據(ju)全(quan)國(guo)農(nong)技(ji)中心組織全(quan)國(guo)植(zhi)保(bao)體系和有關科研、教學單位(wei)專家會商分析，預計2019年全(quan)國(guo)農(nong)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)害(hai)總體呈(cheng)中等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)局部(bu)偏重（3－4級）趨勢，東北(bei)、華南及西(xi)北(bei)部(bu)分地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)呈(cheng)偏重至(zhi)大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)態勢（4－5級），中部(bu)大(da)部(bu)分地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)呈(cheng)偏輕至(zhi)中等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（2－3級）。預計全(quan)國(guo)農(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)害(hai)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積4.23億(yi)畝次，比2018年增加1600萬畝次，其中重發(fa)(fa)面積（鼠(shu)(shu)密(mi)度超過8%）5700萬畝次。農(nong)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)害(hai)總體進入種(zhong)群(qun)密(mi)度恢復(fu)期，種(zhong)群(qun)密(mi)度較高(gao)(gao)的地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主要集中在糧改經(jing)、糧改豆等種(zhong)植(zhi)業(ye)結構(gou)調(diao)整地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，稻(dao)魚（蝦(xia)）等稻(dao)田綜合種(zhong)養區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，南繁(fan)育種(zhong)基地(di)，沿江（河）流域(yu)、湖(hu)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、庫區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、山區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)（半山區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)），以及農(nong)林、農(nong)牧交(jiao)錯地(di)帶。總體呈(cheng)現種(zhong)植(zhi)業(ye)調(diao)整地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)農(nong)田優勢鼠(shu)(shu)種(zhong)演替、發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)范圍擴大(da)、高(gao)(gao)密(mi)度鼠(shu)(shu)害(hai)點(dian)片發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)、局部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)危害(hai)損失加重的趨勢。
一、發生(sheng)趨勢
（一）農田鼠害
1．東(dong)北地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)部(bu)(bu)偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。遼寧(ning)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（3級）；吉林(lin)大(da)部(bu)(bu)偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（4級），東(dong)部(bu)(bu)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)以及長春、吉林(lin)、白城、松原的部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)山區(qu)(qu)(qu)、半山區(qu)(qu)(qu)，農林(lin)交錯(cuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、荒地(di)、山溝、河溝等地(di)偏重至大(da)發(fa)(fa)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（4－5級）；黑龍(long)江哈(ha)爾(er)濱、佳木斯、黑河等部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)以及齊齊哈(ha)爾(er)西部(bu)(bu)農牧(mu)交錯(cuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)，沿(yan)江流域，部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)蔬(shu)菜和經濟作物(wu)種植區(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（5級），其他(ta)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（4級）。預計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積為：遼寧(ning)1402萬(wan)畝，吉林(lin)4207萬(wan)畝，黑龍(long)江5000萬(wan)畝。
2．華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區東部(bu)和北(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發生(sheng)，其他地(di)(di)區偏(pian)(pian)(pian)輕(qing)至(zhi)(zhi)中(zhong)等(deng)發生(sheng)。北(bei)(bei)(bei)京、天津輕(qing)發生(sheng)（1級(ji)(ji)），河北(bei)(bei)(bei)南部(bu)、山(shan)西南部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)輕(qing)發生(sheng)（2級(ji)(ji)），河北(bei)(bei)(bei)北(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)張(zhang)家口、承(cheng)德地(di)(di)區中(zhong)等(deng)至(zhi)(zhi)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發生(sheng)（3－4級(ji)(ji)），河北(bei)(bei)(bei)東部(bu)秦皇島、唐山(shan)等(deng)地(di)(di)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發生(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)），山(shan)西中(zhong)條山(shan)沿(yan)線(xian)(xian)、呂梁山(shan)脈沿(yan)線(xian)(xian)、恒(heng)山(shan)山(shan)脈沿(yan)線(xian)(xian)，臨汾、長治(zhi)等(deng)丘(qiu)陵山(shan)區中(zhong)華(hua)鼢(fen)鼠、棕色田鼠偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)至(zhi)(zhi)大(da)發生(sheng)(4－5級(ji)(ji))；內(nei)蒙古(gu)大(da)部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)輕(qing)至(zhi)(zhi)中(zhong)等(deng)發生(sheng)（2－3級(ji)(ji)），其中(zhong)呼倫貝爾(er)市(shi)、興安盟、錫林郭勒盟、烏蘭(lan)察布(bu)市(shi)、鄂爾(er)多(duo)斯(si)、巴彥淖爾(er)等(deng)盟市(shi)的部(bu)分旗（縣）偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發生(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)）。預(yu)計發生(sheng)面積(ji)為：北(bei)(bei)(bei)京150萬(wan)畝(mu)，天津180萬(wan)畝(mu)，河北(bei)(bei)(bei)1500萬(wan)畝(mu)，山(shan)西1800萬(wan)畝(mu)，內(nei)蒙古(gu)1360萬(wan)畝(mu)。
3．西(xi)北(bei)地區(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)中等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)至大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（2級(ji)(ji)(ji)），陜(shan)(shan)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)及陜(shan)(shan)南(nan)淺山(shan)區(qu)(qu)中等(deng)(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（3－4級(ji)(ji)(ji)）；甘(gan)肅(su)、寧(ning)(ning)夏(xia)(xia)大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（2級(ji)(ji)(ji)），甘(gan)肅(su)大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)中華鼢鼠(shu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)），甘(gan)肅(su)平涼、慶陽、定西(xi)、天水(shui)等(deng)(deng)(deng)部(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)中等(deng)(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（3－4級(ji)(ji)(ji)）；寧(ning)(ning)夏(xia)(xia)寧(ning)(ning)南(nan)山(shan)區(qu)(qu)以及中部(bu)(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)的同心、海原、鹽池(chi)等(deng)(deng)(deng)農(nong)牧交錯區(qu)(qu)中等(deng)(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（3－4級(ji)(ji)(ji)）；青(qing)海大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)高原鼢鼠(shu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)到大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（4－5級(ji)(ji)(ji)）；新疆(jiang)（含兵(bing)(bing)團(tuan)）大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)），南(nan)疆(jiang)四(si)地州(zhou)、博州(zhou)博樂市、溫泉(quan)縣，巴州(zhou)庫爾(er)(er)勒市、和碩(shuo)縣、博湖(hu)縣等(deng)(deng)(deng)地偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)至大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（4－5級(ji)(ji)(ji)），新疆(jiang)兵(bing)(bing)團(tuan)十師(shi)阿爾(er)(er)泰墾區(qu)(qu)、五師(shi)84團(tuan)、四(si)師(shi)昭蘇、新源、伊寧(ning)(ning)、九師(shi)塔城等(deng)(deng)(deng)退耕還林地、玉(yu)米(mi)播種(zhong)(zhong)區(qu)(qu)域及糧(liang)食種(zhong)(zhong)植區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)至大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（4－5級(ji)(ji)(ji)）。預計發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積為(wei)：陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)1100萬畝(mu)(mu)，甘(gan)肅(su)1100萬畝(mu)(mu)，寧(ning)(ning)夏(xia)(xia)110萬畝(mu)(mu)，青(qing)海450萬畝(mu)(mu)，新疆(jiang)（含兵(bing)(bing)團(tuan)）1150萬畝(mu)(mu)。
4．華東地(di)區(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。上海、山東、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)蘇、安(an)徽(hui)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（1－2級），安(an)徽(hui)沿(yan)淮西(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)和皖東南地(di)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級）；浙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級）；江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)西(xi)(xi)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)輕(qing)至(zhi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（2－3級），贛南、贛西(xi)(xi)、贛東北山區(qu)(qu)、農林交錯(cuo)區(qu)(qu)以及環鄱陽湖(hu)區(qu)(qu)域中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級）；福(fu)建大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級），仙游、云霄、順昌、霞浦等(deng)(deng)地(di)局部(bu)(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)至(zhi)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3－4級）。預計發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積為：上海100萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，山東1900萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)蘇2000萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，安(an)徽(hui)1100萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，浙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)1000萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)西(xi)(xi)1800萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，福(fu)建940萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)。
5．華(hua)中(zhong)(zhong)地區(qu)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。河(he)南(nan)、湖北大部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（2級(ji)(ji)），河(he)南(nan)豫東沿黃沙地小(xiao)麥(mai)花生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)輪作區(qu)、豫西果園(yuan)棕色田鼠(shu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)），河(he)南(nan)東部(bu)(bu)大倉鼠(shu)種群密度快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)長，呈加重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨(qu)勢(shi)，有向黃淮、華(hua)北擴展的趨(qu)勢(shi)；湖北稻(dao)魚(yu)（蝦）綜合種養區(qu)大部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3－4級(ji)(ji)）；湖南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)）。預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積為：河(he)南(nan)1500萬畝，湖北800萬畝，湖南(nan)2500萬畝。
6．華南(nan)(nan)(nan)地區(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)至(zhi)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)至(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)。廣(guang)東(dong)、廣(guang)西(xi)、海(hai)(hai)南(nan)(nan)(nan)大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)至(zhi)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)（3－4級），粵東(dong)、粵北和珠江三(san)角洲地區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)至(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)（4－5級）；廣(guang)西(xi)全州、興安、靈山、鹿寨(zhai)、八步區(qu)(qu)、防城(cheng)區(qu)(qu)、北流(liu)、宜州、桂平(ping)、平(ping)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、上林等(deng)地部(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)至(zhi)偏(pian)重(zhong)至(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)（4－5級）；海(hai)(hai)南(nan)(nan)(nan)臨高、海(hai)(hai)口、三(san)亞等(deng)地部(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)(qu)以及(ji)南(nan)(nan)(nan)繁育(yu)種基地重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)（5級）。預計發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積為：廣(guang)東(dong)2100萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，廣(guang)西(xi)2000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，海(hai)(hai)南(nan)(nan)(nan)155萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
7．西(xi)南(nan)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)(da)部中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。重(zhong)慶大(da)(da)(da)部中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)），渝(yu)東北(bei)、渝(yu)西(xi)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)以及江沿區(qu)(qu)(qu)域偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)）；四川大(da)(da)(da)部中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)），川西(xi)高原農(nong)牧交錯區(qu)(qu)(qu)、川南(nan)丘陵區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)）；貴(gui)州大(da)(da)(da)部中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)），黔(qian)(qian)北(bei)、黔(qian)(qian)中(zhong)(zhong)、黔(qian)(qian)東大(da)(da)(da)部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)）；云(yun)南(nan)大(da)(da)(da)部中(zhong)(zhong)等偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（2級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)），偏(pian)遠山區(qu)(qu)(qu)和(he)半(ban)山區(qu)(qu)(qu)蔬菜、果樹、中(zhong)(zhong)藥材種植區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)）；西(xi)藏(zang)大(da)(da)(da)部中(zhong)(zhong)等至(zhi)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3－4級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)），拉薩、山南(nan)、日喀則、昌都、林(lin)芝等農(nong)牧交錯區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)至(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4－5級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)）。預計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)為：重(zhong)慶900萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)，四川2300萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)，貴(gui)州750萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)，云(yun)南(nan)940萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)，西(xi)藏(zang)85萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)。
（二）農戶住宅區鼠害
預計全國農戶住(zhu)宅(zhai)區鼠害總(zong)體呈(cheng)中(zhong)等偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。東(dong)北大部(bu)(bu)、華南(nan)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)北部(bu)(bu)分地區偏重至大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（4－5級），新疆南(nan)疆四地州大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（5級），華北、華東(dong)、華南(nan)、華中(zhong)大部(bu)(bu)、西(xi)(xi)(xi)北大部(bu)(bu)、西(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)為中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（3級），湖北、重慶、甘肅、寧夏偏輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（2級）。預計全年發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)1.1億戶，與2018年基本持平。
（三(san)）鼠傳疾病發(fa)生(sheng)情況(kuang)
2018年1－11月份，全國(guo)(guo)共發(fa)(fa)生流行性出血(xue)熱10795例、死亡83例，鉤端螺旋體病(bing)166例、無死亡。隨(sui)著(zhu)入春以后氣溫回升，我國(guo)(guo)大(da)部分地區害鼠將進入主繁殖期，種群數(shu)量將不斷增長，并隨(sui)著(zhu)播(bo)種等農(nong)事活動在農(nong)田與農(nong)舍(she)間相互遷移為害，與人接(jie)觸的機會增大(da)，導(dao)致農(nong)村地區將逐步(bu)進入鼠傳疾病(bing)高發(fa)(fa)期，應高度重視。
二、預(yu)報依據
（一）北方鼠密度(du)持(chi)續偏(pian)高，部(bu)分地區(qu)種群(qun)呈恢復性增(zeng)長
據全國140個(ge)(ge)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)區鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)害(hai)(hai)監測(ce)點監測(ce)，2018年北(bei)方(fang)部分地(di)區鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)持續偏高(gao)(gao)(gao)。東北(bei)地(di)區。吉林農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)害(hai)(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei)2%－15%，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)30%；農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)害(hai)(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei)2%－21%，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)35%。黑龍江農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei)5%－25%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)20%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)35.2%，全省(sheng)平均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)在10%以上(shang)的重(zhong)發(fa)面積(ji)達(da)2500萬畝以上(shang)。華北(bei)地(di)區。河北(bei)秋季最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)達(da)10%。山西棕色田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)一般有(you)(you)效洞數(shu)每公(gong)(gong)頃(qing)100－200個(ge)(ge)，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)每公(gong)(gong)頃(qing)可達(da)500個(ge)(ge)，朔州等(deng)地(di)中(zhong)藥材種植田(tian)中(zhong)華鼢鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)平均有(you)(you)效洞數(shu)每公(gong)(gong)頃(qing)10個(ge)(ge)以上(shang)。內蒙古農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei)1%－11%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei) 2%－23%。西北(bei)地(di)區。甘肅農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)地(di)上(shang)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)12.6%，中(zhong)華鼢鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)每公(gong)(gong)頃(qing)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)8只，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)8.1%。青海(hai)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)地(di)上(shang)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei)3.8%－20%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)原鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)種等(deng)地(di)下(xia)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)每公(gong)(gong)頃(qing)4－39只。新(xin)疆農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei)5%－15%，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)30%；農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei)8%－25%；最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)50%。新(xin)疆生產建設(she)兵團(tuan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei)0.5%－13%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)為(wei)1%－14%。
此外，各地應用TBS技術(shu)監測鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)害，青海72個TBS圍(wei)(wei)欄5個月(yue)(yue)共(gong)捕(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)2169只(zhi)；吉林公(gong)主嶺(ling)采用4個60米直線(xian)形(xing)TBS圍(wei)(wei)欄5個月(yue)(yue)共(gong)捕(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)107只(zhi)，柳(liu)河采用4個60米直線(xian)形(xing)TBS圍(wei)(wei)欄5個月(yue)(yue)共(gong)捕(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)70只(zhi)，長(chang)嶺(ling)縣采用4個60米直線(xian)形(xing)TBS圍(wei)(wei)欄5個月(yue)(yue)共(gong)捕(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)208只(zhi)；內蒙古(gu)正藍旗(qi)2個矩形(xing)TBS圍(wei)(wei)欄4個月(yue)(yue)共(gong)捕(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)52只(zhi)；新疆博樂市3個60米直線(xian)形(xing)TBS圍(wei)(wei)欄5個月(yue)(yue)共(gong)捕(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)497只(zhi)老鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)。上述(shu)數據(ju)均表明，北方(fang)大(da)部分(fen)地區(qu)田間鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)類(lei)活動頻繁(fan)，部分(fen)地區(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密度(du)偏高，田間種(zhong)群呈(cheng)恢復性增長(chang)。
（二）南方(fang)大部鼠密(mi)度相對(dui)穩定，局部地(di)區(qu)鼠密(mi)度上(shang)升
南(nan)方大部(bu)分地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)相對穩(wen)定(ding)，華南(nan)部(bu)分區(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)持續(xu)偏高(gao)(gao)，冬季瓜(gua)菜(cai)受(shou)害較重。華東地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)。江蘇農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田平(ping)均(jun)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1.8%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)平(ping)均(jun)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)3.2%。安(an)徽省農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.9%－3.6%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1%－4.1%。江西農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田平(ping)均(jun)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)5.2%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)平(ping)均(jun)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)4.4%。福建農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei) 1%－13%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei) 2%－11%，與歷(li)(li)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)基(ji)本持平(ping)。華中(zhong)(zhong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)。湖(hu)北(bei)、河南(nan)平(ping)均(jun)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在(zai)1%－3%之間，持續(xu)保持較低水平(ping)，但(dan)湖(hu)北(bei)部(bu)分稻(dao)田養(yang)蝦地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達8%以(yi)上(shang)，河南(nan)部(bu)分地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)大倉(cang)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達10%以(yi)上(shang)，比歷(li)(li)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)明(ming)顯上(shang)升。湖(hu)南(nan)秋冬季農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2%－6%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2.5%－8%，與歷(li)(li)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)基(ji)本持平(ping)。華南(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)。廣西農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.5%－7%，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)14.5%；農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)害密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.8%－8.5%，高(gao)(gao)的達15.6%。與2017年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)略高(gao)(gao)。廣東農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)3%－8%，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)20.0%；高(gao)(gao)于2017年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)水平(ping)；梅縣鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)7.5%，高(gao)(gao)于2017年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)的4.6%；江門鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)4.1%，明(ming)顯高(gao)(gao)于2017年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)的1.2%。海南(nan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)3%～15%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2%－14%，其中(zhong)(zhong)臨高(gao)(gao)平(ping)均(jun)捕(bu)獲率為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)12.6%，三(san)亞(ya)市最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)捕(bu)獲率達15%，臨高(gao)(gao)、三(san)亞(ya)等局部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)持續(xu)偏高(gao)(gao)。西南(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)。四川農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1%－8%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.6%－6%，比歷(li)(li)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)基(ji)本持平(ping)。貴州農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)5%－10%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)5%－8%，比2017年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)略有(you)增長。云南(nan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1%－9.9%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1.3%－13%，比歷(li)(li)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)基(ji)本持平(ping)。西藏農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達1%－6.9%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)戶(hu)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達1.2%－10.4%，比2017年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)略有(you)增長。
此外，四川省通江縣、漢源縣、達川區(qu)分(fen)別用2個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)60米(mi)直(zhi)(zhi)線(xian)形(xing)(xing)(xing)TBS圍(wei)(wei)(wei)欄(lan)(lan)6個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)月分(fen)別捕(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)106只(zhi)、105只(zhi)和(he)80只(zhi)；河南郾城區(qu)2個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)60米(mi)直(zhi)(zhi)線(xian)形(xing)(xing)(xing)TBS圍(wei)(wei)(wei)欄(lan)(lan)2個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)月共捕(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)32只(zhi)，貴州(zhou)余慶縣采用720米(mi)封閉式TBS圍(wei)(wei)(wei)欄(lan)(lan)5個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)月共捕(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)443只(zhi)，采用1個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)60米(mi)直(zhi)(zhi)線(xian)形(xing)(xing)(xing)TBS圍(wei)(wei)(wei)欄(lan)(lan)4個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)月捕(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)78只(zhi)，三都縣采用1個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)60米(mi)直(zhi)(zhi)線(xian)形(xing)(xing)(xing)TBS圍(wei)(wei)(wei)欄(lan)(lan)3個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)月捕(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)39只(zhi)，息烽縣采用2個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)60米(mi)封閉式TBS圍(wei)(wei)(wei)欄(lan)(lan)8個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)月共捕(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)119只(zhi)。上述數據均表明，南方大(da)部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)鼠(shu)密度(du)平穩(wen)，種群整體波動不(bu)大(da)，少部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)鼠(shu)密度(du)略有增長。
三、2019年(nian)主(zhu)要優勢鼠種和春季防治時期
東北地區以褐家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、黑線姬鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、黑線倉(cang)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、大倉(cang)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)主要(yao)優勢(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)種(zhong)，春季防治時期為(wei)4月下旬至5月中旬春播(bo)前。
華(hua)北(bei)地(di)區以(yi)黑線倉鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、褐(he)家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、中華(hua)鼢鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、長(chang)爪沙(sha)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、達烏爾黃鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、棕色(se)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)為主要優(you)勢鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)種，春季防治(zhi)時期(qi)為4月(yue)上(shang)旬至5月(yue)上(shang)旬。
西(xi)北地區以褐家鼠(shu)、中(zhong)華鼢鼠(shu)、高(gao)原鼢鼠(shu)、小家鼠(shu)、灰倉鼠(shu)為主要(yao)優勢鼠(shu)種，春季防治時(shi)期為4月中(zhong)旬至5月中(zhong)旬。
華東地區以黑(hei)線姬鼠、黃胸(xiong)鼠、褐(he)家鼠、黃毛(mao)鼠、大(da)倉鼠為(wei)主(zhu)要優勢(shi)鼠種，春季防治時期為(wei)3月中旬至4月中旬。
華中地(di)區以黑線姬(ji)鼠(shu)(shu)、褐(he)家鼠(shu)(shu)、棕色田鼠(shu)(shu)、黃胸鼠(shu)(shu)、大倉(cang)鼠(shu)(shu)為主要優勢鼠(shu)(shu)種，春季防治時(shi)期為3月上旬至4月中旬。
華南地區以黃毛(mao)鼠(shu)、板(ban)齒鼠(shu)、褐家(jia)鼠(shu)、小(xiao)家(jia)鼠(shu)、黃胸鼠(shu)為主要優勢(shi)鼠(shu)種，春季防治時期為2月下旬至4月上旬。
西南地區以(yi)黃胸鼠、短尾鼩、黑線姬鼠、褐家鼠、高山姬鼠等為主要優勢鼠種，春(chun)季防治時期為3月下旬至4月下旬。
預計海南、廣西部分地(di)區(qu)(qu)1月(yue)中(zhong)旬(xun)至2月(yue)底即(ji)出現首次(ci)為(wei)害高峰(feng)期，南方(fang)(fang)大部分地(di)區(qu)(qu)3月(yue)下旬(xun)至4月(yue)上(shang)(shang)旬(xun)為(wei)嚴(yan)重為(wei)害期，北方(fang)(fang)地(di)區(qu)(qu)5月(yue)上(shang)(shang)旬(xun)至6月(yue)上(shang)(shang)旬(xun)為(wei)嚴(yan)重為(wei)害期。北方(fang)(fang)部分地(di)區(qu)(qu)春(chun)播和(he)南方(fang)(fang)冬季蔬菜(cai)生產將受到害鼠(shu)影(ying)響(xiang)，特(te)別是北方(fang)(fang)水稻插秧(yang)期、春(chun)播玉米田、大豆田預計受害較重。
