一、發生動(dong)態
截(jie)至目前，我省部分地區陸續監測到草地貪夜蛾成(cheng)蟲(chong)(chong)，并查見其幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)已開始危害鮮食玉米，目前見蟲(chong)(chong)面積(ji)110.4畝。
（一）成蟲性誘監測情況(kuang)
1月(yue)以來，全省有3個(ge)市州5個(ge)縣8個(ge)監(jian)測點(dian)陸(lu)續(xu)監(jian)測到草地貪夜蛾成蟲，如(ru)黔西南州望謨(mo)縣平洞街(jie)道(dao)岜賴村(cun)1月(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，為全省2020年成蟲首見(jian)；安(an)龍縣招堤街(jie)道(dao)海子農(nong)場2月(yue)26日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、3月(yue)1日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，龍山鎮(zhen)下(xia)壇(tan)村(cun)3月(yue)12日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)8頭(tou)(tou)(tou)（3個(ge)誘(you)捕器(qi)）；興義市馬嶺街(jie)道(dao)烏拉村(cun)3月(yue)3日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、12日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)（3個(ge)誘(you)捕器(qi)）。黔南州羅甸縣紅水河鎮(zhen)紅河村(cun)1月(yue)24日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，28日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，龍坪鎮(zhen)坪寨村(cun)2月(yue)28日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，3月(yue)1日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，2日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，逢(feng)亭鎮(zhen)上隆村(cun)3月(yue)5日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，10日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。貴陽市花(hua)溪區省農(nong)科院(yuan)試驗(yan)地3月(yue)9日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。
（二(er)）幼蟲發生動態
1月(yue)以(yi)來，我省黔西南州(zhou)(zhou)、黔南州(zhou)(zhou)和安順市(shi)等(deng)3個市(shi)州(zhou)(zhou)的望謨、羅(luo)甸(dian)、荔波、鎮寧等(deng)4個縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)查見(jian)草地(di)貪夜(ye)蛾(e)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)（或蛹），其(qi)中，3月(yue)10、11日(ri)分別在羅(luo)甸(dian)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、望謨縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)查見(jian)草地(di)貪夜(ye)蛾(e)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)開始危(wei)害(hai)(hai)(hai)鮮食玉米(mi)，見(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)面積110.4畝。全省幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)首見(jian)為(wei)(wei)望謨縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)1月(yue)7 日(ri)，危(wei)害(hai)(hai)(hai)再生玉米(mi)，比2019年(nian)的4月(yue)24日(ri)提早107天；3月(yue)11日(ri)查見(jian)開始危(wei)害(hai)(hai)(hai)鮮食玉米(mi)，較2019年(nian)查見(jian)危(wei)害(hai)(hai)(hai)鮮食玉米(mi)提早44天，見(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)面積100畝，多(duo)為(wei)(wei)1-2齡，平(ping)均(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口密度(du)28頭/百(bai)株，平(ping)均(jun)株受害(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)20%。羅(luo)甸(dian)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)首見(jian)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)為(wei)(wei)3月(yue)10日(ri)，比2019年(nian)的4月(yue)28日(ri)提早49天，見(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)面積10.4畝，多(duo)為(wei)(wei)1-3齡，平(ping)均(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口密度(du)14.98頭/百(bai)株，株受害(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)7.29%。
二、發生趨勢(shi)
通過冬春監測調查數據分析，草(cao)地(di)貪(tan)(tan)夜(ye)蛾(e)冬季在我(wo)省低熱(re)地(di)區(qu)可(ke)以(yi)定殖，但蟲(chong)口(kou)基數較低，就今年(nian)而(er)言，危害(hai)(hai)我(wo)省的(de)草(cao)地(di)貪(tan)(tan)夜(ye)蛾(e)其蟲(chong)源性質應該是以(yi)外遷入蟲(chong)源為主(zhu)。根(gen)據全國農作物(wu)病蟲(chong)害(hai)(hai)監(jian)測網(wang)調查(cha)監(jian)測和專(zhuan)家(jia)會商分析(xi)，結合我(wo)省冬春(chun)季節(jie)蟲(chong)情監(jian)測調查(cha)及2020年(nian)玉米、高粱、薏(yi)苡等作物(wu)種(zhong)植情況(kuang)，預測2020年(nian)我(wo)省草(cao)地(di)貪(tan)(tan)夜(ye)蛾(e)呈重發態勢(shi)，各地(di)區(qu)均有集中危害(hai)(hai)的(de)可(ke)能。
（一）蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)基數(shu)大(da)。一是草(cao)(cao)地(di)貪夜蛾(e)(e)已(yi)在我省(sheng)定(ding)殖，去年11-12月，我省(sheng)監測到草(cao)(cao)地(di)貪夜蛾(e)(e)在再生(sheng)(sheng)玉米和零(ling)星晚(wan)播玉米上(shang)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)危害，今年1-2月，在部(bu)分縣(xian)監測到幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)和蛹，如望謨(mo)縣(xian)分別于(yu)(yu)1月7 日、1月13日查見(jian)幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)和成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)，均為(wei)全(quan)省(sheng)2020年首(shou)見(jian)，去年12月至今年2月，我省(sheng)望謨(mo)、從江、印江、仁懷、花溪、羅(luo)甸(dian)、安龍、鎮寧、荔波等(deng)地(di)查見(jian)活(huo)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)（蛹）。二是我省(sheng)周邊蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)地(di)云(yun)(yun)南等(deng)省(sheng)區(qu)越冬蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量較大(da)，與云(yun)(yun)南毗鄰的(de)老撾草(cao)(cao)地(di)貪夜蛾(e)(e)已(yi)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)超過100萬畝(mu)，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)基數(shu)明(ming)顯大(da)于(yu)(yu)上(shang)年。境內外(wai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)的(de)雙(shuang)重疊加(jia)，勢必加(jia)重今年我省(sheng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程度(du)。
（二）我國境(jing)(jing)內外(wai)蟲源北遷(qian)時(shi)間(jian)提(ti)早(zao)。草地貪夜蛾(e)在(zai)我國定(ding)殖(zhi)以來，冬(dong)季(ji)在(zai)西南(nan)華(hua)南(nan)持(chi)(chi)續繁殖(zhi)，目前全國已見(jian)蟲100多個縣(xian)，發生期(qi)比(bi)上年(nian)提(ti)早(zao)2個月左右，隨著(zhu)春(chun)季(ji)氣溫持(chi)(chi)續回升，上述地區草地貪夜蛾(e)將(jiang)陸(lu)續羽化(hua)形成境(jing)(jing)內北遷(qian)蟲源。去年(nian)12月份以來，云南(nan)江城、海南(nan)儋州也持(chi)(chi)續監(jian)測到境(jing)(jing)外(wai)草地貪夜蛾(e)遷(qian)入，時(shi)間(jian)比(bi)2019年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)提(ti)早(zao)30-40天。預計2020年(nian)外(wai)地遷(qian)入我省的時(shi)間(jian)提(ti)早(zao)1個月左右。
（三）發生(sheng)面積擴大(da)。今年草地貪夜蛾發生(sheng)面臨省(sheng)內省(sheng)外蟲源雙重疊加(jia)，加(jia)之越冬基數大(da)、遷入時間(jian)提早，將對(dui)我省(sheng)玉米、高(gao)粱(liang)、薏苡(yi)等種(zhong)植(zhi)區域構成威脅，預計全(quan)年見蟲面積300萬畝(mu)左右(you)，同時，甘蔗、生(sheng)姜、花(hua)生(sheng)、牧草等作(zuo)物(wu)也存在(zai)受害風險。
