一(yi)、發(fa)生趨勢

根(gen)據(ju)13個(ge)區農田鼠情監測數(shu)據(ju)及7個(ge)區TBS示(shi)范區捕鼠情況，結合(he)氣(qi)象、栽培、害鼠的生物學(xue)特(te)性等因素(su)綜合(he)分析，預計2017年全(quan)市農(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)害(hai)呈上升趨勢，總(zong)體(ti)發生(sheng)水(shui)平(ping)為輕發生(sheng)，發(fa)生面(mian)積150萬畝次，其中(zhong)春季發(fa)生面(mian)積110萬畝，秋(qiu)季發(fa)生面(mian)積40萬畝。其中(zhong)：

1.糧(liang)田：糧田鼠密(mi)度0－8％，平均鼠密(mi)度在(zai)2％以下，個別地塊鼠密(mi)度在(zai)8％左右。優勢鼠種為黑線(xian)姬鼠。

2.城(cheng)鄉結(jie)合部：城鄉(xiang)結合部鼠密(mi)(mi)度(du)在(zai)0－3％，平(ping)均鼠密(mi)(mi)度(du)在(zai)1％以下(xia)。優勢鼠種(zhong)為褐(he)家鼠。

3.果園：果(guo)園鼠(shu)密度(du)(du)0－3％，平均鼠(shu)密度(du)(du)在1％以下。優勢鼠(shu)種為小家(jia)鼠(shu)。

4.設(she)施(shi)蔬菜：設(she)施蔬菜鼠(shu)密度(du)(du)0－4％，平均鼠(shu)密度(du)(du)在(zai)1％以下。優勢鼠(shu)種為小家鼠(shu)。

5.林荒地：林荒地鼠(shu)密度在(zai)0－3％，平(ping)均鼠(shu)密度在(zai)1％以下(xia)。優勢鼠(shu)種為小家鼠(shu)。

二(er)、預報依據

（一）農(nong)田(tian)害鼠密度(du)呈上(shang)升趨勢(shi)

1．年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)率(lv)上升(sheng)。夾(jia)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)法(fa)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)率(lv)比(bi)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)所上升(sheng)，TBS法(fa)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)率(lv)與(yu)(yu)夾(jia)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)法(fa)接(jie)近(jin)(jin)。全市采用夾(jia)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)法(fa)調查67塊樣(yang)地（比(bi)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)同期(qi)增加(jia)2塊），2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)3－11月(yue)份共(gong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)各種害鼠158只，比(bi)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)的137只增加(jia)21只，年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)率(lv)為0.3%，略(lve)高(gao)(gao)(gao)于2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)的0.2%。年(nian)(nian)(nian)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)高(gao)(gao)(gao)峰(feng)出(chu)現(xian)在5月(yue)-6月(yue)，捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)率(lv)均(jun)為0.4%，比(bi)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)減少1個高(gao)(gao)(gao)峰(feng)。最高(gao)(gao)(gao)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)鼠樣(yang)地在順(shun)義麥(mai)田，捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)率(lv)為6%。TBS法(fa)共(gong)設(she)9個，1-12月(yue)共(gong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)鼠589只，年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)率(lv)為0.2%，比(bi)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)的1.1%明顯下降，與(yu)(yu)夾(jia)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)法(fa)接(jie)近(jin)(jin)，年(nian)(nian)(nian)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)高(gao)(gao)(gao)峰(feng)在8月(yue)和12月(yue)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)率(lv)分別為0.26%和0.74%，與(yu)(yu)夾(jia)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)法(fa)存在一定差異。

2．農(nong)田鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密度(du)分布不均(jun)(jun)。夾捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)法監(jian)測(ce)涉及糧(liang)田、設(she)(she)施(shi)蔬菜(cai)、果園(yuan)、林荒地、城鄉結(jie)合部等5種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)農(nong)田環境。其(qi)中(zhong)糧(liang)田共(gong)(gong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)4種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)害(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)55只(zhi)(zhi)，比2015年增(zeng)加7只(zhi)(zhi)，平均(jun)(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.4%，比2015年的(de)(de)0.3%略有(you)(you)上升，樣地最(zui)高捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)6%，以黑線(xian)姬鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)優(you)勢(shi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)群，占總(zong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)數的(de)(de)67.3%；設(she)(she)施(shi)蔬菜(cai)共(gong)(gong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)2種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)害(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)50只(zhi)(zhi)，平均(jun)(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)率(lv)0.2%，樣地最(zui)高捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)3%，以小(xiao)家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)優(you)勢(shi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)群，占總(zong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)數的(de)(de)68.0%；果園(yuan)共(gong)(gong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)4種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)害(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)36只(zhi)(zhi)，比去(qu)年增(zeng)加了(le)1個鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)數增(zeng)加了(le)1倍，平均(jun)(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.3%，樣地最(zui)高捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)3%，以小(xiao)家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)優(you)勢(shi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)群，占總(zong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)數的(de)(de)80.6%；林荒地共(gong)(gong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)4種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)害(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)17只(zhi)(zhi)，平均(jun)(jun)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.1%，樣地最(zui)高捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2%，以小(xiao)家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)優(you)勢(shi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)群，占總(zong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)數的(de)(de)58.8%；城鄉結(jie)合部沒有(you)(you)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)害(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)。TBS鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)情(qing)監(jian)測(ce)設(she)(she)置在設(she)(she)施(shi)園(yuan)區(qu)和水稻田，共(gong)(gong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)獲(huo)(huo)(huo)5種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)害(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)589只(zhi)(zhi)，以小(xiao)家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)優(you)勢(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，占總(zong)捕(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)數的(de)(de)62.1%。

3．月均捕獲率(lv)大于(yu)等于(yu)1%的區(qu)個(ge)數增加(jia)。夾捕法3－11月共(gong)有(you)3個(ge)區(qu)9個(ge)月平(ping)均捕獲率(lv)達(da)(da)到1％以上，比(bi)2015年增加(jia)3個(ge)月，其中(zhong)順義區(qu)6月份平(ping)均捕獲率(lv)達(da)(da)到2.3％，懷(huai)柔區(qu)年平(ping)均捕獲率(lv)也達(da)(da)到1%。

4．系統(tong)監(jian)測結果呈上升(sheng)趨勢。夾捕(bu)法(fa)系統(tong)監(jian)測點2016年(nian)(nian)共捕(bu)鼠39只，比(bi)2015年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)(jia)了(le)(le)4只，鼠種(zhong)有黑線(xian)姬鼠、小(xiao)家鼠和褐家鼠，比(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)(jia)了(le)(le)褐家鼠。經解剖調查，害鼠的(de)繁(fan)殖率為82.1%，比(bi)2015年(nian)(nian)的(de)68.6%增加(jia)(jia)了(le)(le)13.5%。其中雌性繁(fan)殖鼠13只，比(bi)2015年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)(jia)2只，共產(chan)仔172只，比(bi)2015年(nian)(nian)的(de)69只增加(jia)(jia)了(le)(le)103只，平(ping)均胎仔數(shu)7.4只，與2015年(nian)(nian)的(de)7.9只接近。繁(fan)殖鼠數(shu)和胎仔數(shu)的(de)增加(jia)(jia)，說(shuo)明害鼠種(zhong)群數(shu)量將呈現上升(sheng)趨勢。

（二）農田害(hai)鼠種類增加，種群結構發(fa)生變化(hua)

夾(jia)捕(bu)(bu)法捕(bu)(bu)獲(huo)的(de)害鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)有6種，即(ji)黑線姬鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、小(xiao)(xiao)家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、褐家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、大倉鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、社鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、黑線倉鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)等，比2015年增加(jia)黑線倉鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)，具體種群結構(gou)如圖(tu)2。以(yi)小(xiao)(xiao)家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)為優勢鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)種，占(zhan)總捕(bu)(bu)獲(huo)量的(de)55.7%。TBS捕(bu)(bu)獲(huo)的(de)害鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)也是(shi)5種，即(ji)黑線姬鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、小(xiao)(xiao)家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、褐家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、大倉鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)、鼩鼱等，與(yu)夾(jia)捕(bu)(bu)法相同(tong)，也是(shi)以(yi)小(xiao)(xiao)家鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)為優勢鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)種，占(zhan)總捕(bu)(bu)獲(huo)量的(de)62.1%。

（三）環境(jing)條件利于(yu)鼠害發生

2016年冬季屬暖冬氣候，有(you)利于害(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)的越冬存活，設(she)施面積的增加為害(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)提供了(le)越冬場所和食物；同時，鼠(shu)(shu)密(mi)度(du)(du)較(jiao)低也(ye)為害(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)提供了(le)較(jiao)多的生態(tai)位；再(zai)加上鼠(shu)(shu)類具有(you)的遷(qian)移習(xi)性和超(chao)強補償繁殖能力，使農田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)密(mi)度(du)(du)存在快速反彈的風險。