根據(ju)浙江省(sheng)當前油(you)菜菌核(he)病和蚜蟲的發生現(xian)狀，結合油(you)菜長勢和未來天氣(qi)預(yu)(yu)測預(yu)(yu)報，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)今年(nian)油(you)菜菌核(he)病為中等(deng)偏重的程(cheng)(cheng)度；蚜蟲為中等(deng)程(cheng)(cheng)度，主要依據(ju)：
1.當前田間病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲發生(sheng)情(qing)況：據(ju)(ju)(ju)我(wo)省油菜(cai)主(zhu)要種植區病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲測報站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)近期調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)結果，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)油菜(cai)菌核病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)初見于2月(yue)(yue)末至(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)上旬前期，比(bi)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)推遲3-5天，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)情(qing)狀況輕于去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和往年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)。據(ju)(ju)(ju)桐廬站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)3月(yue)(yue)1日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，油菜(cai)菌核病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)發病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1.33 %(幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0-4%)，比(bi)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期低(di)。建德站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)3月(yue)(yue)2日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)發病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)2.1%，葉發病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)0.4%，雖低(di)于去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和常年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，但(dan)多為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)葉柄和莖基(ji)部發病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)，對油菜(cai)產量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)影響較(jiao)(jiao)大。據(ju)(ju)(ju)淳安站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)發病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)7.5%（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0-20%），重(zhong)于前2年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期。松陽站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)2月(yue)(yue)25日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)發病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2.3% (幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0-6%)，與去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期接近，較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的1.85 %（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0-3%）稍微偏高。我(wo)省各(ge)地油菜(cai)蚜(ya)(ya)蟲發生(sheng)因(yin)區域性(xing)差異較(jiao)(jiao)大，與往年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相近。嵊州市站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)2月(yue)(yue)26日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1.3%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2.6只(zhi)；金華市站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)2月(yue)(yue)28日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)7.20%（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)4.0-12.0%）、百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)9.6只(zhi)（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)4.0-16.0只(zhi)）；桐廬縣站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)3月(yue)(yue)1日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)6%（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1-10%），百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)20只(zhi)（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)4-46只(zhi)）；慈溪市站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)8%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)36只(zhi)；蓮都(dou)區站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)2-13%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)37-276只(zhi)，低(di)于去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)；據(ju)(ju)(ju)紹(shao)興縣站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)顯示：平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2.48%（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0-5.41%），百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)4只(zhi)（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0-10只(zhi)）；據(ju)(ju)(ju)嘉興市站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)26.0%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)217只(zhi)（去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)3月(yue)(yue)7日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)18%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)228只(zhi)）；據(ju)(ju)(ju)建德市站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)80%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2322只(zhi)（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度390-5160只(zhi)），蟲量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)高于去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和常年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)；淳安縣站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)有蚜(ya)(ya)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)68.3%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蚜(ya)(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1058只(zhi)（幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)度為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)30-1920只(zhi)），田間蟲口密度明顯高于前2年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期。
2.當(dang)(dang)前油菜長勢(shi) 情況：受低溫(wen)天氣影響，當(dang)(dang)前我省各(ge)地油菜生育(yu)期(qi)較(jiao)常年推(tui)遲一周左右(you)，且長勢(shi)較(jiao)差，抗(kang)病蟲(chong)能(neng)力弱(ruo)。目前進入現蕾-抽苔期(qi)，即將進入油菜菌核病的感病生育(yu)期(qi)。
3.氣(qi)(qi)候條件有(you)利 3月我省大部降水略偏少，上旬偏少，中旬正常或略偏少，下旬正常或略偏多。氣(qi)(qi)溫接近常年略偏低，冷(leng)空氣(qi)(qi)勢(shi)力總(zong)體(ti)偏弱(ruo)，暖濕(shi)氣(qi)(qi)流(liu)逐漸(jian)活(huo)躍，冷(leng)暖變化幅(fu)度較大。
油菜菌核病是一種典型的氣候性病害，我省主要油菜種植區3月將進入花期，是油菜菌核病感病的關鍵時期，如遇連續陰雨天氣將可能造成菌核病的流行。因此，各地要密切關注天氣變化，及時發布預報，指導防治。鑒于未來天氣的不確定性，各地宜在油菜初花期先進行一次菌核病預防工作，對于田間蚜蟲密度較高的田塊進行兼治。
(浙江省植保)
