預報我省四代棉鈴蟲1級,魯西南和魯中棉區局部2級,發生期較常年和去年偏晚。主要棉區三代成蟲發生盛期一般在8月15日至9月5日左右,8月18日前后各棉區將陸續進入四代卵盛期,南部棉區卵峰日一般在8月25日左右,北部棉區卵峰日一般在8月29日左右。
預報依(yi)據:
1、三代(dai)殘蟲(chong)量(liang)偏(pian)低。據(ju)各監測(ce)點(dian)(dian)調(diao)查(cha),三代棉(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)平(ping)均畝殘蟲(chong)量一般在12-77.4頭,全省平(ping)均33.92頭,低(di)(di)(di)于去年(nian)40.87頭,低(di)(di)(di)于歷年(nian)平(ping)均水平(ping)(53.74頭)。大部分監測(ce)點(dian)(dian)監測(ce)數據(ju)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)低(di)(di)(di):魯(lu)西南棉(mian)區(qu)測(ce)報點(dian)(dian)調(diao)查(cha),濟(ji)寧較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)低(di)(di)(di)49.4%,菏澤較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)高8.24%,成(cheng)武較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)低(di)(di)(di)9.11%,鄆(yun)城較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)低(di)(di)(di)16.2%,定(ding)陶(tao)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)低(di)(di)(di)24.7%;魯(lu)西北、魯(lu)北和魯(lu)東棉(mian)區(qu)測(ce)報點(dian)(dian)調(diao)查(cha),夏津較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)低(di)(di)(di)54.52%,聊城較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)低(di)(di)(di)34.08%,濱州較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)低(di)(di)(di)81.5%,章丘(qiu)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)低(di)(di)(di)8.4%,高密較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)低(di)(di)(di)14.29%,商(shang)河較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)高5.97%。根(gen)據(ju)各種寄(ji)主作物(wu)總面積計算的總幼蟲(chong)量較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)低(di)(di)(di)39.44%。
2、幼蟲發育進度較(jiao)常年和去年同(tong)期偏晚。根據各(ge)監測點8月4~10日幼蟲(chong)齡期調查結(jie)果(guo)計算,1~6齡幼蟲(chong)所占比例分別為10.24%、17.23%、25.40%、23.00%、16.59%、7.54%,發育進(jin)度(du)較(jiao)常年和(he)去年同(tong)期偏晚(去年同(tong)期為5.23%、9.60%、24.06%、32.80%、20.49%、7.46%)。
3、氣象(xiang)條(tiao)件對棉(mian)鈴蟲發生較為有利。8月上旬(xun),我省主要棉(mian)(mian)(mian)區氣(qi)(qi)溫較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)偏(pian)高(gao),降水(shui)較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)偏(pian)多(duo),對三代棉(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)(ling)蟲生長(chang)發育無明顯不利影響(xiang),但受副高(gao)邊(bian)緣暖濕氣(qi)(qi)流和(he)冷空(kong)氣(qi)(qi)共同影響(xiang),多(duo)地棉(mian)(mian)(mian)區出現強降雨,對棉(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)(ling)蟲蟲量(liang)和(he)卵量(liang)有(you)一定的(de)抑制作用。據氣(qi)(qi)象預報,8月中下旬(xun),主要棉(mian)(mian)(mian)區平(ping)均氣(qi)(qi)溫較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)略偏(pian)高(gao),降水(shui)量(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)略偏(pian)多(duo),總體(ti)(ti)氣(qi)(qi)象條件有(you)利于棉(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)(ling)蟲卵的(de)孵化和(he)初孵幼蟲成活。
4、寄主條件。目前,我省大(da)部分棉(mian)(mian)區棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)長(chang)勢較好,且(qie)棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)已經進入(ru)生(sheng)長(chang)后(hou)期(qi),抗(kang)蟲棉(mian)(mian)抗(kang)性較生(sheng)長(chang)前期(qi)有(you)所減弱,以(yi)上條件對四代棉(mian)(mian)鈴蟲發生(sheng)較為有(you)利(li)。