今年，草地螟越冬代(dai)成蟲發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)始見早(zao)、蛾(e)量(liang)高、峰次(ci)多、時間長、面(mian)積大、蟲源交流(liu)頻繁，當前內(nei)蒙(meng)古、黑龍(long)江、吉林、遼寧、河(he)北、陜西、北京、新疆(jiang)等8省（區、市(shi)）成蟲發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積已達1.96億畝(mu)。近(jin)期田(tian)間已見一代(dai)幼蟲危害，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積1131萬(wan)畝(mu)，東北、華北、西北等地呈重發(fa)(fa)態勢。
一、越冬代成蟲(chong)盛發，量大面(mian)廣，蟲(chong)源交流(liu)頻繁
近期，華(hua)北(bei)、東北(bei)等(deng)(deng)(deng)主(zhu)要蟲(chong)源地(di)(di)(di)越冬代成蟲(chong)仍處于羽化盛(sheng)期，大(da)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域蟲(chong)源交(jiao)流(liu)明(ming)顯，始見較早(zao)的(de)內(nei)蒙古(gu)西(xi)部、山(shan)西(xi)北(bei)部、河(he)北(bei)張(zhang)承(cheng)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)等(deng)(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)(di)以(yi)遷(qian)(qian)出(chu)為(wei)主(zhu)，內(nei)蒙古(gu)中(zhong)東部、黑龍(long)江(jiang)(jiang)、吉林(lin)(lin)、遼(liao)寧等(deng)(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)(di)本地(di)(di)(di)蟲(chong)源和遷(qian)(qian)入(ru)蟲(chong)源混合發(fa)生(sheng)，各地(di)(di)(di)表(biao)現燈下、田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)間蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)峰(feng)交(jiao)替出(chu)現，且雌蛾(e)(e)卵巢(chao)發(fa)育以(yi)高(gao)(gao)(gao)級別(bie)為(wei)主(zhu)。內(nei)蒙古(gu)成蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積1.03億畝，全區(qu)(qu)(qu)12個(ge)(ge)盟市82個(ge)(ge)旗縣普(pu)遍見蛾(e)(e)。除阿拉善、烏(wu)海(hai)、巴(ba)彥(yan)淖爾西(xi)部3盟市蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)較低外，其余中(zhong)東部地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)百(bai)(bai)步(bu)(bu)(bu)驚(jing)(jing)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)1000-3000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，蜜源植物多、濕度(du)大(da)的(de)地(di)(di)(di)塊(kuai)達(da)3000-5000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，局部萬(wan)(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)以(yi)上(shang)；且興安盟、通(tong)遼(liao)、赤(chi)峰(feng)、錫林(lin)(lin)郭(guo)勒等(deng)(deng)(deng)中(zhong)東部地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)遷(qian)(qian)入(ru)峰(feng)明(ming)顯，農(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)百(bai)(bai)步(bu)(bu)(bu)驚(jing)(jing)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)1000-5000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，林(lin)(lin)地(di)(di)(di)、荒地(di)(di)(di)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)幾(ji)萬(wan)(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。黑龍(long)江(jiang)(jiang)成蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積6019萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝，其中(zhong)百(bai)(bai)步(bu)(bu)(bu)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)達(da)千頭(tou)(tou)(tou)以(yi)上(shang)為(wei)1640萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝；中(zhong)西(xi)部地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)于6月3-5日及(ji)12-13日出(chu)現境外蟲(chong)源遷(qian)(qian)入(ru)高(gao)(gao)(gao)峰(feng)，與前期本地(di)(di)(di)蟲(chong)源疊(die)加(jia)，形(xing)成高(gao)(gao)(gao)密(mi)度(du)聚(ju)集(ji)區(qu)(qu)(qu)，拜(bai)泉(quan)、泰來、北(bei)安、青崗等(deng)(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)(di)百(bai)(bai)步(bu)(bu)(bu)驚(jing)(jing)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)達(da)1-3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，訥河(he)、杜蒙、綏綾等(deng)(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)(di)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)10萬(wan)(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)以(yi)上(shang)。吉林(lin)(lin)通(tong)榆(yu)、長嶺等(deng)(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)(di)單燈累計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)7.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、2.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，洮北(bei)、鎮賚等(deng)(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)(di)為(wei)3500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，西(xi)北(bei)部其余地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)為(wei)1000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)以(yi)下；田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)間百(bai)(bai)步(bu)(bu)(bu)驚(jing)(jing)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)，農(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)一般為(wei)100-200頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，草(cao)場(chang)、林(lin)(lin)地(di)(di)(di)為(wei)1000-2000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，最高(gao)(gao)(gao)可(ke)達(da)2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。遼(liao)寧阜新(xin)(xin)市單燈累計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)1941頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，苜蓿地(di)(di)(di)百(bai)(bai)步(bu)(bu)(bu)驚(jing)(jing)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)最高(gao)(gao)(gao)為(wei)350-400頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。河(he)北(bei)張(zhang)承(cheng)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、山(shan)西(xi)北(bei)部蟲(chong)源大(da)量(liang)(liang)外遷(qian)(qian)，表(biao)現為(wei)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)間百(bai)(bai)步(bu)(bu)(bu)驚(jing)(jing)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)持續下降，一般為(wei)百(bai)(bai)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)以(yi)下，最高(gao)(gao)(gao)1000-3000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。北(bei)京、陜西(xi)榆(yu)林(lin)(lin)燈下蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)明(ming)顯減少，田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)間百(bai)(bai)步(bu)(bu)(bu)驚(jing)(jing)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)20頭(tou)(tou)(tou)以(yi)下。新(xin)(xin)疆和田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)當(dang)地(di)(di)(di)蟲(chong)源于5月上(shang)旬至(zhi)6月上(shang)旬陸續羽化，于田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)縣目前百(bai)(bai)步(bu)(bu)(bu)驚(jing)(jing)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)一般為(wei)1000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，最高(gao)(gao)(gao)可(ke)達(da)萬(wan)(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。
二(er)、大(da)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)處于一代卵孵化高峰期(qi)和(he)低齡幼(you)蟲期(qi)，但蟲量尚低
目前(qian)，華北(bei)、東北(bei)和西北(bei)地區田(tian)間普遍見卵(luan)，其中黑(hei)龍江(jiang)西部(bu)和東北(bei)部(bu)、內(nei)(nei)蒙古中西部(bu)和東南部(bu)、山西北(bei)部(bu)、河北(bei)豐寧、吉林和遼(liao)寧西部(bu)、新疆和田(tian)、陜西榆林等(deng)地已出現一(yi)(yi)代低齡幼(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)危(wei)害。黑(hei)龍江(jiang)齊齊哈爾、大(da)(da)慶、綏(sui)化、黑(hei)河、大(da)(da)興安(an)(an)嶺及三江(jiang)平(ping)原(yuan)等(deng)地幼(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)386萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)度農(nong)(nong)田(tian)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)為30頭(tou)(tou)/m2，荒地50-70頭(tou)(tou)/m2。山西忻州、大(da)(da)同(tong)等(deng)地幼(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)270萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，其中農(nong)(nong)田(tian)、草場和林地發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)分(fen)別(bie)為65萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)、145萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)和60萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)度一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)為3-5頭(tou)(tou)/m2，最高(gao)可(ke)達(da)40頭(tou)(tou)/m2，農(nong)(nong)田(tian)經防治后(hou)密(mi)度下降至(zhi)1-3頭(tou)(tou)/m2。內(nei)(nei)蒙古鄂爾多(duo)斯、呼和浩特、包(bao)頭(tou)(tou)、巴彥淖爾、興安(an)(an)盟、通遼(liao)等(deng)地幼(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)155萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)度一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)為20-30頭(tou)(tou)/m2、突泉高(gao)達(da)80-100頭(tou)(tou)/m2；興安(an)(an)盟有卵(luan)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)400萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，平(ping)均(jun)每平(ping)方米卵(luan)量27粒，突泉高(gao)達(da)60-120粒。吉林白(bai)城(cheng)、松原(yuan)、長春、四平(ping)等(deng)地幼(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)194萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，農(nong)(nong)田(tian)蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)度一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)為3-5頭(tou)(tou)/m2，農(nong)(nong)安(an)(an)、鎮賚(lai)、扶余(yu)等(deng)地分(fen)別(bie)高(gao)達(da)40頭(tou)(tou)/m2、30頭(tou)(tou)/m2和15頭(tou)(tou)/m2。遼(liao)寧、河北(bei)、新疆和陜西發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)分(fen)別(bie)為80萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)、35萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)、7.5萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)和4萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，農(nong)(nong)田(tian)蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)度一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)為2-10頭(tou)(tou)/m2。
三、一代幼(you)蟲未來發生形(xing)勢嚴峻
今年北方大部(bu)植被返青早、長勢(shi)正常偏(pian)好(hao)，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態質量(liang)(liang)與去(qu)(qu)年同期相當(dang)，其(qi)中新(xin)疆(jiang)、內蒙古生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態質量(liang)(liang)處(chu)(chu)于正常及偏(pian)好(hao)的(de)面積(ji)比去(qu)(qu)年同期增加了2％～11％，草地(di)螟主要(yao)遷入區寄主植物長勢(shi)良好(hao)、蜜(mi)源豐富，有利于成(cheng)蟲補充營養(yang)。東(dong)北、華北地(di)區大豆、玉米、馬(ma)鈴薯(shu)、甜菜等春(chun)播作物種植面積(ji)大，為草地(di)螟幼蟲提供了充足的(de)食料；且農(nong)作物正處(chu)(chu)于苗期，耐害(hai)性(xing)差(cha)，一旦發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)危害(hai)，將導致毀種絕收等嚴重(zhong)后果。
據國(guo)家氣(qi)候(hou)中(zhong)心預測，6月份，東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、西北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)等(deng)草地(di)螟主發區氣(qi)溫偏(pian)(pian)高(gao)，內蒙古(gu)(gu)中(zhong)部(bu)、吉林東部(bu)、遼寧、河北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)東部(bu)、山西西部(bu)、陜西北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)等(deng)地(di)降(jiang)水(shui)偏(pian)(pian)多(duo)，有(you)利于(yu)草地(di)螟發生為害，但(dan)內蒙古(gu)(gu)東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)、山西北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)有(you)一定(ding)旱象，對草地(di)螟發生為害有(you)一定(ding)抑制作(zuo)用。未來十天，華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)地(di)區北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)、東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)多(duo)陣雨或雷陣雨天氣(qi)，對成蟲(chong)產卵及幼蟲(chong)孵化有(you)利。
由于今年(nian)草地(di)螟(ming)越(yue)冬成蟲(chong)量異常偏(pian)高，加之近(jin)期黑(hei)龍江(jiang)、內蒙古(gu)等(deng)(deng)地(di)有(you)明(ming)顯的境外蟲(chong)源遷入(ru)現象，結合(he)寄(ji)主營養和天氣條件等(deng)(deng)因(yin)素，預計今年(nian)一(yi)代(dai)幼蟲(chong)在農田及其周(zhou)邊(bian)發生(sheng)(sheng)面積可達1億(yi)畝(mu)以上，總體(ti)發生(sheng)(sheng)為害程度重(zhong)于大發生(sheng)(sheng)的2004年(nian)。其中(zhong)，黑(hei)龍江(jiang)中(zhong)西部(bu)(bu)(bu)、內蒙古(gu)中(zhong)東部(bu)(bu)(bu)大發生(sheng)(sheng)，黑(hei)龍江(jiang)東部(bu)(bu)(bu)、內蒙古(gu)西部(bu)(bu)(bu)、河(he)北(bei)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、山西北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、吉林和遼寧西部(bu)(bu)(bu)、新疆和田局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發生(sheng)(sheng)，陜西、北(bei)京等(deng)(deng)蟲(chong)源地(di)周(zhou)邊(bian)部(bu)(bu)(bu)分地(di)區中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發生(sheng)(sheng)。6月下旬至(zhi)7月上旬為一(yi)代(dai)幼蟲(chong)發生(sheng)(sheng)盛期。
（全國(guo)農業(ye)技術推(tui)廣服務(wu)中病蟲害(hai)測報處）
