今年(nian)江淮(huai)和(he)黃(huang)淮(huai)麥區(qu)(qu)一代粘(zhan)蟲(chong)成蟲(chong)數(shu)量高，東(dong)(dong)北大部和(he)華北部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu)遷入量大，且東(dong)(dong)北多(duo)地(di)見(jian)二(er)代卵高峰(feng)，部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu)查見(jian)低齡幼蟲(chong)，結(jie)合天氣條件，預計二(er)代粘(zhan)蟲(chong)總體(ti)偏重發(fa)生，東(dong)(dong)北局(ju)部地(di)區(qu)(qu)會出現高密度(du)集中為害(hai)，為害(hai)程度(du)輕于重發(fa)的(de)2012年(nian)和(he)2013年(nian)，重于2014-2016年(nian)，全國發(fa)生面積3500萬畝(mu)，幼蟲(chong)發(fa)生盛(sheng)期在6月下旬至7月上旬。
一(yi)、江淮(huai)和黃淮(huai)麥區一(yi)代成(cheng)蟲(chong)數量(liang)高(gao)
5月(yue)(yue)(yue)下旬以來，江蘇、安徽、河(he)(he)南、山東(dong)、陜(shan)西(xi)等地(di)(di)一代(dai)成蟲(chong)進入發生高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)期(qi)(qi)，大(da)部(bu)地(di)(di)區誘(you)(you)蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)前(qian)兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)。江蘇東(dong)臺5月(yue)(yue)(yue)23日(ri)(ri)(ri)至6月(yue)(yue)(yue)7日(ri)(ri)(ri)黑(hei)光(guang)(guang)(guang)燈(deng)出現(xian)一遷出峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)，峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)期(qi)(qi)蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為217頭(tou)(tou)，分別是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)和前(qian)年(nian)(nian)的(de)9.0倍(bei)(bei)和6.8倍(bei)(bei)；姜堰高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)空燈(deng)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)25日(ri)(ri)(ri)至6月(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)(ri)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)期(qi)(qi)蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達9657，是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)的(de)11.6倍(bei)(bei)。安徽淮北(bei)地(di)(di)區黑(hei)光(guang)(guang)(guang)燈(deng)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)501-2656頭(tou)(tou)，是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)3-5倍(bei)(bei)；高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)期(qi)(qi)出現(xian)在(zai)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)29日(ri)(ri)(ri)至6月(yue)(yue)(yue)6日(ri)(ri)(ri)之間，峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)一般為121-380頭(tou)(tou)，靈璧縣(xian)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)6日(ri)(ri)(ri)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)達1252頭(tou)(tou)。河(he)(he)南誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)在(zai)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)底前(qian)后，多地(di)(di)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)居于(yu)(yu)近(jin)幾年(nian)(nian)的(de)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)位，如長(chang)葛市(shi)黑(hei)光(guang)(guang)(guang)燈(deng)單日(ri)(ri)(ri)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達1196頭(tou)(tou)。山東(dong)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)底和6月(yue)(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)旬出現(xian)兩(liang)個(ge)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)，萊州(zhou)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)空燈(deng)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)746頭(tou)(tou)，是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)的(de)14.3 倍(bei)(bei)，峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為141頭(tou)(tou)；即墨黑(hei)光(guang)(guang)(guang)燈(deng)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)達2050頭(tou)(tou)，是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)的(de)30倍(bei)(bei)，5月(yue)(yue)(yue)29日(ri)(ri)(ri)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為930頭(tou)(tou)；淄博累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)900頭(tou)(tou)，蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)日(ri)(ri)(ri)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)292頭(tou)(tou)，濟寧累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)299頭(tou)(tou)，兩(liang)地(di)(di)蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)均(jun)是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)的(de)5倍(bei)(bei)；郯城、汶上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)、鄒城、煙臺累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)373頭(tou)(tou)-574頭(tou)(tou)，峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)70-178頭(tou)(tou)，均(jun)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)。陜(shan)西(xi)興(xing)平黑(hei)光(guang)(guang)(guang)燈(deng)累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)94頭(tou)(tou)，比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)偏高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)25.3%，6月(yue)(yue)(yue)3日(ri)(ri)(ri)誘(you)(you)蟲(chong)57頭(tou)(tou)，是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)的(de)3.4倍(bei)(bei)，其他大(da)部(bu)地(di)(di)區累(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為5-25頭(tou)(tou)。
二、東北(bei)大(da)(da)部和華北(bei)部分地區成(cheng)蟲遷入量大(da)(da)
吉林、內(nei)蒙(meng)古、遼寧和黑龍江等東北(bei)大部5月(yue)下旬始(shi)成蟲(chong)遷入數量(liang)(liang)較高。吉林5月(yue)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)長嶺始(shi)見成蟲(chong)，隨(sui)后各地陸續誘(you)到成蟲(chong)，從5月(yue)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)到6月(yue)10日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，17個(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)、區）累(lei)計(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)285頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。5月(yue)24日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至(zhi)6月(yue)1日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，公主嶺誘(you)蛾(e)器(qi)誘(you)蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)148頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，為(wei)2014、2015、2016年的8.7倍、1.5倍和3.5倍。內(nei)蒙(meng)古興(xing)安(an)盟(meng)科右中旗誘(you)蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)150頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，是往年平均(jun)值的數倍，通遼市(shi)各測報站點燈下誘(you)蛾(e)和誘(you)蛾(e)器(qi)日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)誘(you)成蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)均(jun)在20頭(tou)(tou)(tou)以(yi)下。遼寧西北(bei)部區的朝陽、葫蘆島蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)高，朝陽市(shi)成蟲(chong)始(shi)見日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)5月(yue)21日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，比歷年早8天(tian)，5月(yue)22日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至(zhi)6月(yue)9日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)4個(ge)點40個(ge)楊樹(shu)枝把累(lei)計(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)181頭(tou)(tou)(tou)， 6月(yue)7日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)為(wei)蛾(e)峰(feng)日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，10把楊樹(shu)枝把最(zui)高誘(you)蛾(e)30頭(tou)(tou)(tou)；北(bei)票市(shi)5月(yue)31日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至(zhi)6月(yue)9日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)黑光燈誘(you)蛾(e)120頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，糖醋誘(you)蛾(e)器(qi)累(lei)計(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)153頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。黑龍江雙(shuang)城高空燈累(lei)計(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)94頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，是2014-2016年的4倍多。
河北灤(luan)縣高空燈累(lei)計(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)346頭(tou)(tou)，5月31日(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)量達233頭(tou)(tou)，分別是上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)的6.4倍和(he)11倍，蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)峰日(ri)比(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)早8天(tian)；大名、正定(ding)測(ce)報(bao)燈累(lei)計(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)分別為1111頭(tou)(tou)、222頭(tou)(tou)，是上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期的6.4倍和(he)2.1倍。山西、天(tian)津、北京(jing)誘(you)蟲量偏低，其中，山西省(sheng)18個點測(ce)報(bao)燈累(lei)計(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)271頭(tou)(tou)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)50%，全省(sheng)各(ge)地燈下(xia)均(jun)未見明顯蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)峰，累(lei)計(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)量和(he)高峰日(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)量均(jun)低于前兩年(nian)(nian)，萬榮(rong)縣高空燈誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)50頭(tou)(tou)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期減(jian)少(shao)56.9%。天(tian)津寶坻(chi)、薊縣、寧河等單燈累(lei)計(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)不(bu)足10頭(tou)(tou)，接(jie)近(jin)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)，較(jiao)(jiao)近(jin)5年(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)值減(jian)少(shao)85%。北京(jing)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)累(lei)計(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)量為38.6頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)常年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期減(jian)少(shao)82.6%，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期減(jian)少(shao)27.2%。
三、東北地(di)區出現卵高峰(feng)，田間易(yi)見低齡幼蟲
東北地區(qu)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)下旬田(tian)間見(jian)卵(luan)或出現誘卵(luan)高(gao)(gao)峰，6月(yue)(yue)(yue)上(shang)旬多(duo)地見(jian)低齡(ling)幼(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)。內蒙古(gu)通遼(liao)市5月(yue)(yue)(yue)27日(ri)(ri)(ri)麥田(tian)調查10平(ping)方(fang)米有卵(luan)2塊(kuai)(kuai)，10個(ge)谷草(cao)把誘卵(luan)52塊(kuai)(kuai)；興安盟科(ke)右中旗6月(yue)(yue)(yue)8日(ri)(ri)(ri)和9日(ri)(ri)(ri)在玉米田(tian)見(jian)點片發生的低齡(ling)幼(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)，以(yi)(yi)2齡(ling)為(wei)主(zhu)，重發田(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量30多(duo)頭(tou)(tou)，被害(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)達(da)45%。遼(liao)寧朝陽市5月(yue)(yue)(yue)31日(ri)(ri)(ri)始麥田(tian)見(jian)卵(luan)塊(kuai)(kuai)，10個(ge)谷草(cao)把誘卵(luan)9塊(kuai)(kuai)，6月(yue)(yue)(yue)6日(ri)(ri)(ri)始見(jian)幼(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)，6月(yue)(yue)(yue)12日(ri)(ri)(ri)調查麥田(tian)5米壟(long)長幼(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)10頭(tou)(tou)；葫蘆島6月(yue)(yue)(yue)12日(ri)(ri)(ri)玉米田(tian)查見(jian)百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)幼(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)20-30頭(tou)(tou)，多(duo)為(wei)1-2齡(ling)，比上(shang)年(nian)早10天左右。吉林公(gong)主(zhu)嶺5月(yue)(yue)(yue)26日(ri)(ri)(ri)至6月(yue)(yue)(yue)1日(ri)(ri)(ri)草(cao)把誘卵(luan)164塊(kuai)(kuai)，數量為(wei)近(jin)(jin)年(nian)來同時期最高(gao)(gao)（2014年(nian)0塊(kuai)(kuai)，2015年(nian)113塊(kuai)(kuai)，2016年(nian)12塊(kuai)(kuai)），近(jin)(jin)日(ri)(ri)(ri)玉米田(tian)已見(jian)1-2齡(ling)幼(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)，百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量不(bu)足(zu)10頭(tou)(tou)；梨樹縣玉米、小(xiao)麥、谷子田(tian)均發現幼(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)，局(ju)部田(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量10頭(tou)(tou)以(yi)(yi)上(shang)，單株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)最高(gao)(gao)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)9頭(tou)(tou)，已對玉米幼(you)(you)苗造(zao)成一定危(wei)害(hai)。另外，山東煙(yan)臺6月(yue)(yue)(yue)9日(ri)(ri)(ri)調查平(ping)均每(mei)平(ping)方(fang)米有幼(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)1.4頭(tou)(tou)，1-2齡(ling)低齡(ling)幼(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)占(zhan)8成。
四、北方大部地(di)區天氣條件對(dui)粘(zhan)蟲發生有利
預計未來(lai)十天（6月12-21日），西(xi)北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)、華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)大部(bu)(bu)、東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)、黃(huang)淮北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)累積雨量(liang)有(you)5～15毫米(mi)，其(qi)中西(xi)北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)南部(bu)(bu)、華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)東(dong)(dong)(dong)南部(bu)(bu)、黃(huang)淮北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)、東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)南部(bu)(bu)的部(bu)(bu)分地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)有(you)20～40毫米(mi)。未來(lai)11-20天（6月22日-7月1日），西(xi)北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)南部(bu)(bu)、華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)、東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)等地(di)(di)累積雨量(liang)有(you)5～15毫米(mi)，部(bu)(bu)分地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)20～30毫米(mi)，北(bei)(bei)方(fang)天氣條件對二代粘蟲發生為(wei)害總體有(you)利(li)。
（病蟲害測報處）
