根據近年糧油作(zuo)(zuo)物主要(yao)(yao)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)情(qing)況、冬前病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)基數(shu)以及我省耕(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)制度和品(pin)種布局等(deng)情(qing)況，結合主要(yao)(yao)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)歷年發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)演替規(gui)律和省氣候中(zhong)心長(chang)期天氣趨勢預測，并參考(kao)2019年全(quan)(quan)國農(nong)作(zuo)(zuo)物重大(da)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)趨勢，經綜合分析認(ren)為，預計2019年我省糧油作(zuo)(zuo)物重大(da)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)總體呈偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)態勢，全(quan)(quan)省發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)約(yue)7000萬(wan)畝次(ci)，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)重于病(bing)害(hai)。其中(zhong)，小麥和油菜(cai)主要(yao)(yao)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)呈中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，小麥病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)約(yue)為150萬(wan)畝次(ci)，油菜(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)約(yue)為300萬(wan)畝次(ci)；水稻主要(yao)(yao)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)呈偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)約(yue)為6500萬(wan)畝次(ci)。
一、主要病蟲發生趨勢預測 1. 赤霉病：預計中等發生，局部偏重發生。 2. 麥類蚜蟲：預計中等發生。 3. 麥類灰飛虱：預計中等偏輕發生。 4. 油菜菌核病：預計中等發生。 5. 油菜霜霉病：預計中等發生，局部偏重發生。
6. 油菜蚜(ya)蟲：預(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。 7. 稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)(shi)：預(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)白背(bei)飛(fei)虱(shi)(shi)為中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；褐飛(fei)虱(shi)(shi)為中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；穗期灰(hui)飛(fei)虱(shi)(shi)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。 8. 稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉(xie)螟：預(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。 9. 水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)螟蟲：以二(er)(er)化螟為主，地(di)區(qu)(qu)間發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)差異大(da)(da)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)一代二(er)(er)化螟中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)大(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)余各代中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。 10. 紋枯病(bing)(bing)：預(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。 11. 稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病(bing)(bing)：預(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，如(ru)遇感(gan)(gan)病(bing)(bing)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育(yu)期氣(qi)候條件適宜有重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)的可能。 12. 稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)：預(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，如(ru)遇適宜天(tian)氣(qi)，穗瘟在(zai)山區(qu)(qu)、半(ban)山區(qu)(qu)及(ji)老(lao)病(bing)(bing)區(qu)(qu)感(gan)(gan)病(bing)(bing)品種上存在(zai)流行的可能。 13.水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)細菌性病(bing)(bing)害：水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)白葉(xie)枯病(bing)(bing)等細菌性病(bing)(bing)害逐步從沿海稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)向(xiang)金衢稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)擴展(zhan)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)范(fan)圍呈擴大(da)(da)趨勢，如(ru)臺風、暴雨多，會加重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度。
二、預測依據 1. 病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)基數(shu)(shu)。 全省二化(hua)螟(ming)(ming)平(ping)均冬前基數(shu)(shu)接(jie)近去年(nian)，高于(yu)(yu)(yu)常(chang)年(nian)，一代二化(hua)螟(ming)(ming)具(ju)備大發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)(de)冬前蟲(chong)源(yuan)(yuan)基數(shu)(shu)。同時，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)常(chang)年(nian)在我省局部(bu)地(di)區(qu)發(fa)生(sheng)較重(zhong)，菌源(yuan)(yuan)基數(shu)(shu)較高，一旦天(tian)氣(qi)條(tiao)件適宜，易在感(gan)病(bing)(bing)(bing)品種(zhong)上流行(xing)。紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)常(chang)年(nian)發(fa)生(sheng)嚴(yan)重(zhong)，田(tian)間累(lei)積(ji)(ji)菌源(yuan)(yuan)豐富。 2.栽培制度。近年(nian)來，我省大部(bu)分(fen)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)主要以(yi)單季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)種(zhong)植(zhi)為(wei)(wei)主，單季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)播期拉長(chang)，橋梁田(tian)增多(duo)，有利于(yu)(yu)(yu)“兩遷”害(hai)蟲(chong)、螟(ming)(ming)蟲(chong)等水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)害(hai)蟲(chong)輾轉為(wei)(wei)害(hai)；水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)品種(zhong)以(yi)粗(cu)稈大穗型為(wei)(wei)主，易形成適溫高濕(shi)的(de)(de)田(tian)間小氣(qi)候，后期植(zhi)株群體(ti)密，防(fang)治(zhi)難度大，有利于(yu)(yu)(yu)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)的(de)(de)發(fa)生(sheng)為(wei)(wei)害(hai)；主栽品種(zhong)抗(kang)病(bing)(bing)(bing)性參(can)差不齊，部(bu)分(fen)品種(zhong)抗(kang)性退化(hua)或(huo)喪失，加(jia)上優質稻(dao)(dao)(dao)種(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)連(lian)(lian)年(nian)增加(jia)，導致(zhi)抗(kang)病(bing)(bing)(bing)品種(zhong)種(zhong)植(zhi)占比低，有利于(yu)(yu)(yu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、白葉枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)等病(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)流行(xing)；部(bu)分(fen)地(di)區(qu)零(ling)星種(zhong)植(zhi)的(de)(de)早稻(dao)(dao)(dao)和連(lian)(lian)作(zuo)晚稻(dao)(dao)(dao)不但(dan)成為(wei)(wei)多(duo)種(zhong)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)的(de)(de)橋梁田(tian)，而且(qie)也(ye)是(shi)害(hai)蟲(chong)集(ji)中危害(hai)的(de)(de)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)田(tian)；各地(di)免耕、機收面(mian)積(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)擴大，冬閑(xian)田(tian)殘留稻(dao)(dao)(dao)樁高為(wei)(wei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)越冬提供了有利場所，有利于(yu)(yu)(yu)蟲(chong)源(yuan)(yuan)、菌源(yuan)(yuan)基數(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)積(ji)(ji)累(lei)和病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害(hai)的(de)(de)加(jia)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)。 3. 氣(qi)候條(tiao)件。 我省地(di)處長(chang)江中下(xia)游地(di)區(qu)，氣(qi)候條(tiao)件復雜多(duo)變。
據(ju)省(sheng)氣(qi)(qi)候中(zhong)心預(yu)測，2019年1-9月全省(sheng)平均氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)大部(bu)略(lve)偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)或偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)；總(zong)降水(shui)量(liang)浙北(bei)西南部(bu)、浙西南大部(bu)、東(dong)部(bu)沿海地區略(lve)偏(pian)多，其(qi)它地區接近常(chang)年或略(lve)偏(pian)少(shao)。其(qi)中(zhong)，春季氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)變幅(fu)大，可能(neng)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)春寒(han)或倒春寒(han)天氣(qi)(qi)；梅(mei)汛(xun)期降水(shui)略(lve)偏(pian)多或偏(pian)多；盛(sheng)夏高(gao)(gao)溫(wen)熱浪較(jiao)明顯，可能(neng)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)區域性干旱；影響和登(deng)陸浙江的熱帶氣(qi)(qi)旋接近常(chang)年或略(lve)偏(pian)多。整體氣(qi)(qi)候條件有利于病(bing)蟲(chong)發生流行。
