近日省(sheng)植(zhi)(zhi)檢植(zhi)(zhi)保(bao)站(zhan)會同省(sheng)植(zhi)(zhi)保(bao)學會，組織植(zhi)(zhi)保(bao)專家召開研討會，對(dui)2019年我省(sheng)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物(wu)主(zhu)要(yao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)草鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)害的發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨勢進行了分(fen)(fen)析會商。綜合分(fen)(fen)析主(zhu)要(yao)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)草鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)害越冬(dong)基數、秸稈禁燒(shao)離(li)田(tian)、氣(qi)候趨勢預測及種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)結構、栽培耕(geng)作(zuo)等(deng)(deng)因素，預計2019年我省(sheng)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物(wu)主(zhu)要(yao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)草鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)害總體為(wei)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度將重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)2018年。其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)流(liu)行風險進一步加(jia)大(da)，馬鈴(ling)薯晚(wan)疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、玉(yu)米(mi)大(da)斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)惡苗病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)紋(wen)枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)穗(sui)腐(fu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)(deng)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)呈上(shang)升趨勢；玉(yu)米(mi)螟偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，大(da)豆食心蟲(chong)(chong)在(zai)北部(bu)(bu)主(zhu)產區(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)二化(hua)螟在(zai)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)縣份中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，黏蟲(chong)(chong)在(zai)局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)地(di)塊將出現(xian)高密度集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)危害，草地(di)螟在(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)西部(bu)(bu)地(di)區(qu)存在(zai)局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)可能(neng)，玉(yu)米(mi)蚜蟲(chong)(chong)、雙(shuang)斑(ban)螢葉甲(jia)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)螟蛉、苜蓿夜蛾等(deng)(deng)次要(yao)害蟲(chong)(chong)局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)危害將加(jia)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)；農(nong)(nong)田(tian)草荒及藥(yao)害重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)常年；農(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)害偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。
一、主要農作物病害(hai)
稻瘟病(bing)：偏重(zhong)流(liu)行風(feng)險進一(yi)步加大(da)。主(zhu)要依據(ju)：一(yi)是水(shui)(shui)稻種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)和品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)狀況(kuang)(kuang)有利于(yu)(yu)稻瘟病(bing)發生。2019年全省(sheng)(sheng)水(shui)(shui)稻種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)仍(reng)將(jiang)穩定在(zai)(zai)5500萬畝以上，抗(kang)病(bing)性(xing)相對較(jiao)差(cha)的(de)優(you)質品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)單一(yi)化大(da)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)情況(kuang)(kuang)突(tu)出，同(tong)時(shi)部(bu)分(fen)主(zhu)裁(cai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)抗(kang)病(bing)性(xing)田間(jian)表現明(ming)顯(xian)下降，發病(bing)風(feng)險加大(da)。據(ju)去年在(zai)(zai)33個縣設立的(de)34個稻瘟病(bing)抗(kang)性(xing)監(jian)(jian)測圃監(jian)(jian)測，龍(long)粳31、綏粳18、龍(long)粳46、龍(long)粳29、龍(long)洋16、龍(long)慶稻3號(hao)等主(zhu)栽(zai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)多數發病(bing)；五優(you)稻4號(hao)雖然在(zai)(zai)五常(chang)未發病(bing)，但在(zai)(zai)方正、泰來、肇東均(jun)發病(bing)。2018年生產田發病(bing)監(jian)(jian)測，包(bao)括上述主(zhu)栽(zai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)在(zai)(zai)內(nei)，有49個品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)發生葉瘟、12個品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)發生穗頸(jing)瘟，較(jiao)上年增(zeng)加了10個，且以上主(zhu)栽(zai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)目前種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)占(zhan)全省(sheng)(sheng)水(shui)(shui)稻種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)的(de)50%以上，為稻瘟病(bing)大(da)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)流(liu)行提供了基本條(tiao)件。二是目前我(wo)省(sheng)(sheng)水(shui)(shui)田栽(zai)培狀況(kuang)(kuang)利于(yu)(yu)發病(bing)。據(ju)全省(sheng)(sheng)600個稻瘟病(bing)監(jian)(jian)測點調查(cha)，近兩年我(wo)省(sheng)(sheng)50%以上的(de)稻田植(zhi)株密度高(gao)于(yu)(yu)標準(zhun)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)密度上限，畝均(jun)施(shi)氮肥(fei)(fei)量高(gao)于(yu)(yu)標準(zhun)施(shi)肥(fei)(fei)量20%左右(you)，田間(jian)生長環境(jing)郁閉，抗(kang)病(bing)性(xing)下降，易于(yu)(yu)發病(bing)。三是氣象條(tiao)件比較(jiao)有利。據(ju)氣象部(bu)門預測，夏季降水(shui)(shui)正常(chang)略少，但分(fen)布不均(jun)，且有低溫(wen)時(shi)段。如果(guo)在(zai)(zai)7月中下旬遇連陰雨天和低溫(wen)時(shi)段，將(jiang)導致稻瘟病(bing)偏重(zhong)流(liu)行。
水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)其它(ta)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)：受(shou)浸種方式及病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)原菌抗(kang)藥性等因(yin)素影(ying)響，預計水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)惡苗(miao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)在部(bu)分縣份仍(reng)會有(you)一(yi)定程度發生(sheng)(sheng)，且呈現本田發病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)癥狀明顯特點。水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)在中(zhong)南部(bu)高產(chan)區將(jiang)進一(yi)步加重發生(sheng)(sheng)。稻(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發生(sheng)(sheng)范圍(wei)將(jiang)進一(yi)步擴大，部(bu)分縣份感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)種田將(jiang)偏重發生(sheng)(sheng)。水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)苗(miao)床立枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、青(qing)枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、綿腐(fu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)受(shou)春(chun)播期(qi)氣(qi)溫略低，氣(qi)溫波動較大影(ying)響，如不采取(qu)有(you)效預防(fang)措施，發生(sheng)(sheng)會較普遍。夏季雨(yu)水(shui)(shui)集中(zhong)，分布不均，將(jiang)加重部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區細菌性褐斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、鞘(qiao)腐(fu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、穗腐(fu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)發生(sheng)(sheng)。
玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)病(bing)害(hai)：近年(nian)來，受我(wo)省多數玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)品種抗(kang)病(bing)性較差(cha)，高密、高肥栽培方(fang)(fang)式及夏季降水集(ji)中(zhong)等(deng)因素影(ying)響，玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)病(bing)害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度整體(ti)呈上升趨勢。其中(zhong)，玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)大(da)斑病(bing)為我(wo)省玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)田最(zui)主(zhu)要(yao)的常發(fa)病(bing)害(hai)，預計(ji)2019年(nian)總體(ti)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局部將(jiang)(jiang)偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；莖基腐(fu)病(bing)、絲黑穗(sui)病(bing)、瘤黑粉(fen)病(bing)、穗(sui)腐(fu)病(bing)、線(xian)蟲矮化病(bing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)呈上升趨勢，局部地區將(jiang)(jiang)達到中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度；小斑病(bing)、灰斑病(bing)、北方(fang)(fang)炭疽病(bing)、普通(tong)銹病(bing)、褐(he)斑病(bing)、紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)、鞘腐(fu)病(bing)等(deng)次要(yao)病(bing)害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)范圍(wei)也(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)進一步擴大(da)。
大(da)(da)豆(dou)病(bing)害(hai)(hai)：近幾年(nian)隨著大(da)(da)豆(dou)種(zhong)植面積的增加(jia)，重(zhong)迎茬(cha)導致的大(da)(da)豆(dou)根部病(bing)害(hai)(hai)逐漸加(jia)重(zhong)。預計2019年(nian)大(da)(da)豆(dou)胞囊線蟲(chong)、大(da)(da)豆(dou)根腐病(bing)等根部病(bing)害(hai)(hai)將(jiang)(jiang)中等偏重(zhong)發生，發生分(fen)布不(bu)均。大(da)(da)豆(dou)菌(jun)核病(bing)在局部澇(lao)洼地(di)及重(zhong)迎茬(cha)地(di)塊將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)中等發生。大(da)(da)豆(dou)霜霉病(bing)、灰(hui)斑病(bing)、褐(he)斑病(bing)、細菌(jun)性斑點病(bing)等葉部病(bing)害(hai)(hai)將(jiang)(jiang)重(zhong)于常年(nian)。
馬(ma)(ma)(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)病(bing)害：馬(ma)(ma)(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)晚(wan)疫(yi)(yi)病(bing)是威脅(xie)我省馬(ma)(ma)(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)生產安全的最重(zhong)要病(bing)害，連年(nian)(nian)發(fa)生普(pu)遍(bian)，多(duo)(duo)數(shu)年(nian)(nian)份(fen)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生，田(tian)間(jian)菌源豐富；克新(xin)18、尤(you)金、中薯(shu)5、早大白、興(xing)佳2、費烏(wu)瑞它、大西洋、克新(xin)13等主栽品種田(tian)間(jian)抗(kang)病(bing)性表現多(duo)(duo)數(shu)較差，利于晚(wan)疫(yi)(yi)病(bing)發(fa)生流(liu)行。同時，我省馬(ma)(ma)(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)易感晚(wan)疫(yi)(yi)病(bing)的花(hua)蕾(lei)期也正值常年(nian)(nian)夏季降水集中期，預(yu)計2019年(nian)(nian)馬(ma)(ma)(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)晚(wan)疫(yi)(yi)病(bing)在(zai)齊(qi)齊(qi)哈爾(er)、綏化(hua)、黑(hei)河等馬(ma)(ma)(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)主產區將偏重(zhong)發(fa)生。早疫(yi)(yi)病(bing)、瘡(chuang)痂病(bing)、黑(hei)痣病(bing)、黑(hei)脛(jing)病(bing)、軟腐病(bing)等馬(ma)(ma)(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)次要病(bing)害發(fa)生將呈上升(sheng)趨勢(shi)，發(fa)生范(fan)圍也將擴大。
其它作物病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)：氣(qi)象預(yu)報我(wo)省春季降水量略(lve)多(duo)，春播期間(jian)氣(qi)溫略(lve)低(di)；夏(xia)季氣(qi)溫正(zheng)常(chang)略(lve)高，降水正(zheng)常(chang)略(lve)少(shao)。預(yu)計以角斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、霜(shuang)霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、灰霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、葉霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等為主的保護(hu)地蔬菜病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)偏(pian)(pian)重發(fa)生；以霜(shuang)霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、軟腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、炭疽病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、根腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等為主的露地蔬菜病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)中等發(fa)生。小(xiao)(xiao)麥根腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、散黑穗病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、腥黑穗病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、赤霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等小(xiao)(xiao)麥病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)生。向日葵菌核病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、霜(shuang)霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)，西甜瓜細(xi)菌性角斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、炭疽病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)及谷子谷瘟病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、胡麻斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)偏(pian)(pian)輕至(zhi)中等發(fa)生。
二、主要農作(zuo)物蟲害
玉(yu)米(mi)螟(ming)：去(qu)年(nian)(nian)秋季各地(di)扒稈調查，全省加(jia)權(quan)平(ping)均(jun)百稈活(huo)(huo)蟲數為74.7頭，分(fen)別低于(yu)上年(nian)(nian)與常年(nian)(nian)24.8%、37.8%。百稈活(huo)(huo)蟲超過防治(zhi)指(zhi)標(biao)（40頭）的(de)縣份(fen)占47.9%、超過百頭的(de)縣份(fen)占14.1%，分(fen)別低于(yu)上年(nian)(nian)3.3個和(he)9.1個百分(fen)點。其中，雙城、肇(zhao)源(yuan)、梅里斯、龍江、北林、賓縣、肇(zhao)東等重發縣份(fen)百稈活(huo)(huo)蟲分(fen)別為256、207、180、145、133、125、116頭，平(ping)均(jun)較(jiao)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)下(xia)降21.5%。但(dan)玉(yu)米(mi)螟(ming)越(yue)(yue)冬幼(you)蟲發育(yu)質量較(jiao)好，秸稈禁燒離田相對增加(jia)了蟲源(yuan)量，且玉(yu)米(mi)螟(ming)抗逆(ni)性和(he)繁殖力較(jiao)強，加(jia)之越(yue)(yue)冬寄主(zhu)廣泛。因此，2019年(nian)(nian)玉(yu)米(mi)螟(ming)發生(sheng)的(de)蟲源(yuan)基礎仍較(jiao)充(chong)分(fen)。預計今年(nian)(nian)我省玉(yu)米(mi)螟(ming)總體仍將達到偏重發生(sheng)，危(wei)害將重于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)，發生(sheng)程(cheng)度各地(di)呈(cheng)不(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡特點，主(zhu)要危(wei)害區(qu)為西南(nan)部(bu)二(er)代(dai)和(he)不(bu)(bu)完(wan)全二(er)代(dai)區(qu)。
黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)：我(wo)省(sheng)黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度主(zhu)要取決于由江(jiang)淮一(yi)代(dai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)區(qu)遷入(ru)的蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)總量。近(jin)幾(ji)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)江(jiang)淮一(yi)代(dai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)區(qu)小麥等黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)喜食作(zuo)物(wu)面(mian)積總體(ti)在遞增(zeng)，同(tong)時氣候條件相對有利，一(yi)代(dai)區(qu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)總量呈上(shang)升趨勢，增(zeng)大(da)了(le)我(wo)省(sheng)二代(dai)黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)風險(xian)。據全國病蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)監(jian)測網點去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)9月份監(jian)測，大(da)部分監(jian)測點三(san)代(dai)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)誘蛾(e)量同(tong)比增(zeng)加，總體(ti)基數偏高。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)省(sheng)玉米、水稻、小麥、谷糜(mi)等黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)適(shi)生(sheng)作(zuo)物(wu)種植面(mian)積占(zhan)比仍(reng)達60%以上(shang)，加之近(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)春(chun)夏氣候條件均有利于黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)遷入(ru)與發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)危(wei)害(hai)(hai)，近(jin)兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)區(qu)域擴大(da)、發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度加重。預計2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)省(sheng)二代(dai)黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)將中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，三(san)代(dai)黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)以中(zhong)南部地區(qu)為主(zhu)，局部地塊將出現高密度集中(zhong)危(wei)害(hai)(hai)。
草(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)：據全國病蟲監測網去年秋(qiu)季(ji)在河北(bei)、內(nei)蒙、寧夏(xia)等(deng)國內(nei)草(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)越(yue)(yue)冬(dong)區(qu)調(diao)查(cha)，總(zong)越(yue)(yue)冬(dong)面(mian)積比前3年均值高(gao)37%。2018年草(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)在內(nei)蒙東部(bu)暴發530萬(wan)畝；我(wo)(wo)省(sheng)龍江、泰來、肇州(zhou)、克山(shan)、齊齊哈爾市昂昂溪區(qu)等(deng)地(di)(di)蛾量(liang)也為(wei)(wei)2010年以來最(zui)高(gao)，荒地(di)(di)百步(bu)(bu)驚蛾最(zui)高(gao)達5000頭，種群(qun)恢復跡(ji)象明顯，預(yu)示草(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)可能(neng)進入(ru)新的發生為(wei)(wei)害周期。近年我(wo)(wo)省(sheng)持續加大種植結(jie)(jie)構調(diao)整，大豆及經濟作(zuo)物(wu)等(deng)草(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)喜(xi)食作(zuo)物(wu)面(mian)積大幅(fu)度增加，蒙古國東部(bu)、俄(e)羅(luo)斯遠東地(di)(di)區(qu)等(deng)我(wo)(wo)省(sheng)草(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)暴發主(zhu)要蟲源地(di)(di)也具有大范圍適(shi)生越(yue)(yue)冬(dong)生境(jing)。同(tong)時結(jie)(jie)合草(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)間歇(xie)性暴發規(gui)律分(fen)析(xi)，預(yu)計2019年我(wo)(wo)省(sheng)草(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)種群(qun)數(shu)量(liang)將(jiang)進一步(bu)(bu)上升，中西(xi)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)局部(bu)存(cun)在偏重發生可能(neng)，需密(mi)切(qie)監測蟲源遷入(ru)動(dong)態。
蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)蟲(chong)：亞洲飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)曾在(zai)我省(sheng)西部(bu)的(de)龍(long)江、肇(zhao)(zhao)州、肇(zhao)(zhao)源(yuan)等(deng)地的(de)濕(shi)地葦塘高(gao)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)又在(zai)與(yu)我省(sheng)肇(zhao)(zhao)源(yuan)縣相臨的(de)吉林省(sheng)農安縣高(gao)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)點片發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，因此(ci)我省(sheng)葦塘濕(shi)地較多的(de)西部(bu)縣份需(xu)(xu)對亞洲飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)保(bao)持高(gao)度(du)(du)(du)警惕。我省(sheng)土蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)種類以大墊尖翅蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)、寬翅曲背蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)、小車蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)、稻蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)、白邊雛(chu)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)等(deng)為主，2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)在(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)西部(bu)農牧交錯區(qu)蟲(chong)口密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)明顯增高(gao)；去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)秋季(ji)土蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)越冬卵量(liang)調查，平均(jun)0.9塊/平方米(mi)、13.9粒/塊，與(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)接近，低于常年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。預計2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)西部(bu)農牧區(qu)土蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)將中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，需(xu)(xu)注(zhu)意(yi)高(gao)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)聚集進入農田危害。
大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)食(shi)心(xin)蟲(chong)(chong)：去年秋季調(diao)查(cha)，全省平(ping)均蟲(chong)(chong)食(shi)率為(wei)3.3%，較上(shang)年、常年分別下降0.9、2.0個百分點，但齊齊哈爾、黑河等地多(duo)數(shu)(shu)大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)主產縣份(fen)(fen)蟲(chong)(chong)食(shi)率超過防治(zhi)指標（5%），預計2019年隨著大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)面積的(de)增加，大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)食(shi)心(xin)蟲(chong)(chong)整體為(wei)害(hai)程度將重于去年，北部主產區(qu)多(duo)數(shu)(shu)縣份(fen)(fen)將達到偏(pian)重發生。
水稻二化螟：2018年利(li)用(yong)性誘設(she)備監(jian)測，二化螟發生(sheng)(sheng)范圍已擴(kuo)大到佳木(mu)斯等地；秋季越冬(dong)蟲量調查，全省平均百(bai)稈活蟲2.5頭，較常年與上(shang)年略有上(shang)升；暖(nuan)冬(dong)氣象(xiang)條件及秸(jie)稈禁燒離田有利(li)于二化螟幼蟲越冬(dong)存(cun)活，預計2019年二化螟發生(sheng)(sheng)范圍進一步擴(kuo)大，哈爾(er)濱(bin)、綏(sui)化等主要發生(sheng)(sheng)區為偏輕發生(sheng)(sheng)，部分縣份將達到中等發生(sheng)(sheng)。
地下害(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)和苗(miao)(miao)期(qi)害(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)：2018年秋(qiu)季(ji)地下害(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)越冬基數調查，豆根蛇潛(qian)蠅(ying)、地老虎、蠐螬、金針蟲(chong)、螻蛄(gu)平均每平方米分別(bie)為(wei)1.2、0.6、0.5、0.4、0.4頭，均明顯高于上年與(yu)常年。春季(ji)氣溫正常，西(xi)部地區易(yi)出現旱象，利(li)于地下害(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)和苗(miao)(miao)期(qi)害(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)為(wei)害(hai)(hai)(hai)，預計地下害(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)將達到中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，個別(bie)地塊偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)；大豆薊(ji)馬、二條葉甲(jia)、蒙(meng)古灰象甲(jia)、粟莖跳甲(jia)、網目沙(sha)潛(qian)等大田作(zuo)物苗(miao)(miao)期(qi)害(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。
其(qi)它蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)：預計水稻(dao)潛(qian)(qian)葉(xie)蠅(ying)、水稻(dao)負泥(ni)蟲(chong)(chong)總體(ti)(ti)為(wei)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)，山區(qu)、半(ban)山區(qu)將偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)。大(da)豆蚜(ya)(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)在東南(nan)部(bu)淺山區(qu)越冬寄(ji)主較多(duo)的縣份、大(da)豆紅蜘蛛在西北部(bu)地區(qu)將達到中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)期較常年偏(pian)早。稻(dao)螟(ming)蛉、雙斑螢葉(xie)甲(jia)、玉米蚜(ya)(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)、豆稈黑潛(qian)(qian)蠅(ying)、苜蓿(xu)夜蛾、二十八星瓢蟲(chong)(chong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)呈上升趨勢，局部(bu)地塊危害(hai)將進一步加重。小菜蛾、菜青蟲(chong)(chong)、甘藍夜盜、蚜(ya)(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)、潛(qian)(qian)葉(xie)蠅(ying)、白粉虱、葉(xie)螨、薊馬、蘿卜蠅(ying)、苗期跳甲(jia)等(deng)蔬菜害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)總體(ti)(ti)將偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)。
三、草害(hai)及藥害(hai)
草害：去年秋冬季氣溫偏高，有利于雜草種子成熟與多年生雜草根莖越冬，雜草種子成熟度好于常年，草籽、地下根莖數量較多，同時受同類除草劑多(duo)年使用影響(xiang)，雜草抗性增加。氣象預(yu)報今春我省降水略多(duo)，但(dan)時(shi)空分布不均，西部地區易出現旱象。綜(zong)合分析，2019年農田草害將重于常(chang)年，但(dan)輕于去年。
藥害：由(you)于今年(nian)種(zhong)植(zhi)結構調整幅度較(jiao)大(da)，上茬(cha)玉(yu)米(mi)田使(shi)用(yong)莠去津、煙嘧磺(huang)隆，大(da)豆田使(shi)用(yong)氟磺(huang)胺(an)草(cao)(cao)(cao)醚、唑嘧磺(huang)草(cao)(cao)(cao)胺(an)、異噁草(cao)(cao)(cao)松等長(chang)殘留(liu)性除(chu)(chu)草(cao)(cao)(cao)劑(ji)引起的下茬(cha)作物(wu)藥害現象將(jiang)增加。受春播(bo)期低溫、降(jiang)水時空(kong)分布不(bu)均，防控抗性雜草(cao)(cao)(cao)超(chao)量使(shi)用(yong)除(chu)(chu)草(cao)(cao)(cao)劑(ji)，安全性較(jiao)差的藥劑(ji)使(shi)用(yong)方法不(bu)當，一些經濟(ji)作物(wu)超(chao)范圍使(shi)用(yong)除(chu)(chu)草(cao)(cao)(cao)劑(ji)等因素影(ying)響，今年(nian)農(nong)作物(wu)當茬(cha)藥害將(jiang)重于常年(nian)。
四、農(nong)田(tian)鼠害
2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)秋(qiu)(qiu)季53個縣份鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)情監測(ce)調(diao)查，全(quan)省平均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密度(du)（百(bai)莢捕獲(huo)率）為7.1%，略(lve)低于(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)與常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)；鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)密度(du)超過10%的縣份占30.2%，較(jiao)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增加5.2個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點。去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我省糧(liang)食收成較(jiao)好，農(nong)(nong)戶階(jie)段性儲糧(liang)現象普遍，且秋(qiu)(qiu)冬氣溫較(jiao)高，對害(hai)(hai)(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)越冬、繁(fan)殖非常(chang)有利。但(dan)我省去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)秋(qiu)(qiu)季開展了(le)大(da)面積統一滅鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)春季也將繼(ji)續實(shi)施“千(qian)萬畝(mu)農(nong)(nong)田(tian)統一滅鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)工程”，對控(kong)制(zhi)我省農(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)害(hai)(hai)(hai)將發(fa)(fa)揮重要作(zuo)用(yong)。綜合分(fen)(fen)析，2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開展統一滅鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)的農(nong)(nong)田(tian)，鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)害(hai)(hai)(hai)發(fa)(fa)生程度(du)將下降到防治指標以(yi)下，但(dan)其它多(duo)數未開展滅鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)的農(nong)(nong)田(tian)，鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)害(hai)(hai)(hai)仍將偏重發(fa)(fa)生，危害(hai)(hai)(hai)重于(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，重點發(fa)(fa)生區域為西部(bu)農(nong)(nong)草交錯(cuo)區、沿(yan)江流域及蔬(shu)菜和(he)經濟作(zuo)物主栽區。
