從前8個(ge)月主要指標看,經(jing)濟運行已(yi)經(jing)按照(zhao)宏觀(guan)調(diao)控的(de)預期目標進行了相應調(diao)整,正(zheng)(zheng)處于經(jing)濟增長(chang)周期的(de)平穩增長(chang)區域,出現大幅波動的(de)可能性(xing)很(hen)小。但正(zheng)(zheng)如(ru)問題(ti)和(he)解決問題(ti)的(de)辦法會(hui)同時存在(zai)一樣,新問題(ti)也將和(he)解決新問題(ti)的(de)辦法同時產生。宏觀(guan)調(diao)控中的(de)新問題(ti)往(wang)往(wang)來自(zi)宏觀(guan)調(diao)控本(ben)身(shen)。下(xia)面(mian)(mian)兩(liang)個(ge)新問題(ti)已(yi)經(jing)等在(zai)下(xia)一階段的(de)宏觀(guan)調(diao)控面(mian)(mian)前。
控制投資增(zeng)長與部(bu)分行業產能過(guo)剩(sheng)形成兩難
控制投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)依然(ran)是當(dang)前和今后一(yi)段時間宏(hong)觀調控的重(zhong)要(yao)任務。前一(yi)階段的宏(hong)觀調控使投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)平穩回落,并有(you)趨穩之勢,但從投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)的內在動力上看(kan),投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)主導型增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)模(mo)式并未根本改(gai)變。各地加(jia)大投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)、依靠投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)拉動經濟(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)的沖動依然(ran)強烈。前8個月,全(quan)國新開工項目計劃總投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)28.4%,增(zeng)幅(fu)同比(bi)提(ti)高(gao)1.5%。新開工項目11.4萬個,同比(bi)增(zeng)加(jia)21.1%,增(zeng)幅(fu)提(ti)高(gao)13.7%。明年是“十(shi)一(yi)五”規劃的開頭(tou)年,一(yi)些政府規劃的項目將陸續進入立項、上馬(ma)、在建過程(cheng),控制投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)規模(mo)和投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)速度的難度加(jia)大。
資(zi)金(jin)充足成為(wei)投(tou)資(zi)反彈(dan)的(de)(de)(de)有(you)(you)利(li)條件。8月(yue)末,金(jin)融機構人民(min)幣各項存(cun)款余額(e)同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)18.3%,增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)比(bi)上(shang)月(yue)末高0.7%。人民(min)幣各項存(cun)款增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)3.18萬億(yi)元(yuan),同比(bi)多(duo)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)7395億(yi)元(yuan)。從存(cun)款期限上(shang)看,定期存(cun)款的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)重有(you)(you)所增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)。貸款方面,前8個月(yue)中,大(da)(da)多(duo)數月(yue)份增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)都在(zai)13.5%以上(shang),保(bao)持(chi)了平穩增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)態勢。銀(yin)行(xing)存(cun)貸差(cha)有(you)(you)不斷擴(kuo)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)趨(qu)勢,存(cun)款定期化趨(qu)勢給投(tou)資(zi)提供(gong)了大(da)(da)量的(de)(de)(de)潛在(zai)資(zi)金(jin)。在(zai)保(bao)持(chi)宏(hong)觀調(diao)控政策連續性和穩定性的(de)(de)(de)前提下(xia),巨大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)沖動有(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)表現(xian)為(wei)投(tou)資(zi)壓力,有(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)表現(xian)為(wei)在(zai)建規模偏大(da)(da)、新開工(gong)項目增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)多(duo)和行(xing)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)盲目無序(xu)建設,若配合有(you)(you)利(li)的(de)(de)(de)外部(bu)條件,極容(rong)易造成投(tou)資(zi)反彈(dan)甚(shen)至又一輪的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)局部(bu)過熱。因此(ci),合理(li)把握(wo)現(xian)有(you)(you)調(diao)控政策力度(du),適度(du)控制投(tou)資(zi)規模擴(kuo)張和投(tou)資(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速(su)(su)度(du),使之與經濟增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)趨(qu)緩(huan)相協調(diao),仍是經濟管理(li)工(gong)作的(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)內容(rong)。
部分能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、原材料行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)無序(xu)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)逐步(bu)積聚的(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)大(da)量(liang)釋(shi)放,形(xing)成巨(ju)大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)新增(zeng)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)力。隨著固定資(zi)產(chan)(chan)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)增(zeng)幅回落和(he)相關出口政策調整,一些行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)供(gong)(gong)大(da)于求的(de)(de)(de)(de)矛盾(dun)有(you)所加(jia)劇,出現(xian)了(le)“量(liang)增(zeng)價(jia)(jia)跌(die)利潤減(jian)”現(xian)象。前(qian)8個月,鋼材產(chan)(chan)量(liang)同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)26.2%,增(zeng)幅同比(bi)加(jia)快(kuai)3.6%。而鋼材價(jia)(jia)格自第二季度(du)以來逐步(bu)走低,前(qian)7個月全行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)利潤增(zeng)幅同比(bi)回落44.6%。前(qian)8個月,水(shui)泥、平板玻璃產(chan)(chan)量(liang)同比(bi)分別增(zeng)長(chang)9.8%和(he)12%,受(shou)價(jia)(jia)格持續(xu)下(xia)滑影(ying)響(xiang),行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)利潤同比(bi)分別下(xia)降(jiang)71.6%和(he)32.7%。電解鋁行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)因(yin)原材料氧化鋁價(jia)(jia)格攀升和(he)電力成本增(zeng)加(jia),125家生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中有(you)39家停產(chan)(chan),55家凈虧(kui)損,生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)經(jing)營困難問(wen)題更為突出。此外,煤炭和(he)電力前(qian)一時期(qi)供(gong)(gong)求矛盾(dun)突出,行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)持續(xu)高速增(zeng)長(chang),形(xing)成的(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)將陸續(xu)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)。從歷(li)史(shi)經(jing)驗看,能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)緊(jin)(jin)張(zhang)時期(qi)進行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)往往容易形(xing)成能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)供(gong)(gong)給的(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)度(du)擴張(zhang),導致能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)緊(jin)(jin)張(zhang)和(he)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)過(guo)剩交織出現(xian)。當前(qian),部分能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)無序(xu)建設,在治理能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)緊(jin)(jin)張(zhang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)同時,也隱含了(le)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)過(guo)剩的(de)(de)(de)(de)風險。
控制(zhi)投資(zi)規模和(he)增(zeng)長速(su)度會(hui)(hui)降低對社會(hui)(hui)產品的消(xiao)化能(neng)力(li),將加劇部分(fen)行業產能(neng)過剩狀(zhuang)況。因此,明(ming)年宏觀調控的難題(ti)就是(shi)要把握(wo)好(hao)控制(zhi)投資(zi)的力(li)度,使投資(zi)既能(neng)支(zhi)撐(cheng)經濟(ji)平穩高速(su)增(zeng)長,又盡可能(neng)消(xiao)化現有(you)產能(neng)。
農民(min)“豐收(shou)不(bu)增收(shou)”的可能性加大
截(jie)止到(dao)8月底,夏(xia)糧(liang)(liang)總產量達到(dao)2125億(yi)斤(jin),增長(chang)(chang)5.1%;早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)總產量636億(yi)斤(jin),比上(shang)年略有(you)減(jian)少;秋糧(liang)(liang)長(chang)(chang)勢良好,預計全年種(zhong)糧(liang)(liang)面積15.56億(yi)畝左右,如(ru)果(guo)年內(nei)不(bu)出現大(da)的(de)自(zi)然災害,我國秋糧(liang)(liang)豐(feng)收(shou)指(zhi)日可待。豐(feng)收(shou)年份(fen),穩(wen)定糧(liang)(liang)食、農資和(he)農村消(xiao)費(fei)價格(ge),防止谷賤(jian)傷農,顯得(de)尤為(wei)重(zhong)要(yao)。但(dan)8月份(fen),小(xiao)麥、早(zao)秈(xian)稻(dao)(dao)、中秈(xian)稻(dao)(dao)、玉米和(he)大(da)豆價格(ge)同比分別下(xia)(xia)降3%、4.5%、8.1%、6.8%和(he)14%,且環比價格(ge)也(ye)不(bu)同程度下(xia)(xia)降。油菜籽和(he)花生價格(ge)同比下(xia)(xia)降4.9%和(he)10.8%。
與(yu)此同(tong)時,進(jin)口尿素、國產尿素、磷肥、氯化(hua)鉀(jia)、復(fu)合肥價(jia)格(ge)分別(bie)同(tong)比上漲16.5%、13%、19.7%、26.6%和24%,且環比漲幅在1%~4%之(zhi)間。農(nong)膜(mo)和柴油等(deng)價(jia)格(ge)也有14%~24%的不(bu)同(tong)漲幅。糧食(shi)、農(nong)資與(yu)農(nong)村消費價(jia)格(ge)都朝著不(bu)利于(yu)農(nong)民增收的方向變化(hua)。
農(nong)(nong)民增收(shou)問(wen)題(ti)(ti)是“三農(nong)(nong)”問(wen)題(ti)(ti)的重(zhong)中之重(zhong),更是影響宏觀經(jing)濟走勢的重(zhong)大問(wen)題(ti)(ti)。“多予、少(shao)取、松綁、搞活(huo)”固然都(dou)是提高農(nong)(nong)民收(shou)入(ru)、緩解(jie)城鄉(xiang)二元矛盾的有(you)力(li)措(cuo)施(shi),但(dan)這(zhe)些措(cuo)施(shi)仍然多是政府主(zhu)(zhu)導(dao)的行(xing)政手段。倘若(ruo)不能(neng)(neng)形(xing)成(cheng)有(you)利于農(nong)(nong)民增收(shou)的經(jing)濟環境,不能(neng)(neng)給農(nong)(nong)民以平等(deng)的市(shi)場主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)地(di)位,農(nong)(nong)民的狀況很難有(you)根本(ben)性改變,“三農(nong)(nong)”問(wen)題(ti)(ti)也不可能(neng)(neng)從體(ti)制上得以解(jie)決。
在(zai)經(jing)濟上給農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)真正的(de)(de)(de)(de)“國民(min)(min)待遇(yu)”、重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)視加(jia)大對(dui)(dui)提(ti)高(gao)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)自身發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)潛(qian)力(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)公共產(chan)品的(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)入(ru)是(shi)解決問(wen)題(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)根(gen)本之(zhi)(zhi)策。一步到位地拉平城(cheng)鎮人口(kou)與農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)之(zhi)(zhi)間的(de)(de)(de)(de)差距有(you)(you)相當(dang)困難,但(dan)可以優(you)先解決在(zai)城(cheng)市中務(wu)工的(de)(de)(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)(cun)人口(kou)——農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)工的(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題(ti)(ti)。考慮到農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)工的(de)(de)(de)(de)勞動環境和勞動強度,建議把農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)工工資(zi)(zi)(zi)水平規定在(zai)高(gao)于當(dang)地最低工資(zi)(zi)(zi)標準(zhun)之(zhi)(zhi)上;在(zai)完善城(cheng)鎮社會保障工作基(ji)(ji)礎上,探索如何將(jiang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)工納入(ru)社保體(ti)系的(de)(de)(de)(de)方法(fa),享受最基(ji)(ji)本的(de)(de)(de)(de)勞動保障;注(zhu)意協(xie)調涉及農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)工的(de)(de)(de)(de)勞資(zi)(zi)(zi)關系,有(you)(you)力(li)地保護農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)工的(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)法(fa)權益(yi);拓展(zhan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)工的(de)(de)(de)(de)培(pei)訓教(jiao)(jiao)育渠道,提(ti)高(gao)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)工技能(neng)。加(jia)大對(dui)(dui)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)(cun)教(jiao)(jiao)育、健(jian)康、醫療(liao)領(ling)域的(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi),去除制約農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)(cun)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)障礙,增強農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)后(hou)勁,重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在(zai)提(ti)高(gao)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民(min)(min)的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)活質量(liang)。調整(zheng)公共財政對(dui)(dui)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)(cun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)入(ru)比(bi)(bi)例,提(ti)高(gao)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)支(zhi)出(chu)占財政總支(zhi)出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),注(zhu)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)建設(she)(she)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)(cun)健(jian)康衛生(sheng)(sheng)體(ti)系和農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)(cun)地區基(ji)(ji)礎教(jiao)(jiao)育服務(wu)體(ti)系;調整(zheng)固(gu)定資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)中農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),加(jia)強對(dui)(dui)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田基(ji)(ji)礎水利設(she)(she)施的(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi),改善農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)條件;調整(zheng)金融(rong)(rong)信(xin)貸部門對(dui)(dui)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)支(zhi)持力(li)度,更大地發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)金融(rong)(rong)支(zhi)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)作用。推(tui)進(jin)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)(cun)市場流通體(ti)系建設(she)(she),為開拓農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)(cun)市場、拓展(zhan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)(cun)消費創造有(you)(you)利條件。 |