預計全省水稻主要病(bing)(bing)蟲總體中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，局部偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積1660萬畝(mu)次(ci)。其(qi)中(zhong)稻飛虱(shi)、稻縱卷葉螟、稻瘟病(bing)(bing)、水稻紋枯病(bing)(bing)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，局部中(zhong)等(deng)以上偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)；水稻螟蟲中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)；稻曲(qu)病(bing)(bing)中(zhong)等(deng)偏輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，局部中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。望(wang)各地(di)密切監測當前病(bing)(bing)蟲發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)動態，及時準確發(fa)(fa)布(bu)病(bing)(bing)蟲發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)信息，指導做(zuo)好防控工作(zuo)。
一、趨勢預報
1、稻飛虱：預計全省(sheng)中等發生(sheng)，普(pu)洱市(shi)(shi)中等以上(shang)偏重發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)580萬畝次。主要發生(sheng)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域在普(pu)洱市(shi)(shi)、紅河州(zhou)(zhou)、臨滄市(shi)(shi)、保(bao)山(shan)市(shi)(shi)各縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)），西(xi)雙版納州(zhou)(zhou)的勐海(hai)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，昭通市(shi)(shi)的彝(yi)良縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、永(yong)(yong)善縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、大關(guan)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、魯甸(dian)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、水(shui)富縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、綏江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，麗江(jiang)市(shi)(shi)的永(yong)(yong)勝(sheng)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、華坪縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、古城區(qu)(qu)(qu)，曲靖市(shi)(shi)的師宗(zong)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、羅平(ping)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、富源縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，玉溪的峨(e)山(shan)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、新平(ping)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、元江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，楚雄(xiong)州(zhou)(zhou)的楚雄(xiong)市(shi)(shi)、雙柏縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、祿豐縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、武定(ding)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，昆(kun)明市(shi)(shi)的石林縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、東川區(qu)(qu)(qu)，怒(nu)江(jiang)州(zhou)(zhou)的瀘水(shui)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，大理州(zhou)(zhou)的南澗縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、彌渡縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、云(yun)龍縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、永(yong)(yong)平(ping)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、漾濞縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、祥云(yun)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，文(wen)山(shan)州(zhou)(zhou)的文(wen)山(shan)市(shi)(shi)、硯山(shan)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、丘(qiu)北縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、廣南縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、富寧縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、西(xi)疇縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、麻栗坡縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、馬關(guan)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)；德(de)宏(hong)州(zhou)(zhou)的芒(mang)市(shi)(shi)、瑞麗市(shi)(shi)、盈江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、隴川縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等77個縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）。
2、水稻螟蟲：預(yu)計(ji)全省(sheng)中等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，三化(hua)螟重于二化(hua)螟，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)350萬畝(mu)次，其中二化(hua)螟發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)100萬畝(mu)次，三化(hua)螟250萬畝(mu)次。主要(yao)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)區域在昭通市(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)永善縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、大關縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鹽津(jin)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、巧(qiao)家縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、彝良縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、魯甸縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，麗江市(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)永勝縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、華坪縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，紅(hong)河州的(de)(de)(de)彌勒市(shi)(shi)(shi)、建(jian)水縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、個(ge)舊(jiu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)、蒙自市(shi)(shi)(shi)、開遠市(shi)(shi)(shi)、石屏縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，楚雄州的(de)(de)(de)楚雄市(shi)(shi)(shi)、大姚縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、姚安縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，大理州的(de)(de)(de)南澗縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、彌渡縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、巍山縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，曲靖市(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)沾益縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，文(wen)山州的(de)(de)(de)文(wen)山市(shi)(shi)(shi)、硯山縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、丘北縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、廣(guang)南縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、富(fu)寧縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、西疇(chou)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、麻栗坡縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、馬關縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等29個(ge)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)）。
3、稻(dao)(dao)瘟病：預計全省中等發(fa)生，在(zai)高海拔地區(qu)、優(you)質(zhi)稻(dao)(dao)種植區(qu)和雜交稻(dao)(dao)感病品種種植區(qu)中等以上偏重(zhong)發(fa)生，發(fa)生面(mian)積(ji)245萬(wan)畝次(ci)。主要發(fa)生區(qu)域在(zai)昆(kun)明市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)石林縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、尋甸縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，昭通市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)彝良縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、魯甸縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鹽(yan)津縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、綏江縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鎮雄縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、威信縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、昭陽(yang)區(qu)，保山市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)騰沖市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、龍陵縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、昌寧(ning)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、隆(long)陽(yang)區(qu)、施甸縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，麗(li)江市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)永(yong)勝縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，紅河州(zhou)的(de)(de)(de)彌勒(le)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、開遠(yuan)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、元陽(yang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、石屏縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、瀘西(xi)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，楚(chu)雄州(zhou)的(de)(de)(de)楚(chu)雄市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、祿豐縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、武定縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、大姚縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、姚安縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、牟定縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，怒江州(zhou)的(de)(de)(de)瀘水縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、福貢縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、蘭坪縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、貢山縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，文(wen)山州(zhou)的(de)(de)(de)文(wen)山市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、硯山縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、丘北(bei)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、廣南縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、富寧(ning)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、西(xi)疇縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、麻(ma)栗坡縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、馬關縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，大理(li)州(zhou)的(de)(de)(de)巍山縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、漾濞縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、大理(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、劍(jian)川縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鶴慶縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、祥云縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、永(yong)平(ping)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、云龍縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、彌渡縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，德(de)宏州(zhou)的(de)(de)(de)芒(mang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、瑞(rui)麗(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、盈江縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、隴(long)川縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等51個(ge)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、區(qu)）。
4、水稻紋枯病(bing)：預計(ji)全省中(zhong)等(deng)發生，文(wen)山州(zhou)(zhou)、普洱市(shi)、曲靖(jing)市(shi)中(zhong)等(deng)偏重發生，發生面積160萬畝次。主要發生區域在昭(zhao)通(tong)市(shi)的(de)大關縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、水富(fu)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、彝(yi)良縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、永善縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鹽津縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、巧家縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、綏江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，保山市(shi)的(de)隆陽區、施甸縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，麗江(jiang)市(shi)的(de)永勝縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、華(hua)坪縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，玉(yu)溪市(shi)的(de)紅塔(ta)區、峨山縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、易門縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、新平(ping)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、元江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，楚(chu)雄(xiong)州(zhou)(zhou)的(de)楚(chu)雄(xiong)市(shi)、武(wu)定縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、祿豐(feng)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，大理州(zhou)(zhou)的(de)南澗縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、祥云縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，文(wen)山州(zhou)(zhou)的(de)文(wen)山市(shi)、硯山縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、丘(qiu)北(bei)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、廣南縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、富(fu)寧縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、西疇(chou)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、麻(ma)栗坡縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、馬關縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，德宏州(zhou)(zhou)的(de)芒市(shi)、隴川縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)31個(ge)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)、區）。
5、稻曲(qu)病：預計全(quan)省(sheng)中(zhong)等偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)，局(ju)部中(zhong)等發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積100萬(wan)畝。主要(yao)發(fa)生(sheng)區(qu)域在麗江市(shi)的永勝(sheng)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、華(hua)坪縣(xian)(xian)(xian)，紅河州的建水縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、石屏(ping)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、元陽縣(xian)(xian)(xian)，文山州的文山市(shi)、硯山縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、丘北縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、廣南縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、富寧(ning)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、西(xi)疇縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、麻(ma)栗坡縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、馬關縣(xian)(xian)(xian)等13個縣(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)、區(qu)）。
6、稻縱卷葉螟(ming)：預計(ji)全省中等(deng)(deng)發生(sheng)，局部中等(deng)(deng)以(yi)上偏(pian)重(zhong)發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)面積100萬畝次。主(zhu)要(yao)發生(sheng)區(qu)域在昭(zhao)通市(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)彝良縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、永善縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鹽(yan)津縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鎮雄縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、綏江縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、水富縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，保山市(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)隆陽區(qu)、施甸縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、昌寧縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、龍陵縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，玉溪市(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)華寧縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、新平縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、元江縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，臨滄市(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)鳳慶縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、滄源(yuan)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、耿馬(ma)(ma)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鎮康縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，文(wen)山州的(de)(de)(de)文(wen)山市(shi)(shi)、硯山縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、丘(qiu)北(bei)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、廣南縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、富寧縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、西疇縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、麻栗坡縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、馬(ma)(ma)關縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，德宏州的(de)(de)(de)芒市(shi)(shi)、瑞(rui)麗市(shi)(shi)、隴川縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)28個縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)(shi)、區(qu)）。
二、預測依據
（一）當前病蟲基數總體(ti)較高
1、局部(bu)早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)地(di)區稻(dao)(dao)飛虱田間(jian)蟲(chong)量高(gao)。3月份以(yi)來我(wo)省南部(bu)一線水稻(dao)(dao)種植(zhi)區已陸續監測到以(yi)白背飛虱為主(zhu)的遷入峰，與(yu)去年(nian)同期(qi)相比，始見期(qi)偏晚蟲(chong)量偏低，但局部(bu)早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)田地(di)區大發生，百株蟲(chong)量高(gao)達20520頭/百叢(cong)，中稻(dao)(dao)秧田期(qi)平均(jun)蟲(chong)量接近(jin)去年(nian)同期(qi)。
2、水(shui)稻(dao)螟(ming)蟲殘(can)蟲量(liang)高(gao)，水(shui)稻(dao)病害菌(jun)(jun)源基(ji)(ji)數(shu)(shu)大。全省13州市越冬(dong)調查都(dou)有水(shui)稻(dao)螟(ming)蟲發(fa)生(sheng)，如麗江(jiang)市永勝縣調二化(hua)螟(ming)平均殘(can)存數(shu)(shu)為(wei)1400頭/畝(mu)，與上年(nian)(nian)相比(bi)(bi)增加25%；三化(hua)螟(ming)平均殘(can)存數(shu)(shu)為(wei)900頭/畝(mu)，與上年(nian)(nian)相比(bi)(bi)增加32%；文山州三化(hua)螟(ming)枯(ku)心率(lv)平均為(wei)1.2％,比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)同期高(gao)0.3個百分點；高(gao)的達2％，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)同期高(gao)0.2個百分點。截止2018年(nian)(nian)5月23日(ri)，全省累計發(fa)生(sheng)葉瘟(wen)2萬畝(mu)，防治(zhi)1.79萬畝(mu)次。如騰沖市病葉率(lv)0.2—17%，平均為(wei)2%，具備中(zhong)等發(fa)生(sheng)流行的菌(jun)(jun)源基(ji)(ji)數(shu)(shu)。
（二）大多數品種抗病(bing)性較差(cha)
目(mu)前我(wo)省主(zhu)栽的(de)合系22-2、楚粳28、楚粳31等品種對稻(dao)瘟(wen)病的(de)抗性(xing)下(xia)降，另外病蟲(chong)對常用(yong)藥劑的(de)抗性(xing)有不(bu)同程度上升，加(jia)之全省水(shui)稻(dao)的(de)生育期前后不(bu)一(yi)致、生育期不(bu)整齊，橋梁田(tian)多，有利(li)于水(shui)稻(dao)病害(hai)的(de)發生和(he)蟲(chong)害(hai)的(de)遷(qian)移與輾轉危(wei)害(hai)。
（三(san)）氣候條件(jian)對病害(hai)的發生有利
據(ju)氣(qi)象(xiang)部門預測， 6～8月降水(shui)(shui)量南部地(di)區(qu)較常年偏(pian)多(duo)10～20%， 9～10月降水(shui)(shui)量除滇東南偏(pian)多(duo)10～20%；6～8月氣(qi)溫(wen)(wen)西部地(di)區(qu)偏(pian)高(gao)0.5～1.0℃，7月下(xia)旬至8月氣(qi)溫(wen)(wen)為正常至偏(pian)高(gao)，9～10月氣(qi)溫(wen)(wen)西北部地(di)區(qu)偏(pian)高(gao)0.5～1.0℃。此時，正值我(wo)省大部分(fen)水(shui)(shui)稻病蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)生擴散敏感(gan)期，高(gao)溫(wen)(wen)多(duo)雨(yu)，易形成高(gao)溫(wen)(wen)高(gao)濕的田間小氣(qi)候，非(fei)常利于水(shui)(shui)稻病蟲的發(fa)(fa)(fa)生流(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)。尤其是局(ju)部單點暴(bao)雨(yu)突(tu)出，致使(shi)病害暴(bao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)流(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)風險大。
