根(gen)據本(ben)地誘蛾量及卵巢發(fa)育進度、外地蟲(chong)源，結合(he)氣象條(tiao)件等情(qing)況，預測我省今年二代粘蟲總體發(fa)生程度1級，輕于去年，局部地區有暴發為害風險。

近(jin)期(qi)(qi)(qi)，我省大(da)部分監測點誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量低(di)(di)于去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)，卵(luan)巢(chao)發育進度(du)(du)比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)偏早。高(gao)(gao)空測報(bao)燈誘(you)(you)(you)(you)測，5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)以來長(chang)島高(gao)(gao)空測報(bao)燈累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)548頭(tou)(tou)，是去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量的20.85%；萊(lai)州5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)7日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)120頭(tou)(tou),6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)7日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)單燈誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)40頭(tou)(tou)。蟲情測報(bao)燈誘(you)(you)(you)(you)測，商河截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)72頭(tou)(tou)，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占52.78%；滕州截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)2日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)82頭(tou)(tou)，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占52.44%；淄博截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)共(gong)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)244頭(tou)(tou)，是去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)的10%，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占67.62%，卵(luan)巢(chao)發育3級(ji)以上(shang)(shang)占60.39%；汶上(shang)(shang)截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量706 頭(tou)(tou)，是去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)的10%，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占44.3%，蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)峰日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)136頭(tou)(tou)；章丘截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)120頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)歷(li)年(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)12.7%，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)低(di)(di)61.6%，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占65%，蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)峰日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)18頭(tou)(tou)；鄒(zou)城5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)12日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)3日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)329頭(tou)(tou)，是去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)的27.2%,蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)峰日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)1日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)61頭(tou)(tou)；定陶(tao)截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)10日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)共(gong)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)集216頭(tou)(tou)，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占50.9%，發育進度(du)(du)主要為3-4級(ji)；煙(yan)臺截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)354頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)略低(di)(di)，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占74.01%，卵(luan)巢(chao)發育3級(ji)以上(shang)(shang)占70.56%；東平(ping)(ping)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)31日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)505頭(tou)(tou)，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占51.29%；龍口5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)11日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)4日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)176.8頭(tou)(tou)，是近(jin)十(shi)余年(nian)(nian)來同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)最多的一年(nian)(nian)，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占50.5%；東明6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)7日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)10日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)3176頭(tou)(tou)，雌(ci)(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占75.1%，是去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)的6.05倍。

據(ju)全國(guo)農技中心通報(bao)，華北(bei)和(he)東(dong)北(bei)地(di)區蟲情(qing)測(ce)報(bao)燈(deng)(deng)多(duo)在6月(yue)上旬見蛾(e)(e)峰，大部地(di)區蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)低于去年(nian)(nian)和(he)常年(nian)(nian)。河北(bei)多(duo)地(di)在6月(yue)1日(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)突(tu)增，平(ping)鄉單(dan)(dan)(dan)燈(deng)(deng)單(dan)(dan)(dan)日(ri)(ri)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)113頭(tou)，1－3日(ri)(ri)累(lei)(lei)計誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)為379頭(tou)；邯鄲(dan)永年(nian)(nian)區6月(yue)1日(ri)(ri)單(dan)(dan)(dan)燈(deng)(deng)單(dan)(dan)(dan)日(ri)(ri)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)由前期的不(bu)足10頭(tou)增至51頭(tou)；安新6月(yue)1日(ri)(ri)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)39頭(tou)。山西鹽湖5月(yue)30日(ri)(ri)至6月(yue)7日(ri)(ri)單(dan)(dan)(dan)燈(deng)(deng)累(lei)(lei)計誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)525頭(tou)；晉城6月(yue)1－7日(ri)(ri)單(dan)(dan)(dan)燈(deng)(deng)累(lei)(lei)計誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)150頭(tou)。遼寧建(jian)平(ping)6月(yue)9日(ri)(ri)出(chu)現蛾(e)(e)峰，單(dan)(dan)(dan)燈(deng)(deng)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)190頭(tou)，雌(ci)雄(xiong)比5:1，96%的雌(ci)蛾(e)(e)卵巢(chao)發育(yu)為3級；北(bei)票5月(yue)20日(ri)(ri)以(yi)來單(dan)(dan)(dan)燈(deng)(deng)累(lei)(lei)計誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)68頭(tou)；法庫6月(yue)6－8日(ri)(ri)單(dan)(dan)(dan)燈(deng)(deng)累(lei)(lei)計誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)34頭(tou)。

據國家氣象(xiang)局預測(ce)，6月份華北、黃淮降(jiang)水偏少2－5成(cheng)、氣溫偏高(gao)1－2℃，對二(er)代粘(zhan)(zhan)蟲的發生為害有一定抑(yi)制作用。6月份，我省(sheng)高(gao)空大部(bu)分時(shi)段盛行(xing)西南氣流，是一代粘(zhan)(zhan)蟲成(cheng)蟲北遷過境我省(sheng)的高(gao)峰期(qi)。6月中旬至7月上旬，二(er)代粘(zhan)(zhan)蟲在我省(sheng)局部(bu)地區有暴(bao)發為害風(feng)險。

鑒(jian)于粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)遷飛能力強、低齡幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)為(wei)害(hai)(hai)隱蔽的特點，各級植保部(bu)門務必要提高警惕(ti)，充分(fen)利用(yong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)情測(ce)(ce)報(bao)(bao)燈、高空測(ce)(ce)報(bao)(bao)燈等監(jian)測(ce)(ce)工具加強監(jian)測(ce)(ce)，密切關注粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發生動態，及時(shi)發布蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)情預報(bao)(bao)和(he)防(fang)治(zhi)警報(bao)(bao)。同時(shi)，要提前(qian)制定(ding)應急(ji)防(fang)控預案，全力做好(hao)科(ke)學防(fang)治(zhi)指導(dao)工作，確保一旦(dan)田間蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)情嚴重，可在最短(duan)時(shi)間內控制危害(hai)(hai)。