進入七月份，化肥行業進入需求淡季，國內對于氮肥的需求將會減少，國內尿素企業(ye)為拿到化肥出口的話(hua)語權，挺價(jia)堅持。短線看來，液(ye)氨市場(chang)在尿(niao)素市場(chang)行情尚可的支撐下(xia)，行情有所好轉，暫(zan)時盤整向(xiang)好發展。后期隨著淡(dan)季的來臨，液(ye)氨將何(he)(he)去(qu)何(he)(he)從？
六(liu)月(yue)(yue)份以來(lai)，國內液(ye)氨市(shi)(shi)場(chang)一改原有(you)(you)頹勢，在(zai)(zai)尿素行(xing)(xing)情(qing)見好(hao)的支撐(cheng)下(xia)(xia)，一直呈(cheng)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)行(xing)(xing)之勢。就河北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)來(lai)說，六(liu)月(yue)(yue)初主(zhu)流價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定在(zai)(zai)2150元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)，企(qi)業實際成交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)低(di)(di)于(yu)2000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)，截止到(dao)六(liu)月(yue)(yue)底，其主(zhu)流價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)漲(zhang)(zhang)至(zhi)2300元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅達(da)(da)100-150元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環比上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)6%以上(shang)。目(mu)前(qian)，各地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)行(xing)(xing)情(qing)暫穩(wen)(wen)(wen)，部分(fen)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)由于(yu)供需狀況變(bian)化，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)有(you)(you)所(suo)波動。山東、江蘇(su)(su)、安徽(hui)、河南(nan)(nan)等地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)液(ye)氨市(shi)(shi)場(chang)盤整運行(xing)(xing)。山東主(zhu)流價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)為(wei)(wei)2350-2420元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)承(cheng)兌(dui)(dui)，魯南(nan)(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定在(zai)(zai)2500-2550元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)承(cheng)兌(dui)(dui)，實際成交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)在(zai)(zai)2470-2500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，當(dang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)有(you)(you)企(qi)業停(ting)車檢修(xiu)，放(fang)貨量(liang)減少。江蘇(su)(su)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定在(zai)(zai)2420-2440元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)承(cheng)兌(dui)(dui)，成交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)2370-2400元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；蘇(su)(su)南(nan)(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)在(zai)(zai)2650元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)承(cheng)兌(dui)(dui)。安徽(hui)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)供需基本達(da)(da)到(dao)平衡，主(zhu)流價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)(zai)2480-2530元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)承(cheng)兌(dui)(dui)，皖南(nan)(nan)在(zai)(zai)2450元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)，安徽(hui)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)廠家(jia)實際成交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)低(di)(di)于(yu)出廠100-200元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。河南(nan)(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)持穩(wen)(wen)(wen)運行(xing)(xing)，出廠報價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定在(zai)(zai)2280元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)，廠家(jia)實際成交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)低(di)(di)于(yu)2200元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)，后(hou)期行(xing)(xing)情(qing)或會(hui)有(you)(you)所(suo)疲軟(ruan)。河北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)月(yue)(yue)末價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)相比于(yu)六(liu)月(yue)(yue)最高點有(you)(you)所(suo)下(xia)(xia)行(xing)(xing)，目(mu)前(qian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)(zai)2250元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)，廠家(jia)實際成交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)變(bian)化不(bu)大(da)，仍然維持在(zai)(zai)2150-2200元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)。湖北(bei)(bei)、湖南(nan)(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)由于(yu)某大(da)型企(qi)業裝置故障停(ting)車檢修(xiu)，供需關系發生(sheng)變(bian)化，價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)大(da)幅走高，目(mu)前(qian)湖北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主(zhu)流報價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)2500-2700元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)承(cheng)兌(dui)(dui)，貿易商經銷價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)2500-2550元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)承(cheng)兌(dui)(dui)；湖南(nan)(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)(zai)2400-2450元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)承(cheng)兌(dui)(dui)；預(yu)計后(hou)期兩湖地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)上(shang)行(xing)(xing)空間不(bu)大(da)，盤整運行(xing)(xing)為(wei)(wei)主(zhu)。四川地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)行(xing)(xing)情(qing)有(you)(you)所(suo)疲軟(ruan)，目(mu)前(qian)主(zhu)流報價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)2400-2450元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)，據悉當(dang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)企(qi)業實際成交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)2250-2300元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)。新疆地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)疆內銷售價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)(zai)1800-2000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)。
雖然化肥行業淡季來臨，但是夏季的到來各行業并未減少對于液氨的需求量。首先，由于液氨制冷工藝制冷面積較大，而且成本較低，所以目前各大冷庫均拋棄氟化工制冷，而使用液氨，夏季對于液氨的需求量大大增加；而且夏季用電量必會增加，此時火電廠為降低污染，對于液氨的需求量也會增加；對于養殖業來說，為確保室內溫度不至于過高，也會增加液氨的使用量來調節溫度；而且尿素如果按當前印度招標價格進行出口，則國內尿素行情必然大跌，屆時國內液氨行情也會有較大的下行之勢，但是國內尿素企業卻挺價堅持，拒絕此次中標價格外賣，再次影響下國內尿素價格未跌反漲，這無疑在這個化肥淡季給液氨市場帶來利好支撐；秋季用肥，磷肥占主導，而且磷酸一銨、磷酸二銨行情目前一直向好發展，液氨作為其主要原料之一必不可少，所以磷肥的向好發展，也給液氨的盤整向好帶來支撐。綜合來看，雖然國內化肥行業淡季來臨，但是短期內對于液氨的需求量有增無減，雖然尿素行情的好壞對于液氨市場影響巨大，但是夏季來臨，綜合各方面因素來看，即使后期尿素有所下行，若不大幅跳水，對于當前國內液氨市場也并無太大影響。照目前來看，雖然國內氮肥行業即將進入淡季，但是隨著伏季的來臨，國內對于液氨的需求量將會增加，短線內或會有向好之勢，預計后期盤整運行為主。
