一月底，隨著春節的臨近，國內化肥市場逐漸平淡下來，原料市場價格波動的頻率不斷減低，且幅度相對較小。鉀肥市場呈現了兩極分化的走勢，氯化鉀堅挺且有繼續上行之勢，而硫酸鉀弱勢暫穩，唯(wei)恐價(jia)格(ge)或將下行，但綜(zong)合而言，春節(jie)前價(jia)格(ge)繼續大幅波動的可能性較小。
新的一(yi)年來(lai)到，不可厚非的鉀肥(fei)大(da)(da)合同(tong)又(you)被人提及(ji)，加之(zhi)2017年國際國內(nei)鉀肥(fei)價格均呈現了緩(huan)慢上行之(zhi)勢，今(jin)天(tian)我們就來(lai)論一(yi)論2018年的大(da)(da)合同(tong)會(hui)將(jiang)如何(he)。
國(guo)(guo)內(nei)鉀肥(fei)(fei)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)人士對(dui)于2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)有(you)諸多推(tui)測，隆眾資訊(xun)分析，從(cong)東南亞以(yi)及巴西市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)而(er)言，預(yu)(yu)計2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)仍將有(you)所上(shang)行，幅(fu)(fu)度(du)或將在10美元(yuan)(yuan)/噸左(zuo)右。但從(cong)簽訂時(shi)(shi)間來看，大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)并(bing)不像以(yi)往在春節過后就談(tan)判簽訂，近兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)簽訂較為困難，多從(cong)春節后開始談(tan)判，到年(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)旬才(cai)最終(zhong)簽訂下(xia)來，因(yin)(yin)此(ci)即使對(dui)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)有(you)較高(gao)的預(yu)(yu)期，但預(yu)(yu)計2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的簽訂時(shi)(shi)間并(bing)不會(hui)很(hen)早，則(ze)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)的影響(xiang)因(yin)(yin)素仍有(you)變動的可(ke)能性。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)最終(zhong)簽訂如何，仍需(xu)密切關注國(guo)(guo)際(ji)鉀肥(fei)(fei)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)的走勢(shi)，以(yi)及國(guo)(guo)際(ji)供應(ying)商(shang)貨(huo)源的供應(ying)情況。根據隆眾資訊(xun)統計，從(cong)近五年(nian)(nian)(nian)的國(guo)(guo)際(ji)大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)來看，全球鉀肥(fei)(fei)供應(ying)過剩的局面始終(zhong)存在，大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)從(cong)12年(nian)(nian)(nian)開始持(chi)續(xu)下(xia)滑，截(jie)止到16年(nian)(nian)(nian)，到達相(xiang)對(dui)而(er)言的低(di)點。但隨著17年(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)的不斷回(hui)升，大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)亦出現上(shang)行之(zhi)勢(shi)。2017-2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)鉀肥(fei)(fei)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)回(hui)暖跡象更(geng)加明顯，從(cong)東南亞市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)可(ke)以(yi)看出，目前(qian)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)東南亞到岸(an)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)比去年(nian)(nian)(nian)大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)簽訂時(shi)(shi)高(gao)低(di)端均上(shang)行10美元(yuan)(yuan)/噸的幅(fu)(fu)度(du)。而(er)巴西市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)的價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)則(ze)上(shang)行幅(fu)(fu)度(du)較大(da)(da)(da)(da)，高(gao)低(di)端對(dui)比去年(nian)(nian)(nian)大(da)(da)(da)(da)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)時(shi)(shi)大(da)(da)(da)(da)幅(fu)(fu)上(shang)行25-30美元(yuan)(yuan)/噸，且仍有(you)繼續(xu)拉(la)漲之(zhi)勢(shi)。
