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)多1倍、比(bi)前(qian)(qian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)多20%，平均枯(ku)鞘(qiao)率(lv)(lv)1.1%、比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和前(qian)(qian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)多0.2個(ge)百分點(dian)(dian)(dian)。據(ju)仙游縣調(diao)查(cha)，一(yi)(yi)代(dai)二(er)化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)田間(jian)(jian)(jian)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)殘(can)留(liu)量為65頭、比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)多171%、比(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)少24%，平均枯(ku)鞘(qiao)率(lv)(lv)0.23%、比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)0.01個(ge)百分點(dian)(dian)(dian)、比(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)低0.02個(ge)百分點(dian)(dian)(dian)，相對死亡率(lv)(lv)1.67%、比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)1.31個(ge)百分點(dian)(dian)(dian)、比(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)低4.72個(ge)百分點(dian)(dian)(dian)；一(yi)(yi)代(dai)三化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)田間(jian)(jian)(jian)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)殘(can)留(liu)量為4頭、比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)少55%、比(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)少97%。洛江區(qu)(qu)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)初各測(ce)報點(dian)(dian)(dian)調(diao)查(cha)，早稻一(yi)(yi)代(dai)二(er)化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)平均枯(ku)心(xin)率(lv)(lv)為0.2%、最高(gao)(gao)達0.4%,平均蟲口(kou)每畝(mu)(mu)(mu)480頭、比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少40%，最高(gao)(gao)蟲口(kou)每畝(mu)(mu)(mu)1050頭。福安市燈(deng)下(xia)誘(you)蛾監測(ce)，平原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)溪(xi)潭鎮洋(yang)頭村測(ce)報點(dian)(dian)(dian)截(jie)止目前(qian)(qian)共誘(you)135頭、比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)多5%，高(gao)(gao)山區(qu)(qu)曉陽鎮南溪(xi)村測(ce)報點(dian)(dian)(dian)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)共誘(you)到(dao)99頭、比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)減(jian)少8%。永(yong)安市5月(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)旬(xun)調(diao)查(cha)，二(er)化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)枯(ku)鞘(qiao)率(lv)(lv)為0.2%-10%，防治不及(ji)時地塊枯(ku)鞘(qiao)率(lv)(lv)高(gao)(gao)達20%以上(shang)。長樂市調(diao)查(cha)，二(er)化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)燈(deng)下(xia)蛾量自5月(yue)(yue)(yue)30日(ri)(ri)開始增多， 6月(yue)(yue)(yue)6日(ri)(ri)一(yi)(yi)代(dai)二(er)化(hua)(hua)螟(ming)(ming)田間(jian)(jian)(jian)平均畝(mu)(mu)(mu)殘(can)留(liu)量329頭、高(gao)(gao)的(de)達1728頭，田間(jian)(jian)(jian)平均枯(ku)心(xin)率(lv)(lv)0.3%、高(gao)(gao)的(de)達0.7%。
3、防治策略：加強對螟蟲的監測，準確掌握螟蟲發生動態，及時發生病蟲情報，指導農民科學防控。根據蟲情、苗情因地制宜實施科學防治，早稻掌握破口初期施藥保穗，早插中稻田掌握卵孵高峰期至低齡幼蟲期，枯鞘率5%時及時用藥保苗，藥劑可選用：20%氯蟲苯甲酰胺懸浮劑每畝10毫升、25%殺蟲雙水劑每畝200毫升、20%阿維·三唑磷乳油每畝50毫升、24%甲氧蟲酰肼懸浮劑每畝19-28毫升等。
