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據(ju)廣(guang)東省(sheng)植(zhi)(zhi)保(bao)總站農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)專(zhuan)家(jia)預(yu)(yu)測，明(ming)(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)廣(guang)東高(gao)(gao)(gao)效低毒農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量將(jiang)(jiang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)1500噸，由2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)的27000多(duo)噸增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)到28500多(duo)噸，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)約(yue)5％；高(gao)(gao)(gao)毒、高(gao)(gao)(gao)殘留農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)用量將(jiang)(jiang)大(da)幅(fu)下降(jiang)，由4500多(duo)噸減(jian)少(shao)(shao)到2600多(duo)噸，減(jian)少(shao)(shao)約(yue)42％。 專(zhuan)家(jia)稱(cheng)，這一(yi)預(yu)(yu)測主要(yao)基(ji)于三方面(mian)(mian)因素。其一(yi)，從近年(nian)(nian)(nian)廣(guang)東省(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)結構調整趨勢(shi)看(kan)，明(ming)(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)全省(sheng)糧食(shi)、水(shui)果、花生(sheng)(sheng)、花卉、茶(cha)葉種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積將(jiang)(jiang)保(bao)持基(ji)本穩定(ding)；蔬菜、糖蔗播種(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積會有(you)(you)(you)(you)所增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)，分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)2％和8％左右。其二，從農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物病蟲害發生(sheng)(sheng)、發展態(tai)勢(shi)看(kan)，因稻飛虱對(dui)吡(bi)蟲啉類(lei)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)產生(sheng)(sheng)抗(kang)性，此類(lei)藥(yao)劑(ji)(ji)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)繼(ji)續(xu)下降(jiang)，而(er)用于防(fang)治稻飛虱的噻嗪(qin)酮(撲虱靈、稻虱凈)、敵敵畏、異丙威(葉蟬散)等(deng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)明(ming)(ming)顯增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)。其三，因甲胺磷等(deng)5種(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)毒有(you)(you)(you)(you)機(ji)磷農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)面(mian)(mian)臨禁用，在農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)品種(zhong)結構方面(mian)(mian)，不(bu)(bu)合理現象(xiang)將(jiang)(jiang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)較大(da)改(gai)善。綜合以上(shang)(shang)因素預(yu)(yu)測，2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)廣(guang)東農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)總量與(yu)2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)相比將(jiang)(jiang)穩中有(you)(you)(you)(you)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)。其中，殺螨劑(ji)(ji)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)保(bao)持增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)勢(shi)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)約(yue)8.8％；除草劑(ji)(ji)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)繼(ji)續(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)約(yue)6.9％；植(zhi)(zhi)物生(sheng)(sheng)長調節劑(ji)(ji)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)略有(you)(you)(you)(you)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)約(yue)1.5％；殺蟲劑(ji)(ji)、殺菌劑(ji)(ji)、殺鼠劑(ji)(ji)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)基(ji)本持平(ping)。大(da)部分生(sheng)(sheng)物農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)由于防(fang)效比不(bu)(bu)上(shang)(shang)化學農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥(yao)，且成本高(gao)(gao)(gao)，加(jia)(jia)上(shang)(shang)推廣(guang)力度不(bu)(bu)夠等(deng)原因，需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長不(bu)(bu)明(ming)(ming)顯。

作者：余威