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在(zai)(zai)上(shang)海召開的(de)全(quan)國農(nong)藥(yao)(yao)需求預測會(hui)商會(hui)上(shang)，與會(hui)專(zhuan)家一致認為，地理生態條(tiao)件(jian)、農(nong)作物種(zhong)植面積(ji)、病蟲(chong)(chong)草害及抗藥(yao)(yao)性是影響農(nong)業發展(zhan)的(de)主要因素，農(nong)藥(yao)(yao)行業結(jie)構將(jiang)在(zai)(zai)服務農(nong)業發展(zhan)中調(diao)整。今后三(san)(san)年內，在(zai)(zai)農(nong)藥(yao)(yao)三(san)(san)大(da)類(lei)別(bie)中，殺(sha)蟲(chong)(chong)劑競(jing)爭(zheng)激烈，除(chu)草劑中非選擇性品(pin)種(zhong)需求量將(jiang)不斷增大(da)，殺(sha)菌劑將(jiang)穩定發展(zhan)。

    業(ye)界專家通過分(fen)析近(jin)五年(nian)國內(nei)(nei)農(nong)藥市(shi)場需(xu)求變(bian)化認(ren)為，國內(nei)(nei)市(shi)場農(nong)藥需(xu)求總(zong)(zong)量(liang)近(jin)三年(nian)內(nei)(nei)不(bu)(bu)會出現明顯大(da)(da)起大(da)(da)落，但殺(sha)蟲劑(ji)(ji)(ji)、除(chu)(chu)草(cao)(cao)劑(ji)(ji)(ji)和殺(sha)菌劑(ji)(ji)(ji)之(zhi)間需(xu)求比例將出現較大(da)(da)變(bian)化。上(shang)海農(nong)藥研究所張(zhang)一賓教授指出，根據(ju)(ju)目(mu)前的(de)統(tong)計數據(ju)(ju)，今年(nian)農(nong)藥總(zong)(zong)用量(liang)與去年(nian)相比變(bian)化不(bu)(bu)是(shi)(shi)很大(da)(da)，出口增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速也(ye)在放緩(huan)，生產(chan)(chan)總(zong)(zong)量(liang)有(you)所增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長，市(shi)場依然是(shi)(shi)供過于求，但三大(da)(da)類別結構調(diao)整更趨合理。今年(nian)是(shi)(shi)全(quan)面(mian)禁用甲(jia)胺磷(lin)(lin)等5種(zhong)高毒有(you)機(ji)磷(lin)(lin)農(nong)藥的(de)第一年(nian)，全(quan)國農(nong)技推(tui)廣服務(wu)中(zhong)心通過篩選、示范，推(tui)薦(jian)了29個品種(zhong)和32項配套(tao)應用技術(shu)(shu)，作為替代品種(zhong)和使用技術(shu)(shu)，但在這些(xie)品種(zhong)中(zhong)缺少真正的(de)拳頭產(chan)(chan)品。他認(ren)為，今后三年(nian)，殺(sha)蟲劑(ji)(ji)(ji)市(shi)場諸侯混戰，企業(ye)間競爭激(ji)烈。近(jin)年(nian)來(lai)，氣(qi)候變(bian)化異常，南方一些(xie)稻(dao)區褐(he)飛虱、白(bai)背(bei)飛虱、稻(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟(ming)等蟲源(yuan)地(di)面(mian)積擴大(da)(da)，殺(sha)蟲劑(ji)(ji)(ji)需(xu)求呈現波(bo)動態勢。在新(xin)產(chan)(chan)品、新(xin)技術(shu)(shu)尚未完(wan)全(quan)得到消費者認(ren)可之(zhi)前，菊(ju)酯類、有(you)機(ji)磷(lin)(lin)類產(chan)(chan)品仍(reng)將唱(chang)主角(jiao)，吡(bi)蟲啉需(xu)求量(liang)還將有(you)所增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加。由于蔬菜和水(shui)果種(zhong)植面(mian)積不(bu)(bu)斷擴大(da)(da)，殺(sha)菌劑(ji)(ji)(ji)今年(nian)用量(liang)穩中(zhong)有(you)升(sheng)，但增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅不(bu)(bu)大(da)(da)。由于國內(nei)(nei)農(nong)村勞動力大(da)(da)量(liang)轉移、免(mian)耕(geng)等農(nong)業(ye)耕(geng)作技術(shu)(shu)的(de)推(tui)廣，帶動了除(chu)(chu)草(cao)(cao)劑(ji)(ji)(ji)消費增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長，除(chu)(chu)草(cao)(cao)劑(ji)(ji)(ji)市(shi)場增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長速度在三大(da)(da)類農(nong)藥中(zhong)最快，其中(zhong)非選擇性(xing)除(chu)(chu)草(cao)(cao)劑(ji)(ji)(ji)需(xu)求量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長明顯，東(dong)三省(sheng)大(da)(da)豆(dou)封(feng)閉除(chu)(chu)草(cao)(cao)劑(ji)(ji)(ji)、玉米田苗后除(chu)(chu)草(cao)(cao)劑(ji)(ji)(ji)用量(liang)也(ye)均有(you)所上(shang)升(sheng)，尤其是(shi)(shi)草(cao)(cao)甘膦需(xu)求量(liang)在全(quan)球范圍穩中(zhong)有(you)升(sheng)。

    全國(guo)(guo)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)技(ji)推廣(guang)服務中心梁桂梅副處長認(ren)為(wei)(wei)，近年(nian)來(lai)國(guo)(guo)家一(yi)系列惠農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)政(zheng)策(ce)和新農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村建設的(de)(de)實施，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民收入(ru)得到顯(xian)著提(ti)(ti)高(gao)，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民加大(da)了對農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥等農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資的(de)(de)投(tou)入(ru)，從而拉(la)動了高(gao)效、低(di)毒、低(di)殘留農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥需(xu)(xu)求增(zeng)長。農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥結構(gou)必將圍(wei)繞(rao)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業生產不(bu)斷調整。對此，業內專家也認(ren)為(wei)(wei)，隨著種植技(ji)術的(de)(de)多(duo)樣化，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民施藥技(ji)術的(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)以及預測(ce)手段的(de)(de)進化，未(wei)來(lai)幾年(nian)，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥市場需(xu)(xu)求量將維(wei)持在30萬噸左右（折純）。其(qi)中，殺(sha)蟲劑所(suo)占(zhan)份(fen)額下降(jiang)，除草劑、殺(sha)菌劑份(fen)額將有所(suo)提(ti)(ti)升。

與會專家一致建議，應進一步規范農藥需求量統計方法。浙江大學農學院唐啟義教授認為，準確預測農藥市場，對保證國家糧食生產安全、科學制定農藥政策、農藥企業科學決策、合理調整產品和產業結構均具有重要意義。